2012 Golden Slipper preview

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The richest two year old race in the world is upon us! There will be 1000 different opinions about the race and that’s what makes it so good. Unfortunately All Too Hard is not running and it does take a little bit away from the race as I do think he is our best two year old. I’m hoping they pulled the right reign but over the years I feel a heap of trainers of run on horses have fallen into the trap of thinking 1400m will suit their horse, but when they turn up its run at a slow pace and they are no hope. That same horse can run in a slipper that is run at a hectic pace and their horse may well have run over the top of the slipper field late.

 Anyway let’s get down to the slipper and I thought a lot of people may appreciate my take on the form, so here is how I see the Slipper for 2012.

John O’Shea has three runners in the race who have drawn barriers 13,14,15. He has said that FAUSTUS will be put into the race by going forward. He has also said that he would have liked SHELFORD to have been put into the race earlier last start as he likes to be in the battle. ASHOKAN was on pace last start and fought very hard to win. So on my map they all push forward, the problem for them is LATOR GATOR and DRIEFONTEIN will both be going forward inside them and AMORINO, PIERRO, EPAULETTE, NO LOOKING BACK and SNITZERLAND will all try to be within a few lengths of the lead and try to make use of their good gates. This makes the first 300m or so a very good tempo and horses who can get a cheap run just behind the speed and conserve some juice for later will be highly advantaged.

SAMAREADY is a very interesting case. If she had drawn perfectly it would be hard to see anything beating her, but from gate 11 Newitt will have to do his best to get some type of cover (best case scenario is RACEWAY’s back) If she gets some cover and a tow into it she can run over them, but I’d be lying if I said the gate wasn’t a little issue. She has been the dominant two year old and deserves to be favourite in the ‘grand final’.

 RACEWAY is the horse who seems to be over the odds @ $13 on TattsBet . The biggest price he has started in his three starts is $2.45, and his only loss was on a wet track last start where he had little luck, was hampered on the turn and where it was very hard to make ground out wide early in the day, yet he was only beaten ¾ of a length.  I will be having something on at that price.

PIERRO, EPAULETTE, SNITZERLAND and NO LOOKING BACK all get sweet runs and it’s easy to make a case for each. PIERRO was qualified early and Gai has just plotted a course to get the horse peaking for slipper day, she has not had to have him wound up for the lead ups. There could be sharp improvement from him and if that’s the case he has to be right in this up to his ears! I have not always been as keen on him as others but watching him work into this campaign I love what I see and he is my on top selection. EPAULETTE had every chance to beat PIERRO last start when he sat on that horses back, got a cart into the race, went straight past only to get beaten on the line. I also think PIERRO may have more scope for improvement so I find it hard to see him turning the tables on PIERRO, but he can be in the money. NO LOOKING BACK was wide in the Diamond and made ground in a race which no others were able to do. She gets a good gate here but my issues with her is running in Magic Millions, Blue Diamond and then the slipper? 3 grand finals? If Gai pulled this off it would be one of her great achievements. SNITZERLAND looked very disappointing last start but the word coming out of Sydney is that she has trained in blinkers and turned in a sizzling gallop! So the blinkers go on, lugging bit on and race plates as well. If she turns up and gets the gun run throughout she will give them a fright.

I think a few at big odds that may run better than the odds suggest are NARCISSUS, JADE MARAUDER and ASHOKAN. It is hard to see them beating the others but exotic players may want to give some type of thought to them.

*It looks a great race and LUCK will play a massive part! It is always difficult when working with the two year olds but I’ve simply gone for the horse who I feel is still well on the way up and who the hot pace will suit- PIERRO. With any luck from the gate SAMAREADY is the obvious horse to beat. RACEWAY and SNITZERLAND are the two that I feel are ‘overs’ and capable of an upset.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My 2012 Slipper selections.

1-PIERRO

9-SAMAREADY

3-RACEWAY

13-SNITZERLAND

2-EPAULETTE

 

*There are some special bet types with TattsBet, so click on the TATTS link on the home page of brissyraces to check them out.

Good luck if you have a bet, and remember to do it responsibly.

*Our weekend preview ‘The Punt’ will be up some time Friday, so remember to check in for all the latest mail.