A look at the Doomben Cup 2013

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Time to look at the Doomben Cup. I am not massive on stats as most things racing have now changed with overseas horses etc dominating the races 2000m+ and they are doing things completely different than what we expect, but here are a few things to consider.

Race : DOOMBEN CUP 2020m

 Binoculars

Favourites: The fav’s do have a very good record in this race with 13 winning over the last 29 years.

*There has only been two winners over $10 in the last 10 years. I simply think that is the case as there are usually a few smart trainers who take a step back and target this carnival while the best of the best race against each other in Sydney.

 

BARRIERS: Little importance really. Obviously if it is the capacity 16 you would rather not be there but most years it is around 11 runners and not many will be caught 3 wide.

 

*Prices below are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

*The race this year looks to be a little down on quality and although it can be famous last words there does seem limited chances in the Cup.

LIGHTS OF HEAVEN $3.60 had a terrific winter carnival last year and she does seem to be going just slightly better this year. She handles all conditions and the WFA scale suits her. She comes off a great Hollindale win where she had a freshen up between runs and dropped back 200m to the 1800m. She was very strong late there and out to the 2020m is going to play into her strength.

This year she has to beat the in-form FORETELLER $3.20 who is racing in career best form with a big Sydney carnival. He won the Group 1 Ranvet 2000m and then was only beaten 1.4L in the G1 BMW 2400m. He also dropped back to the 1800m of the Hollindale and was the run of the race on that occasion. He also handles all conditions and you would expect these two will dominate betting.

Outside of them LAMSERY $5.50 has claims 3rd up here and you would expect he may have the most improvement out of the Hollindale. SECRET ADMIRER is $17 and with some rain about early in the week I think she may well be the forgotten horse and one of very few who could upset the favourites.

 

*Not everyone likes to take early prices in feature markets because there is no guarantee that your horse even makes the start which is a fair point. However I will be taking the two fav’s into SURVIVED $4.20 in the QLD Derby because I think he is a super staying prospect. If the rain sticks around I may even have a cheap longshot attempt with Secret Admirer into Survived at much bigger odds..

Just some food for thought and a quick look into this year’s Doomben Cup.