Over the last few carnivals punters have got in contact with me and asked for my views on some feature events in advance as they are keen to get involved in the early market betting. I have decided that there is still some value there as we are just over a week away from the Caulfield cup and then of course we move on to the Cox plate and Melbourne cup etc.
I will put the horses that interest me in order and ther will be some internationals amongst them. I will state why I favour them and you can do what you like with the information.
The Cups:
(Prices are given by tatts.com )
MIDAS TOUCH– He is my number one horse for both cups. I do however think 3200m around Flemington will be perfect for this guy. He sits in the first few in running and just sticks on like all good stayers. I don’t see track conditions affecting his chances either. He is pretty much fool proof and that’s what you like in pre post betting. His last two runs have been outstanding and the further they go, the better he will be.
Current price: $9 Caulfield Cup — $14 Melbourne Cup.
AT FIRST SIGHT– Another Lloyd Williams horse and this one may be more suited to the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup, but could still win ‘the big one’ too. He gets back a touch in his races and does have a very good sprint when he is let down. Has improved each run and will be peaking for the cups.
Current Price- $8 Caulfield Cup — $17 Melbourne Cup.
AMERICAIN– Melbourne Cup bound and is the champion from last year. Lot’s of people want to say the weight is too much and he is not going as well, but I disagree. He was terribly unlucky and has to be forgiven for his last run. He also blew away the best Cup field in a decade! His margin was pretty big last year beating Maluckyday and So You Think, and he can repeat the dose.
Current Price- Melbourne Cup $11
LUCAS CRANACH– The spruik horse of the carnival. It has happened many times before where a horse has been talked up and failed dismally, but this horse seems to have an incredible sprint which is a huge factor in the cups. He has a nice weight and can go on all surfaces. They have not decided on whether he runs in the Caulfield Cup yet, but you would have to think you would go that way? It is a $2 million race! He will settle back at Flemington and should find the line hard.
Current Price— $17 Caulfield Cup — $12 Melbourne Cup.
JUKEBOX JURY– Will only run in the Melbourne cup, but will be on the pace and has the ability to kick off a decent pace. He may be the real deal and is coming into this as one of the form horses in Europe after a dead heat in the Irish St Leger. He has been bought (50%) by the same interests as Americain and they look to have a couple of the major chances.
*** December Draw id the horse to beat in the Caulfield Cup, no doubt about it, but he is a very small price around $3.
Cox Plate: (Markets suspended when I was typing)
HELMET– It seems as if Snowden has worked out Helmet’s tricks and he was really good in winning last start. The Guineas this weekend is a major test, but if he runs as expected he will cut his current quote in half. He can settle up near the front which is a massive advantage in the Cox plate with his lightweight he will receive at WFA. He is a star on the rise and this is right up his alley. High class three tear olds have a decent record and he fits the bill.
REKINDLED INTEREST– Really nice win around the track two starts back and then went to the Turnbull last week where he produced some nice sectionals to prove he is still right on track for his grand final. Loves the Moonee Valley track and he will be allowed to balance up and will be hitting the line hard.
LION TAMER– His Underwood 1800m win was excellent and he will only be stronger in the 2040m. Rain would only enhance his chances as he won the derby on a bog track last year. I feel he is really underrated and not far off the other kiwi Jimmy Choux, but this bloke is twice the price.
GLASS HARMOIUM– When he draws a gate and rolls along as he did last week he is unbelievably hard to get past and you would expect the Valley circuit to suit him perfectly. He can play a major role.
**JIMMY CHOUX is the $4.50 fav and again I do think he is a great chance but don’t see any value there what so ever.
OTHER FEATURE RACES:
ATLANTIC JEWEL– Looks to have a mortgage on the 1000 guineas but there will be a lot of people not wanting to take the $1.80 this far out. (I have taken it in a few)
CHASE THE RAINBOW– Seems to be on the Derby path and the fact he relaxes so well in his races gives him an excellent chance to take out the big group 1.
Things can change quickly in racing as you would all know, but that is how I see them at this stage of the game. Make what you want of the picks and good luck if you already have some on.
