With one of the biggest races of the carnival so far and with the fields being released on Wednesday’s I thought it would be a good opportunity to put up a look into the Australian Guineas through my eyes as we do of a Saturday on the Brisbane races for members. If you do know people who are interested in racing, I have put this page under ‘this just in’ so they can see it without being a member. So tell them to check it out, or send them a link if you think they would like it and remind them it’s FREE to join. The more people we get on the more we can expand and have fun with the site.
So this is my early look into the Group 1 Guineas at Flemington:
The Australian Guineas:
This sets up to be a fantastic race. Some are saying it is below the level of this race in past years, I say rubbish! Some of these are untapped and have the potential to be anything! And with nearly all the favourites drawing wide except for Playing God, there will be some pressure on some jockeys to produce good rides and get cover on some of the main chances.
First of all there is no question the run of the race will go to Playing God from an inside gate which will allow Prebble to possie up wherever he wants. This really does bring him into the race as a serious chance (if he already wasn’t). He has won at WFA and his first up win should have him primed for this. The rest of the main chances in the market have drawn wide and are get back horses. Under The Eiffel (10), Bullbars (11), We Can Say It Now (12) and Southern Speed (20) will all go back and their jockeys will all be looking to get on each others backs to be towed into the race at about the 600m.
Under The Eiffel is one of our black bookers and is an exceptional horse, but this is the top grade and he has a little tendency to lay in down the straight and it is hard to win group 1’s if you don’t do everything right, however he can run quick sectionals, and there has been support for him this week. There will be a good tempo here with Dusty Star and Run For Levi as well as others who like to go forward, that should allow horses to run on. Bullbars was awesome winning the Hayes, and you can’t take anything away from him, he will get back but should be in a decent spot from a midfield barrier.
We Can Say It Now comes from NZ with big wraps and deserves a lot of respect, her trainers are as good as anyone and know a good horse when they see it, and they say she is super, so take note. She has won at WFA already (by four lengths, over 1600m) and run well behind Keep The Peace and King Mufasa which have both franked the form their next start. I am warming to her more and more, and think she may be great value around the $7 each way if you shop around.
Another of our black bookers and the horse I have been very keen on in this for a while is Southern Speed. After her last run I would not have been surprised if she went through her preparation unbeaten as she stepped up in distance. Unfortunately for her she has drawn the outside gate, and I do still think she will run a very good race it is hard to steer people into a horse that may be caught wide the entire trip. If the pace is hot and she gets cover look out, because she will be running over them late.
I see there as being a couple who could be blowout’s here without surprising, and Enjine Number Nine is one that I won’t be leaving out of multiples. His run two starts ago was excellent blowing away Star Witness and Bullbars, while his last start was very solid hitting the lead and getting run down late on an inferior part of the track that day. I believe the trick to him is to sick quite for as long as possible and let him explode late as he has the ability to reel off a very quick furlong. I am not sure if they will ride him like that but from gate seven Oliver has every opportunity to hold him up for that run and don’t be surprised if he bobs up somewhere.
They are what I see as the main hopes, but it is a very open race. Anacheeva may also race in blinkers in which would be a very interesting gear change from Moody, check out your race guides to see if they have applied the blinkers, it very well might just spark him back too his best form which seen him take out the Caulfield Guineas last year. And on a Queensland note, Startsmeup has a bad gate (17) but is over the odds currently at $51, his last run to get beat less than a head by Bullbars puts him in with some sort of chance.
My Early Tip: The bet I will be having is:
We Can Say It Now e/w — at around $7 is good value and should run very well.
My selections in order for the Guineas for the multiples are:
15 – We Can Say It Now
16- Southern Speed
13- Enjin Number Nine
2- Playing God
7- Bullbars
If you do have a bet—Good Luck and bet responsibly!
** I hope people enjoyed our ‘one on one’ with Mitchell Wood, a young star on the rise.
Reminder to all our members that our “punt” section for the Brisbane races will be up Friday afternoon/night, so get on to get the rundown and latest for Saturdays racing. NZ international Luke Covell is going for his fourth straight winning week as our celebrity tipster, so check out his tip also!
Also a horse i feel is over the odds in early markets in Brisbane is Rothera, I got $12 yesterday and is around $8 today. The rain is predicted to come and he grows a leg in the wet. For those who like the fixed odds market that is good shopping as he will be shorter with each rain droplet!
Cheers
Gibbo.
