Brissyraces- On ‘THE PUNT’ July 27- Doomben

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Back into ‘The Punt’ for another week. Hopefully punters found a few winners with some value in the preview last week. This week we head to Doomben and hopefully the rain can hold off and we are able to race on a Dead track (fingers crossed). That is very important as two of my best bets really need a dead track at worst.

Remember this preview is done early so check in after 9am Saturday for any changes when the preview is final.

This is just my look at the Brissy card and you can make what you want of the information. As you can see by the photo here Brissyraces is everywhere!

*Looks as though TATTS have put on a Jackpot FIRST4 on each race at Doomben. $25,000 to kick each pool off!

 

Track- DOOMBEN

Surface- (Thursday arvo it was SLOW 6, but with fine weather I expect DEAD)

Rail-  +3Mblackbook

 

Blackbook Runners:

Nadeem Lass – Caulfield R3 No.1 (1400m): Big weight slight concern but she is flying!
Little Bit Ditsy – Doomben R2 No.9 (1200m): Very even race and big show here.
Gallinari – Doomben R8 No.15 (1200m): Worth thought at a nice price.
Masterful Play – Doomben R8 No.20 (1200m): Does he get a run?

 

 

RACE 1:

We kick the day off with what could be one of the best bets. BRIBIE(SCRATCHED now) is simply a good weather horse, 1200m at Doomben. His record this track trip 8: 4-1-0 is outstanding and his run was good on a wet track over unsuitable trip last time. Importantly Goold claims 3kg and that will be a feather weight to what the big grey is used to carrying. Very important the track is DEAD or better and I would be very keen.

ALDINI has a great 2nd up record (last time in won this track/trip 2nd up) and was very good at Grafton.

Matt Dunn will get a win out of TICKET TO DREAM shortly but she also wants it dry.

*My Bet: BRIBIE(SCR) if track is dead or better.

On Top: 6- ALDINI

Hardest To Beat: 10- TICKET TO DREAM

 Matt Dunn Racing

 

Race 2:

A few nice horses engaged here. AGITATE is hard to knock. Carried 58.5kg last start and was too good. Only goes up 1kg in this, Colless will ride him quiet again and no reason he won’t be thereabouts again.

TERONADO is a very talented galloper who looked to be winning on raw talent first prep. This may be short of his best trip but fresh with a bit of pace on, coming back a gelding and Browne on board he will take a stack of holding out late.

I felt LITTLE BIT DITSY may have been looking for further now but from the good gate she just goes on top for me. Gate 3, Cahill and natural improvement third time to the track steered me to her.

Must respect EXCEEDINGLY who trialled extremely well. VOODOO BLUE MAGIC who couldn’t have done much more last prep, and REGAL CONSERVE who will improve from the debut effort.

*Good race and plenty of chances!

On Top:  9- LITTLE BIT DITSY

Hardest To Beat:  2- TERONADO,  1- AGITATE,  8- EXCEEDINGLY

 

 

 

Race 3:

Can I pass?

At first glance CARMINE KING does look the winner. He won easy here in a similar race last start and claims 2kg for Allen, so he gets in nice. He handles all conditions and gets a nice run behind the speed. My only thing is at around $2.20 in early markets it’s just a price I cant take. I’d be happy to find value and if he got out to around $3 on raceday I may have something on then.

SOLEBID is the horse I think is going better than his form reads. I don’t think the 1600m has suited his last couple and he has fought well. Not much pace other than BEEBY GEM in this and he should be able to tack across and sit outside the lead. He opened at $8 on Tatts, that may be about right but he may get a touch longer too.

KEEP IT MOIST was heavily backed last start and on face value wasn’t that good. Keep him safe because where there is smoke, there is often fire. MR ORIENT was better than him on that occasion and can run well here. He rarely wins but is very consistent.

Value:  3-SOLEBID

Others:  1-CARMINE KING,  7- KEEP IT MOIST,  8- MR ORIENT

 MaluaRacing...

 

Race 4:

No idea what to make of this race and I won’t be betting. PEPPERWOOD couldn’t run out of sight all prep and then runs out of his skin behind Loaded? Too hard to catch for me.

BID SPOTTER surely improves from Grafton run 3rd up here. Can he make up the 3.5L he needs to on GAROZZO who beat him that far on that occasion? GAROZZO will also improve off that.

Whenever Browne is on MUKADDAMAH SON he must be respected and the horse just seems to run for him.

*Don’t know.

Working around the  1,2,3,4.pineapple

 

 

Race 5:

A good 1010m sprint.

Matt Dunn has had a frustrating time with the rain about. QFIGHTER is simply a dry track horse and he won’t go on anything worse than dead. If the track gets to that Dunn has found a perfect race for the grey. From gate 6 Wigging will ring him patient but doesn’t have to get too far out of his ground. He will come hard late and is the one to beat. $5 + $1.90 good on www.tatts.com if track suits.

BUCKMOORE may be old but may also slip under the radar. Good gate, 52.5kg and only beaten a nose by Cape Kidnappers means $17 is over the odds in my eyes.

LENNIE’S CHOICE, who knows? Looked a super star early on. Had a big weight but every chance last week… Maybe.

I’M COOL was horrible in Grafton and just seems very hard to catch this prep. Some hope on best form from the gate. The mares PURE PURRFECTION and MERRYANNA may have to spot them a start from their gates but will be strong late. (Don’t be surprised if they went forward on PP this time)

*My Bet- Dead track= QFIGHTER

On Top: 13- QFIGHTER

Hardest To Beat:  5- BUCKMOORE,  7- LENNIE’S CHOICE

 

 

 

Race 6:

Bit of a dangerous race. Very surprised they didn’t claim on FLYING HOME. 59kg is a big ask over the 2100m. I guess gate 1 is an asset this time and hopefully Byrne decides to take a sit behind the leaders 4th-5th. No doubt that is the way to ride him and he is still my top selection.

THIRSTY FOR BLOOD very consistent.

CLANGOR going as well as ever and meets fav 0.5kg better off for beating him last start.

AWESOME RANSOME, RETUNE, MOMENT TO REMEMBER and ESCOFFIER the other chances for those looking for a blowout in the quaddie.

On Top:  1- FLYING HOME

Others: 3- CLANGOR, 5- RETUNEtattsbet

 

 

 

Race 7:

I have been wrapping the MR TESTA form lines for a couple of months now. Horses like Casino Card, Thirsty For Blood and Clangor have all come out and run extremely well in town. He is again in ok here with 55kg. He is tough and can grind out a win but he may have to be here as I expect pace early and the awkward gate is not ideal. Still the one to beat.

I have landed on I’M BUSTED because of the speed I expect. Hopefully Hammersley drops he back early because I think he’d be extremely strong late getting back up to the 1615m. It was just too wet last week and too hard to make up the ground over the 1400m. B.Smith horses on the back-up, watch out. He will be $17-21.

ROCKSAN, SPECIAL MISS, GUNENR KNOX and especially CASSE SQARETTE can all have cases made for them. (NOTE- you can get a guide on the CASSE SQARETTE through GARROZZO in Race 4. They finished alongside each other in the Sth Grafton Cup. How he goes may be a pointer)

GUNNER KNOX can run well at the 1615m from an inside draw

On Top: 3- MR TESTA

Hardest To Beat:   5- CASSE SQARETTE, 13- ROCKSAN, 2- GUNNER KNOX

 

 

 

Race 8:

Hard to see them beating DISCREET. She is simply a better horse than these and when she gets the right runs she usually beats 3 year olds. She had to go back to last and looked a good thing beaten a fortnight ago. From gate 7 it looks tailor made and bad luck in running could be the main danger. I thought she’d be shorter than the $3.50 + $1.63 in early markets.

AVALADYLUCK is going very well this time in and ran well behind DISCREET two runs back. She meets her 1.5kg better off for being beaten 1.3L on that occasion. She hung out bad last start but at her best she will run well.

A few at very big odds to consider- SPECIAL LIE $41, GALLINARI $51 and MASTERFUL PLAY if he gets a run $35.

*My Bet- Discreet

On Top: 2- DISCREET

 

 

 

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

*Brisbane Race 8 No.2 DISCREET

Next Best- *Brisbane Race 5 No.13 QFIGHTER

 

 

This weeks best ‘Longshot’- *Brisbane Race 7 No.12 I’M BUSTED  (Now scratched)

 

BRISBANE QUADRELLA:

 

5,7,13 —- 1,2,3,4,5 —– 2,3, 5, 13, 14 —–  2

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 2 No.2 TERONADO

Melbourne Race 7 No.11 COMMITTED

 

TATTS JACKPOTS and MARKET MOVERS.TattsBet

 

 DOOMBEN

2/2 Teronado $9/$7.5

3/4 Billy Aucash $31/$21

 

RANDWICK  Nothing of note to report

 

CAULFIELD

1/12 Monkstone $3.3/$3.0

3/11 Text’N Hurley $5/$4

5/9 Octavia $4.4/$3.7

6/3 Second Effort $5/$4.6

 

 

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 27 July 2013

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

DOOMBEN (BR)

ALL

$25,000

-

F4

DARWIN (DR)

6

$10,000

METRIC MILE

EX

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

8

$9,624

0 – 75 HANDICAP

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

5

$1,000

WINTER C’SHIP FINAL

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

7

$1,000

WINTER CUP

F4

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

5

$2,000

GOLDEN NURSERY FINAL (2YO C&G)

F4

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

7

$2,000

GOLDEN NURSERY FINAL (2YO FILLIES)

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$20,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$10,000

C1 TO C2

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

THE MEADOWS (MG)

6

$1,000

DISTANCE C’SHIP FINAL

F4

THE MEADOWS (MG)

8

$1,000

MATURITY CLASSIC FINAL

F4

CANNINGTON (PG)

5

$1,000

WINTER CUP FINAL

 

*Bet responsibly

 

Thanks for checking in and good luck if you have a bet on the weekend!