Brissyraces- ‘THE PUNT’ 20th July

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It’s groundhog day- Rain predicted again leading into the weekend and increasing Saturday.. That makes it likely to be a Heavy track but as we know these things can change very quickly, however a heap of rain race-day spells big trouble for the meeting.

Track- EAGLE FARM

Surface

Rail – TRUE

Preview is done on a –    SLOW/HEAVY surface.

**Note- You will notice the ‘Print’ option on the articles now. Like I say the weekend preview will be final after 9am of a Saturday so that would probably be the best time to be able to Print ‘The Punt’ out and head to the pub or track. You can also find print outs at The Pineapple Hotel in Brissy. blackbook

Also this week I am thinking about putting a bet I’ll possibly have. Not a suggested bet as I don’t want people to feel they should punt, but at least get a guide to what I will be doing. The wet does obviously make it a bit tough doing a preview days early.

BLACKBOOK runners: (very light on this weekend!)

SATURDAY, 20 JULY 2013

Henwood – Flemington R7 No.6 (1000m):

Sacred Flyer – Rosehill R7 No.6 (2000m):

**Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing

Race 1:

No. Not betting, not interested.

pineapple

Race 2:

A pretty even bunch here.

SECRET HARMONY $4.40 won well last start but it was a brilliant ride and that may have flattered it? No reason that can’t happen again if McMahon finds the front and pulls the handbrake on again. Surely the other jocks don’t want their pants pulled down again and don’t give him a holiday in front.

RUSTY COLOURS $5.50 is an interesting runner, jumps to the 1600m and gets the blinkers off. No doubt he will be better for a run over the trip, but he is a swimmer and if he gets a wet EF surface he is right in this on the back-up.

Although a maiden OUTSTRIP has had no luck this prep, he should have won in Sydney and then was no chance with the tempo last start. On a good track I’d be willing to be on him again, just not sure about a genuine wet. Don’t write him off.

OLOROSO, RUDY, MY BELOVED, NUDE SECRETS and OUTBACK LIGHTNING will have support and have to be chances in a race like this.

*Thinking SECRET HARMONY up on pace. RUSTY COLOURS could be the swooper and OUTSRIP some value in tri’s. Great betting race.

On Top: 2- SECRET HARMONY

Hardest To Beat:   14- OUTSTRIP,  5- RUSTY COLOURS

 

 

Race 3:

Thinking DOUBLE IMPACT gets his chance here. Back to a genuinely wet track, good gate to fall out and sit a touch closer. The 2kg claim is a help and after a couple of runs at this trip he’s ready to run well here. If he touched double figure odds I’d be having something on.

VIKING HEART and MIKEN both went very good with little between them last start. MICKEN may like the wet more but VIKING HEART will enjoy the drop back to 1600m possibly.

BALLYBIT pretty much unknown on a wet surface so keep an eye on the money trail..

*My bet- Double Impact e/w  @ $8 + $2.40 early markets.Matt Dunn Racing

On Top:  1- DOUBLE IMPACT

Hardest To Beat: 4-MIKEN,  2- VIKING HEART

 

 

 

Race 4:

GOTITALLWRONG (scratched midweek for this) is a 3yr old filly who has just taken time to mature in my mind. She ran well and made ground 2 runs back on a track where that was a tough task. She then come out and ground away a good win beating Jaquetta who went around again Wednesday and ran a narrow 2nd again. She is right in this.

I’M BUSTED could be value if the wet hits. He is another grinder who puts his head out and stable is in form. Liked his last win at 1600m and rock hard fit dropping back here. LEICA BITA LIPPY only second up but also likes it wet.

STOLEN KISSES likely to start fav. No luck 2 runs back and ran well behind DANSAL a fortnight ago. I have a slight question on that form but this isn’t any harder.

Hard to line up ROUVRAY who looks as though he is starting to deliver but he has been winning or running well in 5 horse fields and that can be deceiving. The wetter the better for him.

My Bet: E/w Gotitallwrong at the $6

On Top:  7- GOTITALLWRONG  $6

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Race 5:

Track surface the key here. Top 3 standout but all would rather it slow or better. Was keen to see VINTAGE MOSS (SCRATCHED) back on top of the ground as he is ready to show his best again but rain would be a concern. If it comes as expected CARMINE KING is every chance to go back to back. Browne stays on and he only rises 1g from the good win last start.

HIDDEN KISSES (SCRATCHED)has the class in the race and only has to be somewhere near her best here. 2kg claim for Schmidt the key and off a freshen up she will be right in the finish. I think she could probably find the back of CARMINE KING (SCRATCHED) here and follow him into it. At around the $12 I may be tempted to have something on her.

Best of the roughies may be DON’T GET ME RONG (SCR) who is a swimmer and split Aldini- Lady Colours last start at Grafton.

*How much rain has fallen? Not sure if I will be betting or not.. Scratching’s open this up.

On Top:
Not interested now.

 

 

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Race 6:

3yr olds dominate the market. LENNIE’S CHOICE $3.40, QFIGHTER $3.60 and TOM’S LUCK (SCRATCHED) $8 are above avg and take on just an avg field here. Big question on QFIGHTER(SCRATCHED) running if the rain hits. He is the one to beat if it somehow stays dry.

LENNIE’S CHOICE was a flop at the Sunny coast but there were a lot of proven wet trackers getting beaten 15+ lengths that day. He was going extremely well including a 7L win over More Colours who has won sice. 58kg makes it hard but Cahill is a huge bonus.

TOM’S LUCK was very good 1st up and may well have come back a better horse this prep. If the 1st up run didn’t flatten him he may be over the odds.

Anyone going very wide in Quads can consider 1,2,4,8,12.

On Top:  3- LENNIE’S CHOICE

Hardest To Beat:  2- DR BARNARD

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Tatts

Race 7:

Rain makes this tough. Very few wet trackers of note, just DOUBTFUL JACK and he’s going ordinary. WHATEVERWHENEVER $6 the other real mudder but she seems a few lengths off her top also. She was good in a group 1 here two runs ago and ok behind Mic Mac in Syd and he would win this.

BENNY’S BUTTONS going well enough. Handles most conditions and should get a good run just behind the pace. $3.60 seems a bit skinny in such an open race.

GREY ASSIGNMENT is $26 and was only beaten 3.7L by Excellantes 1st up last prep. Was beaten less than that fresh the prep before. In a race with few chances he goes into my Quad as possible value.

SHAFEEQ can settle up front and lead at his leisure. That is a massive positive for him and he can be very hard to catch with 54kg on his back. He was strong at the 1200m 1st up and goes like a bomb 2nd up (3 wins from 4 runs).

Hard to make a case for many others on a genuine wet track but GUNDY SON was in great form before staying in the gates at Grafton.

**Hard to split a few here. I’d follow money for SHAFEEQ or BENNY’S BUTTONS if it happened to come.

On Top:  

5- SHAFEEQ,  4- BENNY’S BUTTONS,  8-WHATEVERWHENEVER

 

 

 

Race 8:

I thought MISHANI EDGE was better than CHEVAL DE FEU in Grafton, he is $15 and CDF is $8? The problem again is the weather, his wet track form is pretty ordinary and hard to have on that alone.

DANSAL beat ELLAWISDOM $6 and SEEN $7 last start. I have slight questions over that form and there wasn’t much between them. DANSAL meets them both 1kg better off. I do feel the 1600m is far more suitable for ELLAWISDOM and SEEN- A mile at E-F on a wet surface suits them both. SEEN looks like a grinder and Colless should really suit the horse in my opinion.

LADY ECHELON $4 is the horse who comes out of the good form races. She was probably in the worst part of the track when beaten 2.7L by Eximius, Lucky Hussler and co. That’s better form than others bring in. She drops 1kg and is the horse to beat.

ITCHINTOWIN far from the worst and these conditions should suit. Ran well last week in a good race and on the backup to 1600m.

HEZA JETSETTER would pick these up and spit them out at his best. He has been disappointing this prep but his last run was his best this time in. He does however meet LADY ECHELON 2.5kg worse off at the weights for being beaten, but don’t sell him short.

My Bet:  Trifecta:  6,9 —- 1,6,7,8,9 —– 1,3,5,6,7,8,9

 

On Top:  6- LADY ECHELON   +   9- SEEN

 

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Race 9:

CASINO CARD has had a very good prep. Not a lot of luck when lumping 58kg at Grafton and was only beaten 1.3L by Eximius in the Sunny coast guineas before that. Drops to 55kg here after the claim, he has a terrific wet track record and can sit where he wants in the run from the good gate. He is the horse to beat.

BAUKAW by far the best horse at double figure odds if we are on Slow or Heavy. An easy winner 3 runs back with 59kg, then a very good 2nd to the in-form Mr Testa (1500m EF heavy). Forgive latest run and he has to be given serious thought.

BROWNE goes on LITTLE LONG HORN, he is 3rd up and should be ready to stike his best form. Both runs this prep have been decent and this is no harder.

BIG DECISION (SCRATCHED)gets to a mile for the first time but did finish off strong late behind Dansal a fortnight ago.

My Bet: QUINELLA- 2,3,4

On Top: 2- CASINO CARD

Hardest To Beat: 3- LITTLE LONG HORN

Value:  4- BUAKAW

Brissyraces Image

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**REMEMBER- This preview is up early and is a guide only at present, so be sure to check back in after 9am Saturday.

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Each way-

Race 4 No.7- GOTITALLWRONG

 

BRISBANE QUADDIE:

2,3,12 —- 1,4,5 —- 6,7,9 —– 2,3,4

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This weeks best ‘Longshot’:

Race 9 No.4 BUAKAW (Not that rough at $12 but may touch $15+)

Also Melbourne Race 6 No.8 STREETS OF SEATTLE $15

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Melbourne (jackpot) Quaddie:

5,6 —– 1,5,8,9,14 —– 1,2,4,5,6,8 —– 2,3,4,7,9

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‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

Sydney Race 6 No.10 WAZN

Sydney Race 7 No.6 SACRED FLYER

TATTS MARKET MOVERS and JACKPOTStattsbet

EAGLE FARM

4/2 Rouvray $4.6/$4.2

8/10 Red Hot Dazzler $31/$26

9/9 Heart Of Many $26/$19

 

ROSEHILL

1/1 Bull Point $2.2/$2.0

 

FLEMINGTON

3/2 Longeron $12/$9.5

5/6 Road Trippin’ $3.8/$3.5

8/9 Counted $14/$10

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

TattsBet_NoTM

 

for

Saturday, 20 July 2013

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

DARWIN (DR)

7

$10,000

NT DERBY

QD

FLEMINGTON (MR)

-

$150,000

RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$20,000

M1 ONLY

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

4

$2,000

QBRED TRIAD FINAL (2YO C&G)

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

6

$2,000

THE BLACKS A FAKE

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

7

$2,000

QBRED TRIAD FINAL (2YO FILLIES)

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$40,000

CLAIMING SERIES FINAL

EX

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$9,883

C1 TO C2