CAULFIELD CUP preview 2013

Print Friendly

Apparently the weather has been ok (very windy) and we should be racing on a perfect track at Caulfield. I say should be as there has been a big discussion from all sides this week about how hard the track races late in the day, and of course now the feature races are last race of the day, meaning some horses are inclined to ‘feel’ the jar in the track. This is an argument for another day, but it is worth thinking that your horse would like to have a history of enjoying a hard track.

TRACK- CAULFIELDCCup

Rail =  +6m

Field:

1 MANIGHAR– Luke Nolen 11   58kg

2 DANDINO –Craig Williams 19   56.5kg

 3 ETHIOPIA– Rhys McLeod 14   56.5kg

4 WALDPARK –Brenton Avdulla 8   56kg

5 GLENCADAM GOLD –Tommy Berry 6   55.5kg

6 MR MOET– Hugh Bowman 10   55.5kg

7 FAWKNER –Nicholas Hall 12   55kg

8 JET AWAY– Damien Oliver 13   55kg

9 KELINNI –Steven Arnold 1   55kg

10 MORIARTY –Craig Newitt 18  55kg

11 MY QUEST FOR PEACE –Corey Brown 4   55kg

12 HAWKSPUR –Jim Cassidy 16   54.5kg TattsBet

13 JULIENAS– Kerrin McEvoy 15   54.5kg

14 MR O’CEIRIN– Dwayne Dunn 20   54.5kg

15 SILENT ACHIEVER– Glen Boss 5   54.5kg

16 ROYAL DESCENT– Nash Rawiller 3  54kg

17 TUSCAN FIRE–Luke Currie 2   53.5kg

18 DEAR DEMI– James McDonald 22 53kg

EMERGENCIES

19e FORGOTTEN VOICE –Brett Prebble 7   54.5kg

20e SNEAK A PEEK–  17 54kg

21e IBICENCO– 9 54kg – SCRATCHED

22e OASIS BLOOM –21 51.5kg


The Caulfield Cup – Group 1  – 2400m Handicap.

At first glance there does not seem to be a great deal of pressure in the race but with the short run to the first turn there is nearly always genuine pressure early. There may be a chance for GLENCADAM GOLD, JULIENAS and MR OCEIRIN to slow them down mid-race but I would be surprised if that happened and this wasn’t run to give every horse a chance.

There are some decent winds predicted so cover is a must around here, and gates may have a big bearing.

What about the barrier draw?? Nearly all the fav’s have come up with horror gates. That makes for a very open race. As usual, luck will play a major part!

DANDINO is a very interesting horse. He has raced well all around the world and the most important thing is that all reports are he has travelled very well! He is suited to our racing as it looks as though he has some tactical speed but can race anywhere in the field which gives Williams plenty of options. He will be extremely strong late and just needs some luck from 19 to be in the finish. I’d assume Williams will get him to the outside.

The horse who is flying at present is HAWKSPUR. He come off a dominant winter in QLD and has carried that onto bigger races leading up to this. His first-up run and his Turnbull run the other day have just been phenomenal! He deserves to start favourite here and this could well be ‘Pumper’ Cassidy’s 100th Group 1 winner. The light weight of just 55kg is also another plus at the end of 2400m. He is another who has the bad gate- 16. Does Cassidy try to slot in midfield and risk being trapped out? Or does he go right back?

Forget ROYAL DESCENT went around in the Turnbull after a couple of severe checks and interference. I get the feeling she would like the ‘sting’ out of the track which she won’t get, but as I said that is just my feeling. She will sit in a nice spot without spending a penny from gate 3 and look for Nash producing her on straightening. A very good mare and a win would not surprise.

The real unknown is FAWKNER. Better at Flemington? Will he run 2400m? Both good questions but you would be game to say ‘no’. 3rd in the main lead up race is a great pointer and he may be ridden a little bit quieter here to allow him to see the trip out. I had a lazy little something on at $51 a couple of weeks ago so I am obviously a bit hopeful!

The other very good lead up run in my mind was JET AWAY- off a long break he went to 2000m fresh, was wide after getting interference and was still fighting the finish out. It was as good as any horse in that race and he should obviously take more benefit out of that run than his opposition here would have. He is a live chance and not too concerned with his gate.

SILENT ACHIEVER has been ticking over nicely all prep and this is really the race they have targeted all along. She is the other main hope who draws perfectly. She got a long way back last start but will settle in first 6-7 here and get a lovely track into the race. She will look the winner at some point. Her record over 2400m is superb and the BMW run at WFA was excellent!

****By no means overly confident with on top selection. I feel the winner and probable trifecta is amongst them but luck is the biggest factor. Happy to think gate 16 (14 if emergencies come out) for HAWKSPUR is not the end of the world and with the light weight he can sprint better than them. DANDINO is the one who could blow them away, while the mares have drawn well and get every chance.

Didn’t want to tip the fav, but he is on top. I think the market has it right….

2013 CAULFIELD CUP selections: (top 6)

12 – HAWKSPUR

16 – ROYAL DESCENT

2- DANDINO

15 – SILENT ACHIEVER

8 – JET AWAY

7 – FAWKNER

 

**Stand by for other previews leading into the weekend**