CAULFIELD ‘The Punt’ section – Best Bets, Quad

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Let’s get stuck straight into the Melbourne card

TRACK – CAULFIELDblackbook

Rail +6m

 

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS

SATURDAY,   19 OCTOBER 2013
Paximadia – Caulfield R2   No.1 (1400m): Top 2 chance.
Fantome   Gris –   Caulfield R3 No.7 (2000m): Will love the 2000m
Sheer   Talent –   Caulfield R6 No.5 (1400m): Fitter for first up run, even race
Molto   Bene –   Caulfield R9 No.12 (1400m): Horror gate but very good mare.
Peron – Caulfield R9   No.14 (1400m): The one to beat.
Pickabee – Caulfield R9   No.18 (1400m):
Jet   Away –   Caulfield R10 No.8 (2400m): Live e/w chance
Hawkspur – Caulfield R10   No.12 (2400m): The one to beat.
Anna   Lizzie –   Doomben R6 No.6 (1600m): I have her winning.
Elmantosh – Doomben R7   No.10 (1600m): One of the best on Brisbane card.
Red   Magnet – Morphettville   R3 No.1 (1000m): Nice horse.
Source   Of Harmony –   Newcastle R6 No.6 (1400m):
She’s   Clean –   Randwick R8 No.3 (1200m):
SUNDAY,   20 OCTOBER 2013
Pickabee – Seymour R9   No.9 (1300m):

Tatts

 

**Prices are www.tatts.com at time of typing.

 

Race 1:

Not over these enough to be selecting.

 

 

Race 2:

A couple of very nice horses here.

I have always been a big fan of PAXIMADIA and he  was great 1st-up. Will improve off that and take a stack of beating.

The horse I think can beat him is HUCKLEBUCK. He was horribly unlucky last start and probably should have beaten Lion Of Belfort who has since won again. This bloke gets every chance and will rattle late.

CHAMPILLION the other horse with some hope.

On Top:  6- HUCKLEBUCK

Next best:  1- PAXIMADIA,  2- CHAMPILLION

 

pineapple

Race 3:

ARABIAN GOLD is the ‘class’ filly of the field and for that reason will come in for good support. She is a live chance but FANTOME GRIS will eat up the 2000m and looks the way to go for me, possibly e/w if odds allow. $5.50 and $2 at present.

Also repecting Moody’s AKAGERA at double figure odds.

*Not overly keen, but having an interest in Fantome Gris.

On Top:  7- FANTOME GRIS

 

 

 

Race 4:

Derby lead up and I like the race!

SAN DIEGO a live chance and I do respect him, however there are two at good odds I want to play here.

LASCAR $26 is a QLD horse with the very clever Meagher stable. Many down south have underestimated horses like Fire Up Fifi, the Boom’s etc and it may happen here. No flash breeding by any means but the last run was very good and he is looking for 2000m. The question is has it all come too soon on his first prep? Possibly, but I’m prepared to have something on at $26.

BRING SOMETHING comes out of the Stutt stakes which is lining up as a great form race with two placegetters in the Guineas. In that race he ran past SAN DIEGO the last 100m and went away from him.

*Good race and looking for value.

On Top: 11- BRING SOMETHING  $5.50

Value:  12 – LASCAR  $26

MaluaRacing...

 

Race 5:

Short and sweet here. Won’t really be playing and think it is extremely even. I will be having something small on MEMBERS JOY at $11. The first up run was spot on after severe interference.

Value:  5- MEMBERS JOY

 

 

 

Race 6:

Surprised $4+ is on offer BOBAN. Again not getting too involved here but happy to stand him out in a First 4. He comes of a super Group 1 win and is only 3.5kg over the minimum here. I will admit the pace in the race is some concern, but this bloke has gone to another level.

*Cheap first 4 —   $12 = 50%

FIRST FOUR:  1— 2,5,10,11

 

Matt Dunn Racing

 

Race 7:

First Leg of the Quaddie and it’s a beauty.

Really like SPIRIT OF BOOM e/w here again. He is so honest. Hall will sit him midfield and the 1100m should be the key as the tempo will suit and he shouldn’t have time to get pulling. If he relaxes he can run right over the top of them at around $7.

READY TO RIP would love rain (which won’t happen). He is a bomb fresh and goes into quaddie calculations.

EL MAGICO is the x-factor. Usually targets 1000m races and this is the hardest he has been in, however I’m not prepared to say he can’t.

CHIARAMONTE may get a nice run on pace and be hard to catch.

Above are my main chances, outside of them you have a multiple Group winning mare PLATLET and also PAGO ROCK with obvious claims.

On Top:  5- SPIRIT OF BOOM  e/w

 

 

 

Race 8:

SPURTONIC gets a nice lead here and I was taken with his Epsom run where he was extremely tough! Same goes for SCREAM MACHINE who caught the eye late in that race. That is good form for this.

GRIS CARO (SCRATCHED)was terrific in the JRA cup. Gets a lovely run and every chance again here with 55kg.

HONORIUS is simply an underrated horse! 2nd to Prince Cheri, and then backed it up by winning G3 beating Masked Marvel who is very good and a big ‘Cups’ horse.

HURDY GURDY MAN my ‘roghie’ if looking for something to fall into first 4’s. BASS STRAIT and GARUD obviously some hope.

*Can’t split HONORIUS and GRIS CARO (NOW SCRATCHED), but the Epsom form is not far behind!

On Top:  1- HONORIUS $7

Hardest To Beat- 5- SPURTONIC

 

 

Race 9:

I would have been in STEPS IN TIME’s corner but the wide gate at this starting point is far from ideal. She can be competitive but needs a bit of luck early.

Like the runs RED TRACER, BENNETTA and PERON get here. They are very classy mares and all get their chance. PERON should be the one to beat, but believe it or not gate 2 may be a concern. Cassidy will just need a pinch of luck on the corner. If he gets it she should probably win, If she gets held up RED TRACER and BENNETTA may be off and gone.

The horse I love and thought was the run of the carnival so far is MOLTO BENE. She gets gate 19 and will hope to be back 3 wide with cover at best. If the speed is frantic she will swoop hard!

If you are looking for a huge price to throw in tri’s maybe KOONOOMOO who drops in weight, small gear change and quick back-up. Many other chances including kiwi mare XANADU and QLD mares FIRE UP FIFI and PICKABEE.

On Top:  14 – PERON

Hardest To Beat:  1- RED TRACER,  6- BENNETTA, 2- XANADU

 

 

 

Race 10: (here’s the cup preview from other article)

At first glance there does not seem to be a great deal of pressure in the race but with the short run to the first turn there is nearly always genuine pressure early. There may be a chance for GLENCADAM GOLD, JULIENAS and MR OCEIRIN to slow them down mid-race but I would be surprised if that happened and this wasn’t run to give every horse a chance.

There are some decent winds predicted so cover is a must around here, and gates may have a big bearing.

What about the barrier draw?? Nearly all the fav’s have come up with horror gates. That makes for a very open race. As usual, luck will play a major part!

DANDINO is a very interesting horse. He has raced well all around the world and the most important thing is that all reports are he has travelled very well! He is suited to our racing as it looks as though he has some tactical speed but can race anywhere in the field which gives Williams plenty of options. He will be extremely strong late and just needs some luck from 19 to be in the finish. I’d assume Williams will get him to the outside.

The horse who is flying at present is HAWKSPUR. He come off a dominant winter in QLD and has carried that onto bigger races leading up to this. His first-up run and his Turnbull run the other day have just been phenomenal! He deserves to start favourite here and this could well be ‘Pumper’ Cassidy’s 100th Group 1 winner. The light weight of just 55kg is also another plus at the end of 2400m. He is another who has the bad gate- 16. Does Cassidy try to slot in midfield and risk being trapped out? Or does he go right back?

Forget ROYAL DESCENT went around in the Turnbull after a couple of severe checks and interference. I get the feeling she would like the ‘sting’ out of the track which she won’t get, but as I said that is just my feeling. She will sit in a nice spot without spending a penny from gate 3 and look for Nash producing her on straightening. A very good mare and a win would not surprise.

The real unknown is FAWKNER. Better at Flemington? Will he run 2400m? Both good questions but you would be game to say ‘no’. 3rd in the main lead up race is a great pointer and he may be ridden a little bit quieter here to allow him to see the trip out. I had a lazy little something on at $51 a couple of weeks ago so I am obviously a bit hopeful!

The other very good lead up run in my mind was JET AWAY- off a long break he went to 2000m fresh, was wide after getting interference and was still fighting the finish out. It was as good as any horse in that race and he should obviously take more benefit out of that run than his opposition here would have. He is a live chance and not too concerned with his gate.

SILENT ACHIEVER has been ticking over nicely all prep and this is really the race they have targeted all along. She is the other main hope who draws perfectly. She got a long way back last start but will settle in first 6-7 here and get a lovely track into the race. She will look the winner at some point. Her record over 2400m is superb and the BMW run at WFA was excellent!

****By no means overly confident with on top selection. I feel the winner and probable trifecta is amongst them but luck is the biggest factor. Happy to think gate 16 (14 if emergencies come out) for HAWKSPUR is not the end of the world and with the light weight he can sprint better than them. DANDINO is the one who could blow them away, while the mares have drawn well and get every chance.

Didn’t want to tip the fav, but he is on top. I think the market has it right….

2013 CAULFIELD CUP selections: (top 6)

12 – HAWKSPUR

16 – ROYAL DESCENT

2- DANDINO

15 – SILENT ACHIEVER

8 – JET AWAY

7 – FAWKNER

Horse shoe

 

 

 

 

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS: (All around Oz)

Melbourne Race 2 No.6 – HUCKLEBUCK

Melbourne Race 7 No.5 – SPIRIT OF BOOM e/w

Brisbane Race 4 No.2 – WHISKEY ALLROUND

Brisbane Race 6 No.6 – ANNA LIZZIE

Brisbane Race 7 No. 10- ELMANTOSH

 

 

This weeks ‘Longshot’ -  Melbourne Race 4 No. 12 LASCAR $26

 

MELBOURNE Quadrella:

4,5,10,11 —– 1,2,4,5,6 —– 1,2,3,6,12,14 —– 2,7,8,12,15,16

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

-
Sydney Race 6 No.7 - HIPPOPUS

Melbourne Race 5 No.6 – SHE CAN SKATE

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***This weeks TATTS Market Movers + JACKPOTS**

DOOMBEN

2/5 Trajet $4.5/$3.8

3/3 Signified $5.5/$4.8

5/2 Whisky Allround $4.5/$4.0

RANDWICK

3/2 Barbed $2.2/$1.75

4/7 Art Thou Ready $41/$29

 

CAULFIELD

1/4 Tango’s Daughter $5.0/$3.8

5/6 Can She Skate $5.5/$4.4

6/7 Conservatorium $12/$.75

10/7 Fawkner $13/$11

10/8 Jet Away $10/$9

To be added.

 

REMEMBER to check in Saturday morning after 8:30am QLD time after scratchings for all the final selections as things can change.