Cox Plate on ‘The Punt’

Print Friendly

 

 

 

The Punt section looks at Moonee Valley and its COX PLATE DAY!

It was a tough day early for ‘The Punt’ last week but hopefully some people may have followed the selections into the CC trifecta and Mrs Onassis in the last. But it’s all about going forward, so let’s move on..

 

 

**Now let’s focus on COX PLATE DAY. The prices given are TATTSBET prices at the time of typing**

 

Blackbookers:

October 27
  GREYTFILLY DOOMBEN R1 No.11 (1110m)
  JUGAHLATION DOOMBEN R2 No.2 (1110m)
  HOYLONNY ROSEHILL R3 No.1 (2000m)
  SOROS ROSEHILL R7 No.4 (1500m)

 

 

 

                                                                                                            Race 1:

PACE-  N/A

 

Not overly keen here, but will mention CRACK A ROADIE has a massive boom on him and Williams is on board. I’d be respecting him and will back him e/w if price allows on the day, but betting in these races will send you broke.

Obviously Gai’s well-bred horse that has drawn gate 1 must be respected. And I’m hearing Danny O’briens horse SHAMUS AWARD is a nice type, so maybe work around those.

 

ON TOP-   4-CRACK A ROADIE

 

 

 

Race 2:

PACE- As expected 1000m around the valley means they will go helter skelter here.

 

Another race that doesn’t grab my attention and I won’t be betting here. I am interested to see how I GET AROUND lines up. It is a speed machine and Williams takes the ride. I’d expect great improvement from last preparation, it’s just a short quote to be taking??

 

 

ON TOP-   9- I GET AROUND

 

 

 

Race 3:

PACE-Small field and little pace.

 

Not much to note here again. MIDNIGHT MARTINI is back in form and I expect her to run well and hold her form. Not sure what price she will jump at and I wouldn’t be taking a really short price, but she does look the winner.

EXTRA ZERO could be the quinella horse, and DESTINY’S KISS best of the rest.

 

 

ON TOP-   3-MIDNIGHT MARTINI

 

 

Race 4:

PACE-Hot little race with a heap of speed. 1,2,4,6,7 all push hard early. I’d look for a horse just off the leaders.

 

I think the horse that gets the right run is CAVALRY ROSE. She comes off a very good and she is always very honest

I have called SATURN ROCK a non-winner, but she will be suited by a really hot pace. I think this is extremely suitable and if she doesn’t stand up here I’m not sure I could fall into her again.

I will probably just back those two horses the win, or SATURN ROCK e/w. (ITS RUNNING FRIDAY NIGHT SO WILL BE SCRATCHED)

Rawiller sticks with HIDDEN WONDER, CHOSEN MOMENT goes well around the valley and ESSAY RAIDER looks promising (but will be up on a hot pace) so all worth thought in tri’s etc.

 

ON TOP-  7- CAVALRY ROSE

 

 

 

Race 5:

PACE- Looks an ugly race pace wise. Could be stop start, or could just be muddling.

 

Just sit back and watch this. I think IT’S A DUNDEEL is outstanding. We picked him out before his 1st Aussie start and he has not let us down. He is a freak and should win here but there is no value. I will watch on.

Hard to get a guide from the Adelaide race where it was a blanket finish so I’d be leaning towards SUPER COOL as the next best in the race.

 

 

ON TOP-     1- IT’S A DUNDEEL

NEXT BEST: 4-SUPER COOL

 

 

 

 

 

 

Race 6:

PACE- Not a lot to write home about. MIDAS TOUCH probably goes forward and gets another cheap lead.

 

What a horrible edition of the Moonee Valley Cup!! Fair dinkum this was once a decent guide to horses with a chance in a Melbourne Cup!!

Anyway, IRONSTEIN is by far the horse in the best form so I can’t find a way to tip against him. 3rd in the JRA cup and then 4th in the Herbert Power on level weights with Shawardi. Good e/w price and he will run well.

Although I don’t think his is as good as most the overseas horses IBENICIO could blow these away fresh. He gets a good run and if he gets around the valley then $5 may also be a good price.

RUEBEN PERCIVAL was very good in the Metrop (leaders race) and had excuses last start. He is very handy and has to be respected.

PRECEDENCE has won this race before, loves this track and I’m sure he will come in for support but he is simply not a horse I follow.

They are the main horses, but VATUVEI, SHENZOU STEEDS and MIDAS TOUCH are up to a race like this at their best, but where is their best?? Of them SHENZOU STEEDS may be the one who improves if he gets the ‘sting’ out of the ground. His record shows he is superior when that’s the case..

 

 

ON TOP-       4-IRONSTEIN

Hardest To Beat: 8-IBENICIO, 7-RUEBEN PERCIVAL, 5-SHENZOU STEEDS

 

 

 

 

Race 7:

PACE- Tricky race pace wise. I have AMBIDEXTER leading and SOLZHENITSYN grabbing his back. That will be their best chance of winning and does play into their hands a little.

 

The pace favours AMBIDEXTER and he will obviously be hard to beat of a great Epsom run.

I had a heap of trouble splitting AMBIDEXTER, RANGIRANGDOO and SILENT ACHIEVER. I have just leant to the true WFA horse in RANGIRANGDOO. Forget the Epsom where things didn’t pan out in an on-pace affair. He has won this race before and the fact they have changed it to WFA is up his alley.

SILENT ACHIEVER could blow them away if right. She has form around Ocean Park (who I don’t think there is much between at her top) and he may just win the Cox Plate.

SOLZHENITSYN is an obvious danger and I think his best chance is to try and lead. He jumps 7kg from his win in the Toorak but is hard to knock.

 

 

 

ON TOP-   1-RANGIRANGDOO, 7-SILENT ACHIEVER

 

 

 

Race 8:

PACE-  Very hard race to map, but I have PROISIR working over to lead with MORE JOYOUS on his outside. That would give PIERRO the fence 3rd and GREEN MOON 4th the outside. The most important spot is who gets the spot on GREEN MOONS back?? It should be ETHIOPIA or OCEAN PARK.

 

I will start with the 3 year olds. Any could win without surprising, but I personally like ALL TOO HARD and PROISIR more so than PIERRO. I can’t remember too many horses (mainly 3 yr olds) who have been run over late over 1600m and then come out and won a high pressure cox plate? I know it had a hard run, but a cox plate isn’t a picnic either.

ALL TOO HARD fits the bill and I’d be very keen except he has no tactical speed which leaves a question to where he gets in the run. With luck he can win.

PROISIR was very good behind a freak last start and ran the 2000m out well. The drop to 49.5kg means he can be hard to catch.

GREEN MOON is the tougher, older, in-form horse with the good gate. That’s a recipe for winning this race. His Turnball run was terrific and he is the horse they have to beat. I think he will start fav.

OCEAN PARK is the horse I have put on top and I simply think he will enjoy a hot tempo and he can sprint quicker than these late. I would love him to get on the back of GREEN MOON, if he can’t the task may be harder but he will give a great sight.

The best roughie, and one I will be backing is REKINDLED INTEREST. This race has a great record of the same horses popping up year in year out. (El Segundo, Fields Of Omagh, Northerly etc etc). He comes off a placing and great run last year. Respect at the big odds!

 

 

COX PLATE SELECTIONS  (I WILL BOX TRIFECTA THE FIVE- Cost $30 for a 50%of dividend)

9-OCEAN PARK

5-REKINDLED INTEREST

4-GREEN MOON

14-PROISIR

13-ALL TOO HARD

 

 

 

 

                                                                     RACE 9:

PACE: I am very worried that by this time of the day the track may have dried right out and with the rail +3 there is a chance it has become ‘leaderish’. Also doesn’t seem a lot of pace so STAR OF GISELLE and SPIRIT SONG will get a few favours up on pace.

 

My initial thought was that PRETTY PINS would be the way to go at value at around $10, but I have to admit I’d like to know if you are able to swoop and win which would be her go. She has 54kg and her last run was full of merit running through the line. I think she should go in Quad’s and I’ll still have something small on her if conditions suit.

SPIRIT SONG can camp 3rd the fence and comes off a Group 1 second to Solzhenitsyn in the Toorak. The only question is the fact she jumps 7kg to 59kg, but she does also drop back to mares grade which helps.

I thought SKYERUSH was only OK last start and wouldn’t win this with a repeat performance, however she usually takes a few to come to hand and I expect sharp improvement here. Last prep she won the G2 Emancipation (1600m) and ran 2nd in the G1 Tatts Tiara, so more than up to this G3.

ZURELLA drops back sharply in grade after taking on the Naturalism and the Turnball in her last couple. She was well beaten there, but this is far more suitable.

Didn’t think STAR OF GISELLE would be up to these, but if the track is playing to leaders then she is a must for quad’s etc. Not sure the story why C.Williams is on HI BELLE instead of this mare after he won on her last start but she is the one they have to run down.

 

ON TOP:    (value)- 6- PRETTY PINS

Hardest To Beat:1- SPIRIT SONG, 2-SKYERUSH, 5-STAR OF GISELLE, 3-ZURELLA

 

 

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Melbourne Race 3 No.3 MIDNIGHT MARTINI

 

Melbourne  Quadrella numbers:

4,5,6,7,8,9 —– 1,6,7 —– 4,5,9,13,14 —– 1,2,3,5,6

**Obviously things can change with scratchings, so check back in after 9am Saturday for the final numbers.

 

 

‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:

Sydney Race 6 No.13 AERONAUTICAL

Brisbane Race 6 No.7 PREACHER BOY

**For those interested he likes GREEN MOON + OCEAN PARK in the COX PLATE.

 

 

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

 

 

for

Saturday, 27 October 2012

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

MOONEE VALLEY (MR)

8

$100,000

W.S. COX PLATE

QD

MOONEE VALLEY (MR)

-

$81,209

RACES 6, 7, 8 & 9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$38,621

RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

TT

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

-

$7,041

RACES 4, 5 & 6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

THE MEADOWS (MG)

8

$1,000

TOPGUN

F4

CANNINGTON (PG)

5

$1,000

ALL STARS SPRINT FINAL

 

 

 

**Thanks for checking in. Feel free to print ‘The Punt’ off if you are heading to the track/pub etc, or send a link to a friend. The more people in our brissyraces team the better!

 

Have a cracking weekend, and GOOD LUCK!