Derby Day on ‘The Punt’

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Let’s get stuck into what looks a cracking day on the best track in Australia!

TATTS JACKPOTS!!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 2 November 2013

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

FLEMINGTON (MR)

6

$100,000

VICTORIA DERBY

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$14,420

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$5,000

RISING STARS C’SHIP FINAL (C0 ONLY)

 

 

 

 

 

 blackbook

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

**This week we have a lot of BLACKBOOK runners:

SATURDAY, 2 NOVEMBER 2013

Rare Ruby – Eagle Farm R4 No.10 (1200m): Good chance in even race.

Hucklebuck – Flemington R1 No.2 (1600m): Will be fav and hard to beat.

Melaleuca – Flemington R2 No.10 (2000m): Nice option in wide tri’s.

Pakal – Flemington R5 No.7 (2000m): Legitimate chance.

San Diego – Flemington R6 No.6 (2500m): Draws nice and must be considered.

Red Tracer – Flemington R7 No.1 (1600m): Looks well placed.

Bonaria – Flemington R7 No.6 (1600m):

Source Of Harmony – Newcastle R6 No.9 (1400m):

Bernitchy – Sunshine Coast R7 No.1 (1300m):

 Matt Dunn Racing

Race 1:

HUCKLEBUCK the obvious here coming off a dominant 2L win in the Listed 1400m race a fortnight ago. Again draws well and is the one to beat. He should win but stopping short of making him a good thing.

EQUATOR back from 2000m is rock hard fit and he will push forward and give a kick for sure!

SIR ANDREW from NZ looks handy and the two Darley runners – PAXIMADIA and CHAMPILLION would have been set for this a while back.

On Top: 2- HUCKLEBUCK

Hardest To Beat: 4 – EQUATOR

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Race 2:

Again MAYS DREAM is the obvious one and should win. However I don’t think she is as dominant as some fillies we have seen in the past. I can’t back her straight out at $2.20 but happy to rover her in tri’s, first 4’s. She could blow them away without surprising but there are some nice longshots who can fall into places.

MELALUCA $17 and TEAR GAS $19 both look very nice staying fillies and will love the 2000m around Flemington.

GYPSY DIAMOND (not in well at weights) ARABIAN GOLD and KIRRAMOSA the best of the rest in my eyes.

*Happy to play first 4’s.

On Top:  3- MAYS DREAM

Value for tri’s = 10- MELALUCA  +  11- TEAR GAS

*MaluaRacing...

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Race 3:

Convinced this is not the Cup lead-up it has been for a few years now. The cup winner isn’t here and this looks very open.

KELINNI is the class horse, he also has gate 3 and looks well in with 57kg. He won this race last yr and was then 4th in the cup. He is not going as well but I have a feeling Waller is catching up to where he wants to be. Don’t sell him short at $9 – $3

John O’Shea is very upbeat about KINGDOMS. He feels the horse is a lot better Melb way, so watch out. Problem may be he meets IRONSTEIN 5kg worse off here so that horse has to be respected too.

Mares LETS MAKE ADEAL and VANQUERA have strong formlines and ARALDO beat Sea Moon last start who is high up in Cup betting.

ARALDO beat Sea Moon which speaks for itself at this level.

RUSCELLO ran well in an easier race while JULIENAS was flying before Caulfield ‘flop’.

Value: 2- KELLINI

Next Best: 10 – KINGDOMS, 

Others:  8- IRONSTEIN, 11- LET’S MAKE ADEAL, 6- ARALDO

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Race 4:

Well yet another race with a short priced fav, this time odds on!

ZOUSTAR comes off a Group 1 Golden Rose win and a 4L Group 2 win. He is the dominant 3 yr old and deserves to be the fav here. He had an ordinary jump out here but bounced back with great work a couple of days later.

I think SIDESTEP is the next best. Snowden is in great form and this has had a freshen up since the Golden Rose and ready to explode here. Clear 2nd best for me. Gate 1 some query?

NOT LISTENIN’TOME could be very good. Happy to think he lines up well here on the back up.

At big odds FAST’N’ROCKING may improve sharply dropping back to 1200m (similar to stablemate Pago Rock lately)

On Top:  1- ZOUSTAR

Next Best:  2- SIDESTEP

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Race 5:

At first look this may appear an ordinary million dollar race, but it looks quite interesting.

This sets up well for JET AWAY who has to win to guarantee a cup start. He can get the gun run behind the speed here, with luck Boss peels out and wins. That would take the edge off him as he can over-race and that would have him cherry ripe for Tuesday! Does that sound all too rosy for those who have backed him in the cup??

I thought SIDE GLANCE was also good in the Cox plate after over-racing and is better placed here.

PAKAL was great in the Cranbourne Cup and fair to say that form was franked with Sertorious winning Bendigo Cup. (even though neither were ‘great’ races)

Forgotten horse is definitely DEAR DEMI, she is going as well as ever and I actually feel she could be the knockout here. She was excellent in the Caulfield Cup. MR MOET more than a pass mark in the same race.

QLD will cheer for SOLZHENITSYN who can run well.

On Top: 6 – JET AWAY

Value:  9- DEAR DEMI

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*Piney Melb Cup

Race 6:

Barrier draw threw a spanner in the works here!

Still happy to back SAVVY NATURE now he is getting out to e/w quote and $5 may be available on the day. From all reports I have had this horse thrives on racing and the quick back-up from the dominant Vase win last week is perfect! Will need a tough of luck or a good ride form the gate, but I am on..

COMPLACENT has been terrific and no knock on him. I have not been on his last couple, so not on now. Goes in all quad’s etc though.

Very little between POLANSKI  and SAN DIEGO last start and probably again here.

CRITERION well underrated and will relish the 2500m.

Best roughies for First 4’s are BRING SOMETHING $19 and PINSTRIPE LANE $19

*not much between Savvy Nature and San Diego*

On Top:  3- SAVVY NATURE

Next Best:   6- SAN DIEGO,  1- CRITERION

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Race 7:

Weights and measure say nothing from the Tristarc can beat RED TRACER as she meets them all better at the weights. However she has one place from 4 starts at the 1600m… She has run well at 1500m where she has beaten Stream, Secret Admirer etc but it is a tiny little question here.

The two that should be the strongest at the end are FIRE UP FIFI who ii feel excels at 1600-1800m and MOLTO BENE who I am forgetting went around at Caulfield, her win before that was one of the best I have seen in a long time.

SHARNEE ROSE went past Queenstown who then come out and won a nice race at the Valley. Has to be a chance of making it a hat-trick.

FLORIA can sit in the first few pairs here, will just keep coming and will run through the line.

On Top:  12- MOLTO BENE  $17

Hardest To Beat:  1- RED TRACER,  2- FIRE UP FIFI

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Race 8:

Good luck! I can’t name them all here so don’t worry if yours doesn’t get a write up.

These races are right up FONTELINA’s alley. He will stride along up on pace and fight like a dog!

STEPS IN TIME apparently worked super in blinkers. She will wear them 1st time race day along with BENETTA who could improve sharply.

Two South Aussie’s ESSAY RAIDER and particularly KARACATIS can run very well. KARACATIS will swoop late and forget the last start when let’s just say the ride was not ideal.

SHAMAL WIND and CHIARAMONTE were both unlucky behind SPIRIT OF BOOM and all 3 are chances here.

ALBRECHT will get back and enjoy the tempo up front.

*Very very tough. Looking for value.

On Top:  4- FONTELINA  $11

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Race 9:

Like most punters at first glance you can really look at some of the leading chances who are all swoopers here. How is the track playing now???

If leaders can win BRITISH GENERAL is one of the toughest horses getting around and I have him getting a cheap lead here. If that’s the case he will kick hard.

Also expect them to try and use gate 3 for EXIMIUS. He was great in Brisbane over the winter and won 2nd up last prep. He has the speed to sit firs 4-5 here.

OUT OF COOBER and MISTER MILTON both excellent last run and will win again soon. However MISTER MILTON will have to give away a big start from the gate.

RIVA DE LAGO and GALAH will probably jump the two favs and be the one’s hitting the line the strongest. Again, see how the track is playing, swoopers track and they are the two at the top.

On Top:  13- EXIMIUS

Hardest To Beat:  3- GALAH, 8- BRITISH GENERAL,  11- OUT OF COOBER,  1- RIVA DE LAGO

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GIBBO’s BEST BETS:

Melbourne Race 5 No.6 – JET AWAY

This weeks ‘Longshot’ – Melbourne Race 7 No.12 – MOLTO BENE

MELBOURNE Qaudrella:

1,3,4,6 —– 1,2,11,12 —– 1,4,8,11,13,15 —– 1,3,8,11,13

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‘THE PROPHETs’ BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 3 No.4 – ELMANTOSH

Melbourne Race 3 No.11 – LETS MAKE ADEAL

Melbourne Race 8 No.11 – SHAMAL WIND

 

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WWW.TATTS.COM – MARKET MOVERS!TattsBet

EAGLE FARM

8/16 Surface Tension $31/$21

 

ROSEHILL

3/7 Polarmore $3.9/$3.1

4/1 Pamplelonne $4.4/$3.6

8/11 Magna Amica $5.25/$5.0

 

FLEMINGTON  

3/6 Araldo $4.8/$4.2

5/6 Jet Away $3.1/$2.9

6/4 Polanski $7.5/$6.0

9/12 Mister Milton $19/$16

*****As usual check back in Saturday morning as some changes may pop up due to scratchings etc****