Doncaster Preview 2013

Print Friendly

The DONCASTER HANDICAP preview:

It is nearly the highlight of the Sydney carnival and promises to be another cracking event. Here is how I see it being run and won. (I have done this on a dead rating)

 

Shoot out

A really hard race to work out. On paper there is a real lack of speed which may be a big issue. GLASS HARMONIUM is the only true leader in the race and he either jumps and goes very fast, or he misses the start and has no chance. If he missed the start it is a lottery which horses would take up the running. For these reasons I would be looking for a horse that will settle in the first half of the field and who should get a bit of cover.

I was initially very keen on NORZITA. She is relatively untapped and I don’t believe we have seen the best of her yet. She will handle all conditions and is capable of going forward but is that what they will do from gate 17? The barrier is an issue but she is the horse on the way up and that is thetype you want in a race like this.

On the other hand I have been looking to knock PIERRO early in the week with such a big weight, but after drawing gate 4 he is the horse to beat. He has proved himself on all surfaces so that’s not an issue. He will love a hard 1600m and he is simply ‘a winner’.

SHOOT OUT has a task with 58kg but he is an outstanding horse who is racing really well again. His 2 runs this campaign have been terrific and at double figure odds he has to be some value. He has raced at this level his entire career and he is up to this. Gate 10 suits and he can sit just in front of midfield.

The other mares STREAMA, APPEARANCE and RED TRACER are all capable but again they will need a lot of luck from their gates and where they get to is the question.

Some of the horses down the bottom are worth thought and I do feel SACRED FALLS may be a bit underrated and this could well be the race that suits him.

*In summing up it is another great Doncaster as we would expect. Everyone has different betting strategies, personally I’d be inclined to have something on SHOOT OUT the win, and a small win bet GLASS HARMONIUM as they have good claims the way the race will be run and are nice odds. The fav is obviously the one to beat and is a superstar so he would be worth a stand out trifecta..

Here is what I’d consider:

1 – SHOOT OUT  …win bet  @ $12

3- GLASS HARMONIUM  …small win bet @ $41

Trifecta:   2 —  1,3,6,8,11,14,18 — 1,3,6,8,11,14,18                        $42   =  100%  or   $24 =  50%

 

**For those who have been to work and missed the news, BLACK CAVIAR has been retired after her 25th straight win on Saturday. As much as I would have loved to see her up here again or go back and smack them in England, I think the right decision has been made and we have just been blessed with the best horse we will ever see!