Doomben 10,000 on ‘The Punt’

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Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’. DOOMBEN 10,000 DAY.

You can hear a chat I had with AJ on www.helter-skelter.com.au

*This will be updated around 9AM Saturday for final selections.

**Track played very ordinary last week with a huge bias. Gotta feel for the curator and team who do a great job, just one of those things. What do we expect this week?? Not sure, I was certain it would  play like that last week and I’d expect similar but hopefully not as bad. Rail has been pushed out 2M more to the 4M mark.

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!

The bias track will be playing on punters minds but will it play on trainers and connections minds too? Will they ride horses upside down to be a chance? If so you only need one or two in every race to make every speed map confetti…. It is an issue! Showers are predicted Friday, could that help?

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*

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BLACKBOOK Runners:

SATURDAY, 24 MAY 2014

Arki – Doomben R7 No.11 (2200m): Kept him in the book because of no luck.

La Amistad – Randwick R6 No.13 (2400m): Very nice horse!

 pineapple

Race 1:

Gee this looks ugly. I have no clear selection. The horse I am keen on would be BAUKAW and MONBAZILLAC, however they have horror gates and only option would be to get out of their ground and this being the first race we have no idea if you can make up ground?

PLAYITSTRAIGHT may start over the odds but as I said I can’t steer people in one direction when I don’t want to be getting involved myself. Even EMERALD DUKE improved last start and more improvement would see him competitive.

Good Luck, but leave me out.

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Race 2:

If this track is playing to the front again how do they beat AGITATE at level weights? Havana who he smashed last start won a feature last week and he will ping 2L in front here on a potentially front runners dream track? The only reason he isn’t a special is the 1200m sees him right out. Win, lose or draw you are going to be in front and holding your breathe at the 50m mark!!

Outside of him LE VAL and ROUGH COPY were outstanding in the Mick Dittman also. LE VAL was coming off a long layoff with injury and the step to 1200m will only suit. On the other hand I feel ROUGH COPY may want even further now? Will hit the line hard.

Matt Dunn drew gate 17 race 1 and got gate 15 here with FIFTH CHANCE. May roll forward and can finish top 4 with luck.

SCHILLACKING best of the rest and gets a nice run from the gate. WHISKEY ALLROUND is a good horse that Tony has a nice opinion of, feels there were excuses but the sticky gate doesn’t help!

ARCHITECT was enormous last start and will have a heap of support but he is just not one of mine, have no idea about him.

On Top:  1- AGITATEMatt Dunn Racing

Others:  5- LE VAL,   12- SCHILLACKING

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Race 3:

Speed on speed here! ADEBISI from gate 11, SHE CAN SKATE from 5, IONA FAST ONE from 3 all go hard and will want to lead while BIG BONANZA may be quicker than them all from gate 1 but he may have to settle for 3rd the fence with a couple of these if they jump. They are your first 4 settling anyway. CAPE KIDNAPPERS right up there also and MR FAVULOUS won’t blink from gate 2 either!!

Well if there is anyway this track is going to play fair it has to be shown here. The tricky starting point just means they will go even harder trying to cross…

Browne gets back on CAPE KIDNAPPERS, I simply think you have to be forgiving for one flat run that wasn’t horrible and with his record he deserves another go. I don’t think he is a ‘good thing’ but his best form wins this.

If you can make ground BYMONASHEE may well be the value and is a very underrated galloper (4 starts this track/trip and hasn’t finished worse than 2nd), and AVALADYLUCK will get back but if that’s not a disadvantage she is better than a $13 pop.

*Sticking with CAPE KIDNAPPERS around the $3.60 but worth seeing if he is supported early.

On Top:  4- CAPE KIDNAPPERS

Next Best:  10- BYMONASHEE (scratched)

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Race 4:

Bit of a hard race to line up with different formlines and Kiwi visitors. Could be a bit of a trick race but don’t mind a couple of the mares.

Was really keen on LOADED at nomination time but he will have to go back from the gate and obviously not in well at the weights here. In saying that he is a good horse and will be very strong late, won 3rd up by 3L last prep up here.

Feel WISTFUL has the timing about her, O’Shea has thrown the blinkers back on and from gate four she can get a gun run behind the speed to strike on the corner. She has the Leebaz form and that’s as strong as it gets here. $4.50 looks a fair price.

Think the smoky is ROLLOUT THE CARPET $12. A Group 1 winner who is in well at this weight scale. She races on pace and usually keeps finding. Forgive the GC run, far superior on a drier track and 2nd run back from the let up, should be a real improver.

ANGEL OF MERCY has had a mixed prep but has obvious class and HISTORIAN is a good NZer who got close to Silent Achiever a couple ago and terrific form earlier in career. GREY ASSIGNMENT $21 more suited than last start and I’d be surprised if they weren’t positive from the gate.

On Top:  13- WISTFUL 

Value:   5- LOADED,   12- ROLLOUT THE CARPET  $12,   2- GREY ASSIGNMENT $21,  

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 MaluaRacing...

Race 5:

Far from confident here.

I have been amazed with SRIKANDI, she has been outstanding up here and she was running away from them under a hold last week. She is a young filly on the way up, the gate is not the end of the world from this starting point, but on the back-up and up to 57kg is a slight query.

Don’t like the fact PLATINUM ROCKER is spotting plenty of weight to some good fillies and mares but she is a class act. She was well beaten by SRIKANDI when they last met, however PLATINUM ROCKER is drawn to get a far better run and a 3.5kg turn around in her favour! Will it be enough? I thinking she looks a fair e/w punt.

Have a lot of time for CHINTZ, probably has to settle midfield from the gate.

LA PIETA (scratched), JAZZ SONG and PLUCKY BELLE all have obvious chances and can win with the right luck in running.

Value:   1- PLATINUM ROCKER

Hardest To Beat:  3- SRIKANDI, 

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Race 6:

Barriers have thrown this wide open! I couldn’t have BRAZEN BEAU beating LOOKS LIKE THE CAT this time out if all was fair and square but the gates mean Gollans horse will now be spotting the fav a lot of ground in the run (unless tactics change). LOOKS LIKE THE CAT has a heap of improvement from the first run and Tony has had these nest couple in mind for a long time. He may be a star.

The other horse who may just be one right out of the box is PRESSING and the step to 1350m is ideal. His first two starts/wins have been amazing. The question with him seems to be that he is still a bit ‘green’ and learning, he has been slow out and settled back (may not be good here?) I am sure that with even luck can defy and bias and be competitive anyway, he is that good.

Don’t like saying the market is spot on but they look the clear 3.

*If you can make ground I would be prepared to work around the fav, but if a leader bias he is again the horse to beat.

Depending on Track:  2,3,5

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Race 7:

Really good betting race and Im pretty confident they will run along and make it a true staying test.

Thought TELEPATHIC could really trouble AMEXED but again AMEXED looks to get a better run for the majority of this race. He may need a bit of luck on the corner, but with luck he has to be the horse to beat and $4 probably fair. TELEPATHIC is an exceptional little filly who will improve off the run at 2000m.

I do feel they are the main two chances and probably only about three-four others I can see running really well.

VILANOVA was more than a pass mark and finished close to the two mentioned above, he is better ridden colder and surely that’s what they do her. AUBERGE for the Darley team looks full of potential and although the last start win was against inferior opposition, it was dominant and the horse keeps improving. Better over the road at EF but don’t sell short. Same goes for PINSTRIPE LANE for Malua, he will rather EF but has always shown ability and the win in Sydney was terrific, the trip away may be the making of him.

The roughie I am prepared to give another chance is ARKI, he is a big striding horse who needs to be out and rolling but he was held up and losing ground when checking on the corner last start. Forget that and he will run far better here in my opinion.

On Top:  4- AMEXED

Hardest To Beat:  14- TELEPATHIC,  11- ARKI

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Race 8:

The feature, Doomben 10,000.

Speed looks to be even. DRIEFONTEIN should be the leader, BUFFERING should roll across outside her. The big question is CONSERVATORIUM? I have no doubt his best form is leading or outside the lead, and I have no doubt his best chance here is to push forward and stay in front as long as possible, but do they roll the dice? Where does he land otherwise?

I’m sure the speed will be fair. If the real BUFFERING shows up he is more than capable of winning this. He has not been at his best this prep but I am sure Rob will have him 100% here. As ‘flat‘ as he was he was still only a length from the winners.

SPIRIT OF BOOM (drier the better) has never gone better. Interesting to see Gollan has said they will ride him a lot closer, possibly midfield if the track is playing that way again. From the good gate that is perfect and as long as they don’t overdo it there is not a doubt he should be favourite in my mind. He spotted them a ridiculous (unwinnable) start last time out and still nearly got the job done. FAMOUS SEAMUS obviously won that race and has to be respected.

REBEL DANE will go back and that is my main concern? How’s the track? Can you win from there?

You can make cases for every horse but I feel they are the main players on a fair track.

On Top:   2- SPIRIT OF BOOM   (dead or better)

Hardest To Beat:  1- BUFFERING

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Race 9:

Let me start by saying I am not tipping PRECEDENCE which means he is probably a moral! He has cost me every time I have backed him, and he win when I’m on something else! He does have a class edge here and just needs a bit of luck in running to figure somewhere.

I think a decent gate and a weight turn around for DANCHAI can see him get home. Last start it took a gem by Wiggins on PRETTY PINS to beat him and there is a 2.5kg turnaround in DANCHAI’s favour. He looks the winner and I feel the $5 is more than fair price for the Waller trained galloper.

Plenty of kiwi’s that always need to be respected, most of which have all been give the ‘visitors draw’ except for ZENNISTA.

Two more for consideration are ZEPHYRON from the all-conquering Hawkes team! A quality Zabeel gelding who has been placed perfectly like all their horses.

FREEZY is an interesting runner and she will be in my exotics at big odds. Nice win two starts back and didn’t mind the effort at all over 2000m in Adelaide when beaten 3L in a Listed race. Far from the worst.

On Top:  8- DANCHAI

Next Best:   1- PRECEDENCE,  7- ZEPHYRON

 TattsBet

GIBBO BEST BETS:

*Brisbane Race 4 No.13- WISTFUL    $4.50

*Brisbane Race 9 No.8-  DANCHAI     $5

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BRISBANE Quadrella: 
Short but sweet this week.  $18  =  100%

2,3,5 —— 4,11,14 —— 1,2 —— 8

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This weeks ‘Longshot’- Think ARKI and GREY ASSIGNMENT can run well in tough races. Probably more so for exotic bets (tri’s etc)

‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

-Brisbane Race 5 No.1- PLATINUM ROCKER

-Brisbane Race 6 No.5- LOOKS LIKE THE CAT

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STEVE HEWLETTS Best:

*Brisbane Race 2 No.1- AGITATE

*Brisbane Race 6 No.2- BRAZEN BEAU

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***TATTS MARKET MOVERS + JACKPOTS***

$200,000 first 4 JACKPOT RACE 8

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Gibbo’s DOUBLE TRIO numbers: (race 8+9)

DT891,2,3,4,7,11

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1,5,6,7,8,14