Doomben 10,000

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Trying to give punters an early look but it’s a little difficult with 15-30ml predicted Wednesday.

I’ve done this on a SOFT 6-7 track so take that into account:

 

1-TREKKING- He’s a genuine G1 horse and there aren’t many in the race. I was really disappointed with 1st up run where he loomed to win and then was plain late in an easier race than this. He ran the 3rd best split from 600-400m and the best split from the 400-200m before only the 8th best last L200m. That says condition gave way and he has a decent 2nd up record (8:3:2:0). Expecting improvement here.

2- EDUARDO– He’s a freak. Has a high cruising speed and can really find when he gets a tempo that suits. If it was 1100m he’d be a moral but I’m confident he can roll them at the 1200m here. It’s an easier task that the 1200m at Randwick and he gets the edge out of the track he loves. Early price of $2.30 looks about right.

3-KING WILL DREAM– Very good on his day but over further than this. Hard to write off a genuine G1 horse but hard to see him having the speed to beat these (IMO)

4- WILD PLANET- Should be around the money. No luck fresh last prep and then beat Funstar after that. Recent trials have been good and he handles all conditions. Should get a sweet run in transit and be strong through the line. Bit surprised he’s $16.

5-SPLINTEX– Won 6 of 16 and in a very astute stable. For those reasons I’m showing some respect. Eduardo belted him a couple of times in G1 and G2 races before he then won a G3. Can mix form and be hard to catch, watch the market.

6-VEGA ONE– Really good his last couple of preps before almost a year off. Only beaten 0.6L in last years Stradbroke. Fresh run was a pass mark and he took another step forward 2nd up. I’d expect him to improve sharply again here and he goes in my numbers for exotics.

7-THE HARROVIAN– Everything says he will need the run and be a lot better at 1400m+ but he is just a winner and always races well. 

8- GRAFF– Recent trial was good but he’s just too hard for me to catch. If he wins I lose.

9-WILD RULER– A talented 3yr old in one of Australia’s best stables so he’s easy to like. He has tactical speed and he lands in the first three settling. Had form around Rothfire last time he was in Qld and did win the G2 Arrowfield last start beating Isotope. Can land in the exotics.

10-PENNINO– She has let me down in far easier races than this and looks outclassed.

11-EMBRACE ME– Beaten in a benchmark 90 last start. Nope.

 

*Feel that EDUARDO just gets a race set up perfectly for him. Nash can lead at whatever tempo he likes and he can shoot for home on the corner. As long as the track is playing fair he looks extremely hard to run down. Even if the fence isn’t the best spot he can steer to the best spot as he will get there first. Away from him it’s a pretty even sort of race and not much would surprise. 

 

If I had to play an exotic it would be a trifecta:

2  // 1,4,6,9 // 1,4,6,9