Doomben 16th Feb ‘The Punt’

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‘The Punt’ heads to DOOMBEN. Looks a good type of day but does not look as much value as we may have found last week.

RAIL— +2M

Rating- DEAD 4 (friday arvo)

 

BLACKBOOKERS:blackbook

February 16
LENNIE’S CHOICE DOOMBEN R3 No.17 (1010m) :  On Top if gains a run

SISTER EMMA DOOMBEN R5 No.14 (1600m) : Same as above comment
PERON DOOMBEN R5 No.5 (1600m) : On Top in same race as Congo + Sister Emma
KILWINNING OPTION DOOMBEN R7 No.1 (1350m) :Will be on pace and hard to catch.

 

*All prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing

**You can also hear an interview and comments on a few races at www.helter-skelter.com.au

 

 

Race 1:

As usual I don’t want to get too deep here.

I’d be surprised if quinella didn’t come from  1,2,4:

On Top: 2-TERANADO, 4- AQUATOR, 1-FLAMBOYER

 

 

Race 2:

Rob Heathcote has found another good race for GUNDY SON and he can make it 2 on the trot.. Do you want to take the $2.40 ? I will leave that up to you as these small fields can be tricky run races.

PROST is the next best horse but will also get back.

Best of the on pacers may be SPOT ON TARGET but he will have to be at his best to beat GUNDY SON etc.

*Class should carry GUNDY to victory but will admit pace may be the query.

On Top: 1- GUNDY SON

 

 

Race 3:

Here is my ‘early mail’ comment for LENNIE’S CHOICE

Race 3 No.17 LENNIE’S CHOICE

*I think he may be a good horse in the making. He ran quicker time than the class 3 on the same day when breaking his maiden.

*It is always hard to jump to a race like this of a Saturday after an easy midweek maiden but Schweida  must have a good opinion of him as well and I do think we will see the money come for him..

*TRAGEDY in the same race may well come up big odds and may be worth a little saver.

You can make cases for others in the race like POWER OF ED from the good gate but I will be backing LENNIE’S CHOICE if he runs and will have a smaller bet on TRAGEDY.

 

On Top: 17- LENNIE’S CHOICE

Roughie: 12- TRAGEDY

 

 

Race 4:

BOYS ON TOUR was outstanding last start but $1.45 ??? CMON.. He may well win but this horse can have a habit of missing the start or getting too far back. Sure Cahill has gate 1, he may jump and sit 3rd the fence and simply win but I will not be taking $1.45 to say he will!

Believe it or not he actually meets LUCKY LUNA 0.5kg better off for beating him by 6L…. LUCKY LUNA has had 9 starts this track/trip and never been out of the money. That’s an incredible record and he will again run well.

WHAT HAPPENEDHENRY probably deserves another chance after a tough run last start and CASH’N’STYLE is fitter for a few races back and is nearing a win.

**Work around 1,2,6,7 but I’m not prepared to put BOYS ON TOUR on top at $1.45.

 

 

Race 5:

First leg of the quad and as usual it looks a good 3yr old race to kick off.

There is a $131,000 JACKPOT kickoff to the quaddie on www.tatts.com as well!!

Here is the ‘early mail’ comment

Race 5 No.5 PERON

*Toughest race of the day but this filly looks very good.

*Dominant late in the midweek’s last start.

*Step to 1600m from the good gate and with the town’s best jockey on looks tailor made.

*She has taken a step every start and I think she can take another Saturday.

 

If you are looking to go outside her there are many options. FANTISHA was enormous last start. She was wide and took off early to only get beaten on the line. If she reproduces that she will nearly win. My only concern with her is the fact she can put in an avg run when you least expect it.

CONGO is also a major player. Got stopped in his tracks last start and the Colless/Dunn factor comes into play for sure!

SISTER EMMA will be far better off for the run a fortnight ago and with blinkers 1st time we may see a new horse.

WRITE CHEEK, PLUMAGE (coming of good win) and CARMORA are the best of the rest and will be around the money.

*Great race but think PERON looks classy.

On Top: 5- PERON

 

 

 

Race 6:

A very open 2000m race so looking for some value.

‘Early mail’ was:

SHEZAHOTSHOT

*Probably the roughest of the three but she is super consistent and you have to forgive her the last start failure when lame after the race. Her form before that was super.

*Likes the track and handles any track. Has a new apprentice on which may be the only question as she doesn’t look the easiest horse to ride.

*I’d be happy if we could get around the $8 mark and back her e/w. (She has opened $7 on www.tatts.com and that seems fair)

DOLLY DOLLY has been racing very well in similar (or harder) races. If she gets across from the gate she will be hard to beat.

I am a SECRET GARDEN fan but the jury has to be out this time in work. A win would never surprise me and Cahill may get her home..

VOLKHERE goes to takes a big jump to 2000m but has a feather weight and Heathcote training!

DAZZLE US has always had a spruik but rarely delivered. I’m starting to think he may simply be an out and out stayer and if that’s the case we should see a career peak in this.

EPIC DRAGON, CASTLE EXPRESS and SWEET AND VICIOUS can have cases made but probably leaning elsewhere on this occasion.

 

On Top: 6- SHEZAHOTSHOT e/w

Next Best: 12- DAZZLE US, 5- NOISY OCEAN,  11-DOLLY DOLLY

 

 

Race 7:

A decent race but 4-5 clear chances in my mind.

KILWINNING OPTION has been well backed early and is just so consistent you know he will be around the mark.

If VIKING HEART backs up he is a big player. Not a horse I’m sure the back-up would suit but he is going very well and this looks easier than that assignment.

Can’t believe ALDINI is $8 ? I know gate 16 is a bad draw but this start is a bit forgiving on gates and that seems a generous price in a race like this.

SHOW AFFECTION gets in well at the weights and although she had a flat spot last start I liked her last 50-100m. Should be able to sit midfield and unleash late.

BLACK MAGIC and ALTAI WARRIOR are both capable in a race like this however just leaning to the others here.

*Very little between a few horses!

 

On Top: 8- VIKING HEART

Next Best: 1- KILWINNING OPTION, 10- ALDINI, 13- SHOW AFFECTION

 

 

 

Race 8:

Although LUCKY SOUND was simply going through the grades last prep I really like the way he went about it. 1200m around Doomben from a nice gate is the perfect scenario for him 1st up. I would wait till late to see what the money does but if it comes you can be very confident he will run well.

BRIBIE gets his fav track/trip and has looked a better horse this prep.

COMMANDARE hasn’t missed a place this prep and gets a great trip in transit for Stewart.

ARADO will flash late again and if pace is on as expected he is more than capable of running over them.

EPIC is screaming for 1200m now and I think he is a very nice horses. Cahill is on and with some luck in running I think he is probably the hardest to beat.

 

On Top: 6- LUCKY SOUND

Hardest To Beat: 13- EPIC, 9- ARADO, 8- COMMANDARE, 4- BRIBIE

 

 

GIBBO’S BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 5 No.5 PERON

Best Interstate- Melbourne Race 8 No.9 DE CIRCLES

 

 

BRISBANE QUADRELLA numbers:

(Happy to go short 1st leg to keep cost down. If looking to go wider in 1st leg 1,8 would be my others)

5 —– 5,6,11,12,15 —– 1,8,10,13 —–  4,6,8,9,13

 

MELBOURNE QUAD

Here is a cheap Melbourne Quad that costs $20 for 100%

1,2,5,7,9 —– 6 —– 9 —– 3,7,8,10

 

This Weeks ‘Longshot’- Race 6 No.12- DAZZLE US around $12

(not easy to find one this week but expect this horse to run well at the double figure odds and worth throwing in quaddie at the very least)

 

‘THE PROPHET’S’ BEST BETS:  (Some big value this week with one selection)

Flemington Race 5 No.2 ALZORA   $19 + $5.50 on Tatts opening.

Rosehill Race 7 No.8 AERONAUTICAL   $4.80

 

TATTS JACKPOTS and PROMOS

 

**There is a promo at the bottom of the page….

 

DOOMBEN

Nothing of note to report

 

ROSEHILL

5/2 Rusambo $11.0 to $9.0

6/1 Driefontein $5.5 to $5.0

8/10 Territory $6.5 to $5.0

 

FLEMINGTON

1/3 Great Esteem $10.0 to $7.0

5/3 Spending $5.0 to $4.6

6/8 High Esteem $31.0 to $26.0

7/8 Shamexpress $3.0 to $2.9 (fav out market)

 

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

Tatts

for

Saturday, 16 February 2013

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

QD

DOOMBEN (BR)

-

$131,167

RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

5

$2,000

ROBIN DUNDEE STAKES

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

8

$2,000

HONDO GRATTAN STAKES

F4

MELTON (MT)

4

$2,000

4YO BONANZA

F4

MELTON (MT)

8

$2,000

E.B. COCHRAN TROTTERS CUP

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$21,972

RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

TT

MT GAMBIER (AT)

-

$2,923

RACES 4, 5 & 6

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

THE MEADOWS (MG)

5

$1,000

ZOOM TOP

F4

THE MEADOWS (MG)

6

$1,000

ROOKIE REBEL

F4

THE MEADOWS (MG)

8

$1,000

TEMLEE