Doomben 9/12 on ‘The Punt’

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Massive fields but that often means scratching at Doomben so very important to check in after 9am Saturday as speed maps can be thrown out and that has a massive effect on the races.

Looks a great card so hoping to find a bit of value.

*TRACK- I’m doing form on a good 3 track, I feel with 33 degree weather it could be hard and fast at days end and I do think it will play to the front but always a question after they race here Friday also.

Helsby's

 

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BLACKBOOKERS:

In other article from Thursday*

 

FRIDAY SELECTIONS – DOOMBEN
*Just the one bet for me, better prices were bet but I’ll just be having an allup DARKTOWN STRUTTER into I AM IMPINGE.

DARKTOWN STRUTTER returned a treat and I believe nearly broke the track record at the GC. She is well placed again and should be winning. I AM IMPINGE was poor fresh but i think he is better than these. It is D-day and he must step to the plate to say he can win better races.

*The allup is only around the $5 mark but that’s my Friday play*

 

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UPDATE: Very frustrating for myself trying to get previews out with the forecast of a chance of a storm Saturday. Well we got 15ml Friday and now the storms are predicted Saturday morning and if they hit me may be on a Heavy track.

I’VE UPDATED THIS FOR A SOFT TRACK AS I THOUGHT WITH THE WEATHER IT COULD BE HARD AND FAST.

Race 1:

A good race with a few chances to kick the card off.

SPEED: KING OF THE NORTH (gate 3) and BLUE BOOK (4) both try to lead and they will have FULLAZABOOT (2) driving up underneath them so it may be a case of who blinks first.

It is hard to line these up with different formlines. Can’t knock BLUE BOOK, he has been excellent winning his only two starts. The time last time wasn’t great but all you can do is beat what’s in front of you. Does also get to the 59kg and spotting them weight.

I liked what I witnessed with FULLAZABOOT but was he flattered by the Heavy 10? How has he come through the bog track run? Recent trial looked ok and I wouldn’t be surprised if Browne took the box seat and let the others go (although it was nice to see him aggressive on the Snowden horse last week). Think he will love the step to 1200m.

KING OF THE NORTH was also an all the way winner at the Sunny coast beating BARD OF AMARGH there. He was dominant to win by 2.3L lengths on that occasion but there is a 1kg swing to BARD OF ARMARGH and he also gets the blinkers first time, not sure there will be much between them here.

GRIM REAPER might be next best.

*Slight leaning to FULLAZABOOT.

On Top: 2-FULLAZABOOT $3.20

Hardest To Beat: 1-BLUE BOOK, 3-KING OF THE NORTH $11, 6-BARD OF ARMARGH

 

 

Race 2:

Full field here and another good race.

SPEED: Good speed from LUNA FIORE, NIGHT ATTIRE, CHARIOT OF GOLD and LEGS UNBARRED all wanting to lead or be right on speed. For that reason I want one that can park in behind that hot speed and in front of midfield. MEHMETO looks to get the gun run along with a horse like BENFICA PRINCESS who can come out half positive to slot in one off the fence in front of midfield.

The horse that may land where I want is BENFICA PRINCESS and I like the fact this is a nice drop in grade from her last prep where she was placed ordinarily over longer trips in blacktype races.. Trialled well and placed perfect fresh to get a kill at the GC cup day and this a good progression. 2nd up last prep was placed in a Listed race behind Candika, that reads well when some of those in the market here are class 1-2 horses and like the fact M.Rodd is on top to give her every hope.

MEHMETO gets the gate to get the gun run and he will be a factor but I feel he is ready for the mile now and may just struggle to sprint with them. Had every chance last start where he was solid but just lacks the dash to put them away over the shorter trip in my opinion. Can go in all exotic bets.

I AM IMPINGE is potentially the best horse in the race but may not gain a run and if he does then he has to overcome the gate. The gate makes it bloody hard but he’s pretty handy for a race like this.

CONTRALTO was good for Dunn first run at stable but that race looked poor. Can still be good late.

If PRINCE OF TIE could get a soft lead he’d be a chance at big odds but with the speed in this he might just be better for it.

POLEMIC joins the Stephen Lee yard and on the Sydney runs and recent trial an ordinary race like this isn’t out of reach by any means while on the fresh side. Did enough in a recent trial.

SORNJA and PEGAPUS obvious chances and hard in the market but at $5 and $6 I just think they are probably shorter than they should be.

*Pretty keen at $8.50 + $3.50 to back BENFICA PRINCESS.

On Top: 11-BENFICA PRINCESS $8.50

Hardest To Beat:  3-MEHMETO, 13-SORNJA

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Race 3:

Not sure I want to play here or not yet.

SPEED: The map says BOOM BOOM EPIC is the one, not much speed and although she isn’t great out of the gates Byrne should be able to be positive and find the lead here. Should be a big advantage.

BOOM BOOM EPIC looks  the only leader unless there is a change of tactics, also gets blinkers off and winkers on. Lloyd sat three wide last start and this girl and she was brave over the 1350m and the 1600m should suit her now. Many of these have a good swing in the weights against MAGNUFIGHTER but BOOM BOOM EPIC only meets him 0.5kg better off. Looks the one to beat, I just don’t think there is much meat on the bone at $2.40.

MAGNUFIGHTER beat most of these last start and all signs are the step up in trip will be fine.

ZAFONIC DANCER was only average last start but as we mentioned before that race the step back in trip wasn’t ideal and we thought he had eyes for this race two weeks later. Has too improve but meets the winner 2.5kg better off and strips fitter for the run a fortnight ago, not the worst.

Tipped MISS MIAO last start and I felt the ride left a bit to be desired but maybe that’s just this horse, she may just be a get back type….. She does have a great turn of foot and meets MAGNUFIGHTER 1.5kg better off and BOOM BOOM EPIC 1kg better off from the last run. I feel she is good enough to run over them but speed in the race and her pattern is an issue.

Only horse away from that formline I give a chance is NASHVILLE SKYLINE who Fradd gave a sore back to last start, If he comes out positive on it this week it could be the sharp improver without surprise.

*Put all my eggs in the form from that race and not the maiden a few come out of at the sunny coast. BOOM BOOM EPIC the map horse, would like to get $3 though.

On Top: 4-BOOM BOOM EPIC $2.50

Hardest To Beat:  3-MISS MIAO, 1-MAGNUFIGHTER, 2-ZAFONIC DANCER, 5-NASHVILLE SKYLINE

 

 

Race 4:

A lot of these don’t have a lot to offer other than being nuisance value so rides pretty important and you don’t want to be getting caught behind the slow ones when everyone starts to make their run.

SPEED: LOCUS (gate 10) goes forward, MY KIND (17 if he runs), KEEP ON LOVING YOU (13) and SHADOW VISION (12) all positive from the gates and roll forward. Two options for Angland on REALING, go back spot them a start and try to get a tow into the race with a horse like DUKE OF CHRISTOPHE or he can let those horse push forward, go forward with them and hope to cross in behind them and land a few pairs back.

If REALING had drawn a gate he’d have been the days good thing. They will be praying on a lot of scratching’s which can happen on this tight track when the fields are so big. To be honest he could nearly sit three wide and be competitive even though you don’t see that very often around Doomben! May do what we said in the speed section and try to slot in behind the leaders.

CHAMALU has been placed horribly! After winning the class 1 he went to a class 6 and started $2.15?? He’s not that good. Then went to the class 3 and was solid enough as that is more his grade but had every chance there and still didn’t run in the money. Now they want you to take $2.50 on him here. Yes he can win the race but you can leave me out at the price.

SHADOW VISION can be on speed which should help around Doomben, lacks a killer turn of foot but may not need it against this lot. Form has lined up ok from his last couple of runs.

DUKE OF CHRISTOPHE finished alongside CHAMALU last start and he is $17 here. Has mixed his form a little but from the gate they should be looking to land midfield and a race like this is suitable for him.

*At the big price I’ll back DUKE OF CHRISTOPHE  and something on REALING also as he is clearly the best horse in the race and just needs a pinch of luck.

Roughie: 3-DUKE OF CHRISTOPHE $17

Hardest To Beat: 6-REALING

Others:  2-CHAMALU,  7-SHADOW VISION, 4-LOCUS

boomracing

 

Race 5:

Very important to know how many of these scratch, for that reason we will update race morning.

One horse that is flying at present is DAPPER ONE for Les Ross. Fradd has been on the last three starts and she has won two/placed in the other. Doomben record is ordinary but just looks to have turned the corner. The win at the SC showed a nice turn of foot and then last week at the GC with 58kg she was also pretty dominant late and drops 4hg into this. At the big odds ($20) I’ve had something small on and hoping she finds some cover.

RUTHLESS AGENT is another in form and this a big drop in grade from the Redouble race in Syd. Before that he was excellent at Goulburn and the good tempo will suit ideally. The issue is getting some cover and will need a lot of luck from the sticky draw.

From a draw I’d be very keen PLUCKY GIRL but I’d be very surprised if the Edmonds camp run her.

HIGH COST going really well but the 1200m is the issue there. IRON GEORGE and I’M A JET both good on speed runners but I expect really good pressure so the last 50m may be heart in mouth stuff with them.

DRUMBEATS CHOICE was very good fresh in a much harder race and then flat and ordinary 2nd up. At his best he’d start fav but can find it hard to salute.

*DAPPER ONE interests as does RUTHLESS AGENT but not a good past time backing them from these gates.

Roughie: 19-DAPPER ONE $21

 

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Race 6:

Often these staying races are simply terrible but this is the most interesting one I can remember! Plenty of these are in good form and if I don’t mention your horse don’t be too upset as not much would surprise in such an even race.

SPEED: KARAKABEEL will be the leader but horses like SINGING and SHEZA LILY won’t be far away. KIRINI probably positive again from the wide draw while ZAMEX and MONASTERIO may want to try and sit closer from good gates this time (by closer I mean around midfield would be ideal for those two)

SINGING is an interesting runner, he has been well held at his recent Sydney runs but the Wyong cup was strong and beaten under 3L there. Last start he gave Interlocuter 4.5kg and was beaten nearly 6L. This is a massive drop in grade and he drops 5kg into this so far from out of it.

ZAMEX has been building this prep and was solid enough in the country classic last start. $10 interests but I just wonder if he needs the blinkers on to attack the line?

SHEZA LILY has be placed super and gone through the grades with style. She will get the gun run here and look the winner on straightening. My only query with her is the weight. Yes she has won 6 races but as I said easier grade and she spots another 4yr old mare like PERILOUS LOVE 4.5kg and last time that fill got to 2000m at Doomben she was group placed! The gate is the not ideal PERILOUS LOVE but she put the writing on the wall last time and just needs some luck from the gate to be the one they have to hold out late.

*Don’t think this is a race I will be betting in at this stage.

UPDATED:

On Top: 9-MONASTERIO $5

Hardest To Beat: 13-PERILOUS LOVE, 4-SHEZA LILY, 7-ZAMEX, 19-PRIVATE HERO $34

 

 

Race 7:

SPEED: Leader will be SHEISWHATSHEIS and a few from outside gates positive but not crazy speed by any means.

SHEISWHATSHEIS opened $17 around the place which was overs, she was good over the unsuitable trip fresh and to 1350m suits and a tempo that will suit.

ZUMBELINA not far off the speed here and should get every opportunity. Put a line through the last start and form before that measures up to these. Thought she was a bit under the right price but one of the main hopes.

NOTONYOURLIFE may have won the blackbook followers some cash when she saluted and touched $41 last start, how is she $9 again here? Her last prep was her best, her trials said she was going better than ever and the fresh win was devastating. Has to be right in this if the track is fair, good price!

I’m a believer in INSPIRED ESTELLE and I have to go again at the $21. Lloyd was all at sea last start and didn’t really giver her every chance. They will stamp her urgent and should try to box seat from the gate as they know SHEISWHATSHEIS will take them into the straight and that’s their chance to peel off her and go by.

OUR BEEBEE ready to win and step to 1350m is what she’s been screaming for. Asking to take half the price NOTONYOURLIFE is a bit rich but she’s getting back to her best and will take some beating here!

OFF THE DAY some hope and will be better for the fresh run.

*Good race. Have backed NOTONYORLIFE and INSPIRED ESTELLE. May even play quinellas with OUR BEEBEE as well.

Value: 5-NOTONYOURLIFE $8.50 ++  15-INSPIRED ESTELLE $21

Hardest To Beat: 7-OUR BEEBEE, 3-SHEISWHATSHEIS

 

 

 

Race 8:

SPEED: ZAHSPEED will lead these, EMPHASIS and CANTBUYBETTER likely to push forward and be in the first couple of pairs while the fav CRACK ME UP should get the run of the race.

CRACK ME UP was the best bet on the program last start, gets a similar gate, to 1600m and this should be a carbon copy. He should stalk the speed and be too good.

CANTBUYBETTER was wide the entire and can be a sharp improver.

TOO GOOD TO REFUSE got gelded and improved last start. Can run well here.

HOPFGARTEN will do his thing, RUDY will be better for the fresh run and SAN TELMO can go in first 4’s at a big price.

RUDY improves second up and likes the edge out of track.

*Keen CRACK ME UP

On Top: 4-CRACK ME UP $2.50

Others for first 4′s: 2,6,1,7,13

 

 

 

Race 9:

Worried about scratching here. Will update race day. No leaders in any form whatsoever and I think track may be a leaders paradise at tis stage if rain stays away.

 

 

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GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Race 8 No.4- CRACK ME UP $2.50

Next Best:

Race 2 No.11- BENFICA PRINCESS $9

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Brisbane Race 6 No.9- MONASTERIO

Melb Race 7 No.3- ONCIDIUM RULER

 

STEVE HEWLETTS BEST:

 

SHANE CIURLEOS BEST:

Race 3 No.4- BOOM BOOM EPIC $2.50

Best e/w

Race 2 No.11- BENFICA PRINCESS $9