Doomben Cup Day 2019

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Track played great last week and expecting more of the same again. RAIL is 2m which is a fair area and this will be a very good form meeting moving forward.

*As always feel free to share with any mates heading to the track/pub etc. And PREVIEW Will be UPDATED after 8am Saturday*

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*A thankyou to a good mate Brad Davidson who has given me a bit of a heads up the NSW visitors this week.

Race 1: * * *

SPEEDMAP:

Interesting race but the speedmap reads as though there isn’t a lot of speed in this. RED COLOUR has had 23 starts on dry ground without a win but that hasn’t stopped the money coming in recent runs, there has been support multiple times and where there is smoke with this stable there is often fire. She can sit on speed here and play a big role with tempo to suit.

The kiwi SACRED DAY is possibly the best horse and if there was more speed I think he’d just clean them up. From the good gate he might be able to land in front of 4-5 and if that’s the case he can run over them late. DANSEZ is one who might be able to roll forward on the speed and she has been good this prep, can be around the money.

*Could back SACRED DAY and hope he gets the splits. Possibly a small save RED COLOUR.

On Top: 11-SACRED DAY $5.50

Hardest To Beat: 13-RED COLOUR $6, 12-DANSEZ

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Race 2: * *

SPEEDMAP:

Not a race i’m that keen on. Forgiving TUNERO the bog track run and going on his fresh run that was very good. He is still on the way up and on better ground he can improve sharply.

GUISE will have plenty of support but i just feel she’s had it her own way in slow run races in easier grade than this. She may well be good enough to step up here and win but it will be without me.

GOLD AMBITION runs here with the 2kg claim. He is frustrating as he always finds one better but with a good ride he’s a winning chance, just needs to find the back of the right horse.

*Small win bets TUNERO and GOLD AMBITION for me.

On Top: 2-GOLD AMBITION $7.50 +++ 4-TUNERO $10

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Race 3: * *

SPEEDMAP:

Cracking race and a few with futures. Huge amount of tempo and the main hopes have drawn incredibly bad! This is not a good starting point and with so much speed underneath it looks ugly for GEM OF SCOTLAND (gate 16) and CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (17).

GEM OF SCOTLAND trialled like a rocket Tuesday and comes her unbeaten. Her last win was devastating and if she’d drawn a gate she’d be a bet, I just struggle backing horses from out there at Doomben. She’s flying and if things fall her way she can win.

CALIFORNIAN ZIMBOL has to either find the back of that other filly or go back and ride for luck off the hot speed. Feel she is promising and is another who needs a lot of luck.

PERUDO looks the best of Gollan’s in the race and have liked what I’ve seen with her. She can camp behind the hot speed and expect her to be in the finish.

*Had a re-think here after hearing they may be a little more quiet on GEM OF SCOTLAND, i’ll lean her way.

On Top: 2-GEM OF SCOTLAND $3.40

Hardest To Beat: 6-PERUDO, 9-CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL

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Race 4: * *

SPEEDMAP:

What a race!

I was leaning PLAGUE STONE all week but after the draw ZOUSTYLE gets the nod every so slightly, in saying that I’m not overly keen and definitely not keen enough to bet. I’ll be watching on.

ZOUSTYLE will hold the lead while PLAGUE STONE is likely to be around 5-6th. The fact ZOUSTYLE runs time each win makes it hard for the other bloke to get out after him and run him down, he will need the breaks at the right time while ZOUSTYLE will be off and gone. If this was 1100m I’d be betting but at the 1200m I feel it gives PLAGUE STONE a chance.

DREAMREACHER possibly next best behind the favs but I’m just waiting to see how this all pans out!

Selections 1-2-6

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Race 5: * * * *

SPEEDMAP:

Really liked what QUILISTA $4.20 did at the GC, she was just ok out, worked to get up on pace and was then posted wide the trip. She still travelled sweet on the corner. It took Demerara to nail her on the line and she carried 59.5kg on the bottomless track. Back on top of the ground, Kerrin to ride and gate 3 means she should be able to hold the lead at a tempo to suit. Has to lump the weight again but very hard to run down around Doomben.

Thought there might have been a better price bet about STELLA VICTORIA (SCR) ($5.50) but they have got it right. She was very good last prep, she gets Lloyd back on and her run at G2 level last start was good. She ran the 2nd quickest split from the 400-200m but condition might have let her down late. This is a nice drop in grade from that.

There are plenty of other chances but I’m backing QUILISTA and making STELLA VICTORIA a winning result also.

On Top: 1-QUILISTA $4.20

Hardest To Beat: 7-STELLA VICTORIA

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Race 6: *

SPEEDMAP:

MEET MR TAYLOR is one of the more exciting types we have in QLD and I’ve been waiting to see him turn up here. Unfortunately he draws wide yet again! This is not a spot you want to be wide and there is plenty of speed underneath, he may still be good enough to win as he is a ripper but they are hard to back from out there. His last four runs he’s drawn 9/11, 7/8, 9/10 and now 15/15.

Think the roughie could be IN GOOD TIME, she has been running in Group races and has drawn to get a good run behind the speed. She is $21+ and goes in exotics at least.

ISURIAN is the obvious, he is unbeaten fresh, he gets the good gate with J Mac on top and has raced well up here before. $3.60 looks short enough for mine but he does have a lot going for him.

WHYPEEO could win without surprising and you have to forgive him the fresh run when nothing went right. Just starting to have some trust issues with the horse but he’s good on his day. No knock on MR MARBELLOUZ, he’s just not one of mine. I do rather him at the 1100m which is a positive.

*Had a very small place bet IN GOOD TIME $6. I’d love MEET MR TAYLOR to win but too big of a gamble from the gate for me.

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Race 7: * * *

SPEEDMAP:

CHAPTER AND VERSE went up around $4.40 but was smashed early in betting. I’d have still taken $3+ but looks as though he will start shorter than that. He’s an extremely progressive horse, he was the only one to break 23 (400m) home fresh in what was a dominant display in a very handy race. Gets a good gate and speed on again. Should probably win this but the price is the issue.

The roughie is SHOGUN SUN, not really one of mine but he is going well this prep. He was a touch unlucky behind Scallopini two runs back before they pulled the wrong rein and went to a mile with him (ride was below avg that day also). Rock hard fit and I have him three pairs back getting a good run in transit. At $26 I could have a 1×3 bet on him if the fav is too short.

PASSAGE OF TIME is a better horse since being gelded, he can be competitive, just not sure where they land from the gate.

D-Day for I’M A RIPPA, won’t be easy with others pushing forward and he has the weight to lump but Lloyd rides and i’m scared to put a line through him just yet.

On Top: 10-CHAPTER AND VERSE $3.10

Roughie: 13-SHOGUN SUN $26

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Race 8: * * * *

SPEEDMAP:

THE DOOMBEN CUP

Waller looks to have timed the prep of YOUNGSTAR beautifully. 2nd up she was in the 1800m of the Hollindale and ran the he last time she ran at 2000m she was 2nd to a horse called WINX. She has had 6 runs at 2000m+ and won or placed in 4, the only the two times she missed were in Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. She excelled in QLD last year and with luck in running she looks the winner.

LIFE LESS ORDINARY was excellent winning the Hollindale but he is always consistent. Any rain would help but he’s not just a wet tracker. Should find a good spot and will be strong again.

Forgive KENEDNA who just didn’t handle the bog track at the GC. She is a Group winner at 2000m and can bounce back.

FIERCE IMPACT is a nice horse on the way up and 2000m suits. Little query is the WFA scale but can run well.

On Top: 13-YOUNGSTAR $5

Hardest To Beat: 12-KENEDNA, 2-LIFE LESS ORDINARY, 12-FIERCE IMPACT

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Race 9: * * *

SCARLET DREAM was outstanding behind a star in the ATC Oaks and has trialled nice since that run, she’s clearly the one to beat. She needs a dry track to show her best but the oaks run was outstanding and clearly the best form race leading into this.

ON THE WHITE TURF was going through the grades before not having a lot of luck in the G3 Frank Paker. Recent trial very good, J Mac rides and will be around the money.

ALIFEROUS the underrated filly, won the G2 Adrian Knox before running 4th in the oaks behind three very good fillies. She will be in front of her main rivals and if they find back luck she might be off and gone.

*Happy to think these fillies bring the right form. The favs likely to get back and make wide runs to avoid horses on the inside falling back on them. The way this race shapes I don’t feel there is a lot between the three but SCARLET DREAM will get better out to oaks/derby trips.

On Top: 1-SCARLET DREAM $2.60

Hardest To beat: 15-ON THE WHITE TURF, 2-ALIFEROUS

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GIBBOS BEST:

To be updated and final after 8am Saturday*

Race 5 No.1-QUILISTA $4.20

Race 8 No.13-YOUNGSTAR $5

QUADDIE NUMBERS:

2,7,9,13,14 —- 10 —- 2,10,12,13 —- 1,2,15  (price guide $60 for 100%)

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THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Race 6 No.7-ISURIAN $3.10

Race 9 No.13-YOUNGSTAR $5