Doomben on ‘The Punt’ Saturday

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Rail is at 4m and that is usually the best and fairest spot. Still not sure why we have given it a rest and now race 2-3 times a week on it lately?

Anyway, looks a decent days racing so let’s run the eye over them.

Race 1:

Very even and should be a battle of tactics. Have always had time for SURPRISE BULLET and the stable he is in. Drops back from a good quality CL6 last week and should be able to box seat, probably rather 1800m but only backed up once for a good win. KING DINISTY ready to win but they persist with Ljung, she is a good jock but a real chance of being out ridden by the best when you race here of a Saturday. May sit outside lead and take that concern away? Opening $13 was a good price.

REIBY THE RED has only won 3 of 44 which is a major concern, going very well lately but tempo has suited, this is slower run. The Kelly horses are starting to run through the line after a horrible run so you have to take that into account also.

*SURPRISE BULLET and KING DINISTY the way I’m leaning off this tempo.

On Top: 5-SURPRISE BULLET + 6-KING DINISTY $10

Next Best: 3-REIBY THE RED

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Race 2:

Almost an identical race as we witnessed a fortnight ago. Very little between them all on that occasion and the winner FOLLOW SUIT might have had a fitness edge on them, he jumps in weight and feel that the stablemate VAUCLUSE BAY will be the one who takes the most improvement out of the run last time. For that reason I have him on top but very little between 4-5 of these.

*Very small interest bet on VAUCLUSE BAY.

On Top: 5-VAUCLUSE BAY $5.50

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Race 3:

Three main chances.

THE ODYSSEY- Brings the MM lead up form and he was very good that whole prep. Leads and hard to catch. Just never a fan of 2yr olds with short breaks and asked to peak again.

READY TO ROAM- Excellent and unlucky behind the highly touted stablemate Garibaldi, checked and should have finished closer. Sits outside lead and gets every chance.

XANTHUS- The stalker but if they go slow he might have a task. Reckon he probably ends up the best horse out of the race and liked the run behind what is probably the best 2yr old in Qld at present in Vincere Volare. Will improve from the outing.,

Selections 2-3-1

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Race 4:

Couple of very good ones here and both in the Gollan camp, an embarrassment of riches when it comes to the juveniles this year.

NEIDORP has been brilliant in all trials but only had the one start where she went to Toowoomba and took on a Currie speedster on it’s own track and was tipped out after the run on a soft6. Trials this time in have been excellent and she’s a ripper.

PERUDO won a weak race in Toowoomba but she was outstanding doing so and reeled off the fastest L400 of the night after getting it cheap throughout. Easded down there and is well above avg.

*Look, Gollan/Stewart may not even know which one is better but happy to take their lead and Stewart rides PERUDO

On Top: 5-PERUDO + 3-NIEDORP

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Race 5:

Honestly, I don’t know. What do you do with MISHANI HUSTLER, huge fresh and then went like a busted arse when I made it the best of the day only to bounce back and win next start. Beat home SNICKI MINAJ there and meets her 2kg better off for beating her.

WINTER PASSAGE has been good all prep. She beat home MH after stalking him three runs back. She then run 3rd to Macewen and Magic Fox after spotting them both weight and last start took on the older mares in what was a walking race but come from last to lose in a photo.

Can make cases for a lot of others and this is a very even event.

*Small e/w bet WINTER PASSAGE for me.

On Top: 8-WINTER PASSAGE e/w $10

Hardest To Beat: 1-MISHANI HUSTLER, 11-KITTIE KINS

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Race 6:

Reckon EMPHASIS has to be a risk here, he’s been excellent all prep but they set it up by going at a ridiculous tempo last start and the fact he was a superior staying type Lloyd was able to lift him to win, this should be run at a slow tempo and he may end up last. The only thing keeping him in the game is Lloyd, who knows what he tries? He may take off at the 600m and circle them.

Usually when I think a fav is a risk you are keen to back something but there is nothing I want to back. EL CAMPEADOR meets the fav 2kg better off and this tempo will suit him but I just don’t trust the horse to be fair.

*Staying out.

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Race 7:

Heaps of speed and LINLITHGOW the fav should get the perfect run third the fence while other hopes are three wide or back. Don’t want to take anything under $3 but off her recent trial she is clearly the horse to beat.

Best roughie is COOL DRAFTS, clearly her career best was in a BM75 here one day where they went lickety split and she grew wings late, this will be the fastest run race she has been in since and with a feather weight she might be able to land in the money somewhere at $41.

On Top: 15-LINLITHGOW $3

Roughie: 17-COOL DRAFTS $41

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Race 8:

Well wasn’t this fun when markets opened!! MR MARBELLOUZ was $3.90 into $2 in about 4 mins while TUMBLER was $7.50-$10-$6.50.

look MR MARBELLOUZ gets the lead here with no SPURCRAFT engaged, he’s been great at both runs back and with the lightweight around Doomben he is the obvious and should win, no meat on the bone at $1.75 though, that’s too short for me! I’m amazed at the amount of people saying he’s a moral, every man and his dog is declaring him. At $2.80+ i’d have been keen to bet and even though he’s a likely winner I couldn’t even consider taking $1.75 personally.

TUMBLER mixes her form but being a little forgiving of last start where the winner run them off their legs and it was nearly a single file race and they stayed in line the entire straight, she still ran the fastest last split and this might be run a little more to her liking. At $8 I think she’s clearly the value runner.

Liked TAWFIQ BOY fresh and he can be in the money somewhere.

On Top: 6-MR MARBELLOUZ + 3-TUMBLER $6

Next Best: 8-TAWFIQ BOY

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Race 9:

Cracking way to finish the day.

Does LANGHRO run out a fast 1350m? Reckon he’s the best horse and if Cahill takes a sit he should be suited. Been up on hot tempo’s his last three runs and been brave. Cahill completely over did it last start and back to a NMW looks good from the gate.

CONSTANT FLIGHT is the consistent horse on the way up but must have had issues as lightly raced. Has won 4 of 6 so far but never wins by a margin. Gets the gun run from the gate, will take some beating but looks a bit under the odds to me at $2.80.

Best of the swoopers might be MISHANI VAIDRA who was excellent last prep. She will want further later on but can sprint well fresh and if they over cook it she will be very strong late. Will need luck with the get back pattern.

On Top: 3-LANGHRO $4.20

Hardest To Beat: 6-CONSTANT FLIGHT, 10-MISHANI VAIDRA $16

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GIBBOS BEST:

At the prices I’m staying away from best bets.

If $5 is bet REAL EGO Race 7 GC I’ll have something on. (GOOD track only)

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BRISBANE QUADDIE:

1-5-6-7-8-9

15-17-19

3-6

3-6-10

THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

to be added