Doomben Saturday – ‘The Punt’

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I haven’t ‘loved’ the Brisbane race cards of late and again this isn’t that good of a meeting. A few disappointing fields but there are also a few races that look like good betting affairs so let’s focus on them.

**I TRY TO LET PEOPLE KNOW HOW CONFIDENT I AM LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT HAVE TO ADMIT I DONT REALLY LIKE THIS CARD AND REALLY NOTHING I SUPER KEEN TO JUMP INTO

**BRISSYRACES DAY will be at the Pineapple Hotel on the 21st of October- Caulfield Cup Day. Pretty much just a day at the pub with some giveaways and fun with like minded people.

All welcome*

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DOOMBEN

Rail +5.5m

 *Be sure to send the link/text/email of the preview to mates!

 

BLACKBOOKERS:

*Hopefully punters got DUKE OF CHRISTOPHE through the week, it didn’t come through to me so I didn’t put it up sorry, not sure why that happened.

Of The Day – Sat Sept 9 Doomben R2- Short but the one to beat.

Madame Lily – Sat Sept 9 Doomben R7- Will run well.

 

 

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https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=134265

 

Race 1:

He will be prohibitive odds but as long as Lloyd keeps him upright and in clear air WHYPEEO (opened $1.50) should take care of this lot.

HINGUS ROSE the next best and is going ok also.

*No value in the first.

On Top: 1-WHYPEEO

 

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Race 2:

On the last run nothing can get close to OF THE DAY $2.10, she is fair dinkum airborne. On that occasion I felt FINAL ZERO may have got an easy lead but a poor ride on another horse made sure that didn’t happen and after being pestered she ran well to finish a distant 2nd to OF THE DAY who was dominant. 2kg swing in the weights to FINAL ZERO $5.50 and although it’s hard to see her turning the table I don’t think it’s impossible and if she got to tasty odds I may have a little nibble on a fast track around Doomben. (That $5.50 is as low as $3.50 some places now)

They are the clear to for me again here. Only a small play.

*At the $5.50 I had something on FINAL ZERO and saved on OF THE DAY at black figures.

On Top:  3- OF THE DAY  ++  7- FINAL ZERO

 

 

Race 3:

Interesting race and even though it’s a small field there should be enough pace with PRIMAL FLIGHT and URBAN KNIGHT engaged (if they both run).

They set it up for one of two horses in my mind. MISHANI SLEUTH will start fav but has been costly his last two, they have both been solid runs but the boom on him was over the top, he is handy but won’t be winning anything extravagant any time soon. He has again found a race he SHOULD win but thinking price of $1.75 doesn’t really interest.

BEAT STREET has been 3 wide both his last two starts and was still strong through the line last time out. Three back he led and was dominant at the sunny coast. Should sit on the leaders backs here and get first shot at them. Might be the value here at $6

*I have it to those two as the winning hopes but anything could fill the minor holes. $1.75doesn’t interest me a horse that’s had every chance his last two. Might not bet here.

On Top: 6-BEAT STREET $6

Hardest To Beat: 7-MISHANI SLEUTH $1.75

 

Star Witness filly

 

Race 4:

SPEED will come from DREAMS APLENTY who I think will lead FLAMBOYER with FRESPANOL and MYSTIC OPAL the two behind them.

Race doesn’t interest me to be honest, no firm opinion. I feel DREAMS APLENTY is a very good horse who could run them into the ground if right, how forward is he?

MYSTIC OPAL was excellent last week, has backed up once before and ran 4th of 15.

FRESPANOL went forward and ran away from them last time, he is going really well.

*That looks the quinella between the three but no bets for me.

 

 

Race 5:

Good speed as you’d expect over the sprint trip.

GATLINBURG touched $8 opening and if you go off his last two runs on the dry tracks he has been excellent. Right over the top in an easier race at Ipswich before beating a handy enough field at the GC two Saturdays ago at the metropolitan race day. With the speed on and from gate 6 I think Gryll doesn’t have to go as far back, may be able to settle in front of 4-5 runners just worse than midfield and run over them again. J.Meagher is striking at 33% this season and 218% Return on investment, stable is airborne!

HOT GOSSIP got the cash for us fresh at around the $9 mark and she gets the favours again this week. Can sit right behind the good speed, maybe three pairs back and get last shot at the leaders.

TARZAN was a short priced leader against HOT GOSSIP that day and he blew the start, but that’s just him, he can’t be trusted and personally is a no bet conveyance in a race like this.

Could make a case for another handful of runners in a very open race.

*At around the $8 I’ve had something e/w GATLINGBURG or even back him and something HOT GOSSIP instead of e/w the other one.

Value: 5-GATLINBURG $8 (This $8 has been gobbled up to about $5)

Hardest To Beat: 11-HOT GOSSIP $5

 

 

Race 6:

This is another race I’m just going to avoid.

*Many of these are ready to win and no real confidence so don’t want to be steering you.

 

Haydon racing

Race 7:

I’ve been waiting for MADAME LILY to step out again after her debut run in QLD when back and then wide, the effort was good and she’d improve off the run. She has found a handy enough race though and is no gimme. At the $11 mark she might be worth a play but I was hoping she’d fall into an easier race. (Drops 3.5kg into this)

MY GIRL HAYLEY has been solid as usual and broke through this prep leading and holding them off at the Sunny coast. Rock hard fit after a few runs back, will again push forward and be around the money.

SARAJEVO is SARAJEVO.

VALLESCO $17 is one I have time for but was poor last time out. Blinkers go on and sharp improvement wouldn’t shock.

SEE MIRACLES was a dead set myth but won a maiden then got the blinkers on and spaced them last time. Time was only similar to others on the day so not flash but the way she won was impressive. At $10 may be some value and carries just 52.5kg

The top three all coming off wins so another race you can make a case for plenty

*MADAME LILY and SEE MIRACLES seem fair prices at $11 and $10. Keen to wait and see what market support comes there way closer to the race. Possibly backing both at the price.

On Top: 10-SEE MIRACLES $10

Hardest To Beat: 8-MADAME LILY $10

 

 

Race 8:

No doubt SABKHAT has to be right in the market of his two runs back this time in but I feel $2.30 is a really short quote in this. Strong late behind Manias last week is a good form line and he has been on the back up twice and won one of them. He can win, I just don’t like the price.

MONTEUX is the horse I feel is value at $8. Many punters don’t like horses back in trip but it’s not much of a concern for me (but each horse is different I guess). This horse has been in great form in open company. He ran 3rd to Mr Epic over 2000m and then turned the tables when up on speed over 2040m, that horse has since won again in a good race a fortnight ago. MONTEUX has had a freshen up but trialled well at Deagon on Wednesday over 1050m. Feel he is the value runner.

Plenty of others here who are up to it on their day- EL CAMPEADOR, LORD COCONUTS, KING RED, CORNROW etc all possibilities but hard to trust and I think the first two mentioned are the key players.

*Just when I thought I couldn’t be more depressed about this card, one of the ones i was keen on has been scratched in MONTEUX. SABKHAT on top but $2.20 is bloody short for him!

On Top:  4-MONTEUX $8

Now on top:  6-SABKHAT

 

 

Race 9:

Another race I’ve backed two horses, NO ANNAMOSSITY and PUBLISHING POWER. Simply think PUBLISHING POWER is some value at $9, he has been very good this preparation winning three back at the SC  over 1000m, then put in a flat one before a great effort behind Havasay who has won 4 straight. Importantly he was strong through the line there and that’s a pointer to him running the 1350m. Will need a good ride from Pegus but seems over the odds in this.

NO ANNAMOSSITY had the long lay off and returned with a nice run behind Havasay. He was under the odds next time out when 2nd up off the long break and staying at 1200m, he was beaten there but I’m sure that was just a stepping stone for the prep as he wants further. I’m sure he wants 1400m on a big track or 1600m around here but this step to 1350m is still ideal this time of the prep after those two runs back. $4.20 was bet and taken! Into $2.50 now and I can say that’s getting more than short enough. Have him on top and one of the better bets but really want to bet getting $3+ to have any meat on the bone. It helps that the Heathcote stable have found some good form with 5 winners from last 13 starters, hoping this one adds to the tally.

ALL THAT IS is going ok, SAYS ME has form around Fabvier and Plucky Girl who are in form while BOURBAN ROAD and SHIPWRECKED come off good runs but hard to see them beating NO ANNAMOSSITY and PUBLISHING POWER if they bring their A-game.

*Hard to back both horses now the price has gone NO ANNAMOSSITY. Think he wins but plenty of respect PUBLISHING POWER, especially if the money comes for it, he goes in quaddies.

On Top: 8-NO ANNAMOSSITY $4.20 into $2.50

Hardest To Beat:  2-PUBLISHING POWER $9

 

 

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GIBBOS BEST:

Not that keen to make a best bet but keenest on

GATLINBURG – MONTEUX and NO ANNAMOSSITY

QUADDIE numbers:

1,2,3,4,7

field

6

2,8

 

THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Brisbane Race 6 No.5- LORD COCONUTS $7

 

STEVE HEWLETTS BEST:

Brisbane Race 7 No.5- SCRABBLE e/w

Brisbane Race 2 No.3- OF THE DAY

Sydney Race 5 No.6-EGG TART

 

SHANE CIURLEOS BEST:

Brisbane Race 9 No.2- PUBLISHING POWER $7

Roughie: Dalby Race 5 No.7-WRITTENINTHERAIN $12