Doomben Saturday ‘The Punt’

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Back to Doomben and happy about it. Rail is in a fair position and we see the start of the carnival with some very good races on the card.

A shower or two predicted so hopefully most miss and it stays a good surface.

**UPDATE**
The day has been completely knocked about with scratchings and very little confidence now

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Race 1:

MISHANI VAIDRA is airborne this prep and she was excellent again in the Toowoomba cup. She’s run the fastest L800,600,400,200m in each of her three runs this prep. She will again get back and need a little luck on the corner but she’d be competitive in nearly anything up here in her present form.

Thought the ride of Fradd was extremely ordinary on VAUCLUSE BAY last start, the horse always goes forward and Fradd showed no urgency at the start and the stablemate (fav) was able to cross from the wide gate and take the spot you’d have mapped VAUCLUSE BAY to take and to be honest VB was no hope from that point on. he can box seat here and bounce back.

*Can make a case for many others to fill the placings but MV just on top of VB.

On Top: 2-MISHANI VAIDRA $2.80

Hardest To beat: 3-VAUCLUSE BAY $6.50

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Race 2:

Really hard to line a few of these up so not that keen.

Think the Toowoomba race will line up well and even with Lloyd going on HOWWONDERFULLIFEIS it’s hard to see it turning the tables on GEM OF SCOTLAND who led at an avg tempo but still the best L200m of the race.

KALIK was horrible on debut, then trialled well before a dominant win at the midweeks. The time was just avg but the way he won was good. Gets the box seat again and $9 might be a little over the odds.

Small field and bog track on debut for WINNING SHOT who got the job done, she has a nice action and had trialled well so she can run well.

*Had a small ew bet for an interest KALIK at $10

On Top: 3-KALIK $10

Hardest To Beat: 8-GEM OF SCOTLAND, 11-WINNING SHOT

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Race 3:

He can draw a sticky gate MEET MR TAYLOR! Looked really well placed here and might still be able to win but there is good speed underneath in DANTGA, ALLROUND GLORY and I’VE GOTTA NEL. I’d expect I’VE GOTTA NEL to hold the fence and lead but MEET MR TAYLOR may well be able to sit outside lead and if not could slot in behind that speed, it’s just far from ideal to draw out there.

The x factor might be POET’S LANDING, really liked his first couple of runs and then not sure if he trained off or what happened. His latest trial looked ok and must be going well for them to bring him.

On Top: 2-MEET MR TAYLOR $2.90

Hardest To Beat: 11-POET’S LANDING, 3-I’VE GOTTA NEL

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Race 4:

Not a race I want to really play into.

PONYTALES is the horses that maps to get the gun run and like the fact Stewart goes back on, she seems to race best form him and her run last start was good when three wide the trip.

THE CANDY MAN and BORAZON both get good runs in transit and both have a bit of upside.

Like FRANCISCA but she has some horrible luck with gates and again drawn terrible. She is likely to get a long way back and will need a very good ride and a lot of luck, if she gets it she can win.

*Ponytales maps to look the winner but probably better punting races.

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Race 5:

No speed in this and it may be a race of tactics. HALLELUJAH BOY will cross from the wide gate and lead. TOM MELBOURNE likely to sit 2nd but that is about all the speed. Hard to believe a horse like ORDER AGAIN could land in the first 4 but he might just land there. He was very good last start and starting to resemble the horse we all thought he’d become.

KAONIC has the ability to go forward and i’d be positive on him here. Last time they rode him forward he won a good race on Cup day.

*Have ORDER AGAIN on top from KAONIC and TOM MELBOURNE but the lack of speed takes confidence away here.

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Race 6:

Amazed to see MR MARBELLOUZ open fav over I’M A RIPPA here. Even with the extra 5.5kg I’M A RIPPA should still be taking care of MR MARBELLOUZ who has been caught out at Listed level his last couple. They might have gone a bit hard on him in those runs but the same thing will happen if they try to take on a horse like I’M A RIPPA.

I’M A RIPPA $4 will obviously improve from the run and has a big prep ahead but he loves this track (21:5:6:4), goes well fresh (6:1:2:3) and goes on top here.

On Top: 2-I’M A RIPPA $4

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Race 7:

I’ll be watching on here.

PLAGUE STONE has had a big wrap on him from day one but so far hasn’t lived up to the hype. He’s been gelded and has trialled particularly well leading into this. He could blow them away, I just want to see him do it first because he has promised it before.

Similar story for EF TROOP, exceptional 2yr old who had a poor prep last time in. He’s beaten them up in recent trials but he always has, very good on his day and Lloyd rides but i’d like to see him do it again before I jump in.

SPIRIT’S CHOICE is a very fast filly also, she will be right on speed for a long way. Like what i’ve seen of VEGA ONE since joining the Gollan camp. Issue is how bad he is out of the gates but if he can land midfield from the gate he’s a genuine chance and will be strong late. THE FIRE TRAP should be about half his $41 quote but the gate could be his undoing.

*Keen to watch with an eye to the future.

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Race 8:

Really interesting race and many different formlines to try and line up.

Really like the look of WORD FOR WORD but mostly like the fact there isn’t much speed in this race and she can push forward. She was very good when racing Cossetot who went on to be placed at Group level a few times and the horse she beat when returning has also won since. Not sure why the blinkers have come off when she races so well in them, even if it’s to see if she runs a trip but it’s Waller and it’s hard to argue.

Also liked the run of SHAHZADE $12 on debut, might have only been a Pakenham maiden but she sat three wide and ran away from them late. Out to the mile will suit and hopefully Maloney pushes forward on her.

THINK FREE gets the gun run from the good gate, TATCEE going really well, Lloyd rides and just has the tricky gate. Watch JULKKIS with an eye to the oaks, she goes ok.

*A race with a heap of chances but making WORD FOR WORD and SHAHZADE winning results.

On Top: 12-WORD FOR WORD $3.70

Roughie: 14-SHAHZADE $12

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Race 9:

IMPASSE is screaming to win a race and unfortunately the rain hit before the last start and the market said he couldn’t win. Good speed in this and he’s likely to land in about the third pair. With a bit of luck on the corner he can be winning here and the $7 looks a good price. The run two back where he finished around Tumbler and Order Again is good form for this.

PRINCE OF TIE going as well as he possibly can, Lloyd stays on and he can lead this for a long way. Liked the run of THE AVENGER last start, gets blinkers on and can sit a couple of pairs closer from the good gate, $17 might be over the right price.

*You can make a case for 7-8 horses here but happy to back IMPASSE.

On Top: 9-IMPASSE $7

Roguhie: 14-THE AVENGER $17

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GIBBOS BEST:

Race 1 No.2-MISHANI VAIDRA $2.80

Race 6 No.2-I’M A RIPPA $4

Race 9 No.9-IMPASSE $7

BEST INTERSTATE:

Race 7 No.3-PLAGUE STONE $3.40

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