Doomben ‘The Punt’ preview!

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Back to our usual ‘The Punt’ section! Capacity fields and value everywhere, it’s just a matter of finding it.

There has been rain Wednesday and a chance of a little more.

NOTE: I have done this form on a DEAD surface.

TRACK: DOOMBEN

RAIL: +4m

 

*For those jumping on for the first time because of the Winter carnival this is simply my view on the races and you can make what you like of the information.

The prices are www.tatts.com prices at the time of typing and may have small changes. They also have a $100,000 JACKPOT Quaddie to have a go at!blackbook

 

BLACKBOOK horses this weekend:

Someday – Doomben R3 No.7 (1350m): Bad gate, very good horse!
Viking Heart – Doomben R3 No.12 (1350m): Back in trip but worth thought for tri’s.
Peron – Doomben R3 No.13 (1350m): Deserved fav.
Arinosa – Doomben R4 No.4 (1350m): Airborne this prep, short enough though.
Vilanova – Doomben R5 No.4 (1350m): Will run well $8
Le Val – Doomben R5 No.6 (1350m): Same as above at $13
Missy Longstocking – Doomben R5 No.12 (1350m):
Bound For Earth – Doomben R5 No.14 (1350m): Really like this girl e/w.
Gundy Son – Doomben R6 No.4 (1110m): Will like pace on and get home hard.
Karuta Queen – Doomben R6 No.5 (1110m): Hard to catch.
Griffon – Doomben R6 No.7 (1110m): Same as Gundy Son.
Rangirangdoo – Doomben R8 No.1 (1350m): Best of the roughies in the feature.
Epaulette – Doomben R8 No.10 (1350m): On top selection.

 

 

 

 

Race 1:

These big maidens are very hard races to punt on. It’s not a race I would be having a lot of bets.

SOUTHERLY, VIVE LE VENT, GOLD FLOW, HOLLYWOOD BOUND and VALERIE DAMOUR all have wins coming shortly and none would surprise here.

However the one I will be having something on is MISS FIFI. She has finished off extremely well both runs and should take great improvement coming into this on just her 3rd run. I’m hoping at the 1350m she may be able to sit a bit closer in the run and at around $21 or so. Only trick is now she needs to gain a start…

 

On Top:  18- MISS FIFI  at $21 e/w  (If she gains a run)

Hardest To Beat: 8- HOLLYWOOD BOUND, 15- VALERIE DAMOUR

 

 

 

Race 2:

Capacity field of 3 year olds, 1200m Doomben and many coming off wet track form makes this extremely hard to line up!

Most of the speed horses have drawn ok and get good runs. They will have to be very good to spot some of these a start around Doomben. I think we should be looking for something in the first half of the field.

First of all just forget SEEKING MORE ( I believe may not run now) and HEZA JETSETTER went around. They are not suited by the surface and they will be hoping this track gets to the DEAD range. If that’s the case both are in contention.

GENERAL EXHIBIT returned with a great run beaten 2.4L by Academus which stacks up well here. The only question is if they keep him posted 3 wide early?

I thought REFLECTANCE was terrific in the BTC Cup and this is a big drop in grade. If the 1st up run on the bottomless track didn’t take anything out of him he can step up here.

TUKIYO is the horse well and truly on the upward spiral. She is 3 from 3 and won easy 2st-up albeit against inferior opposition. Don’t sell her short.

The gate is my concern with DISCREET and LOVE FOR RANSOM, while I feel THE CONSPIRATOR and INDUBIOUS are chances to fall into first 4’s at big odds.

*Not a race I’m very keen to be spending much on…..

 

On Top:  6- REFLECTANCE

Hardest To Beat:  8- TUKIYO, 9 – THE CONSPIRATOR.

 

 

Race 3:

There will be big support for PERON and SOMEDAY here. They are the quality horses in the race and probably the two that haven’t reached their peak yet while most others have. PERON should get a lovely run midfield and she will be motoring the last 100m. SOMEDAY has the bad gate and will need luck. This is a fair starting point but he likes to be midfield and that’s probably the hardest place to slot in. I think he has lengths on most of these and will be competitive even if he is caught wide.

I’m one who doesn’t think it is just a two horse race though. The horse at around the $11-12 mark with a chance is SONS OF GOD (if he gains a run). Heathcote has the team flying and this horses’ run 1st up was very good. He will find the front from the wide gate and will look the winner at the 200m. If the fav’s do find trouble in the run this bloke may be off and gone.

NEW DAY RISING is the other speed horse with a chance and LONGSHOREMAN with the 2kg claim gets in well. He has won or placed in 11 of 14 so must go in all exotics.

*Hard to know how to play here. If your happy with the fav’s prices I’d roll with them but if you’re looking for some value in tri’s lookat SONS OF GOD

On Top:  7- SOMEDAY,  17- SONS OF GOD, 13- PERON

Box Trifecta-   4,7,13,17

 

 

Matt Dunn Racing

Race 4:

I’m not one that takes $2 in a capacity field so looking at playing trifecta’s here.

ARINOSA is simply airborne and it does look as though bad luck is the only thing that would get her beaten here. She has put away quality fields with contempt of late and no reason why she won’t here. I think she should be the Stradbroke favourite at the moment and may well be after this race.

The Snowden trio of QUIDNUNC, CLASSICS and BABEL are all chances here and hard to split. SOOKIE better than her last run says and should be forgiven.

BOUND TO BLUSH will push forward and I thought her run at the GC was good only beaten 1.1L and Bowman can take his time getting across from the 1350m starting point.

The other two horses that will settle in the first 5-6 will be the kiwi emergencies PETTY CURY and DIADEME (if they get a run). I think DIADEME is a very smart mare. She is bred to get over ground but she won a G3 in NZ 3 starts back and looked very good. Around Christmas she ran 2nd in a G2 to Shez Sinsational over 1600m which is great form. Although beaten 2.6L last start the effort on that occasion was huge and I think she is the biggest danger to ARINOSA (if there is one?) PETTY CURY will like the step to 1350m in my opinion.

 

On Top:  4- ARINOSA

Trifecta:  4 – 14,17,19 – 7,12,13,14,16,19         guide—-   $15  for 100%

 

 

 

Race 5:

Many have questioned the strength of this field but I think there will be a few smart ones emerge from this race.

Everyone is spruiking ZOUSTAR and he may be very good but I couldn’t find a spot for him in my first few.

More than happy to have something on BOUND FOR EARTH at the $8. Her run in the G2 Champagne was about the run of the day on a track where you couldn’t make ground. Schofield should sit much closer here and I think we will see a very nice horse run very well!

Also can’t believe VILANOVA is $8. The run 1st-up was extremely promising and the step to 1350m is spot on. From gate 8 Bowman should be able to get the run he wants and I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t figure in the finish.

Why is LE VAL $13? He was huge late at the GC and attacked the line to win the Listed Ken Russel. He looks as though he is screaming for the 1350m and I thought he would be nearly half that price.

*I could find a reason to back VILANOVA, LE VAL and BOUND FOR EARTH at the great odds available. I will probably stick with BOUND FOR EARTH e/w.

 

On Top:    14- BOUND FOR EARTH 

Hardest To Beat: 6- LE VAL,  4- VILANOVA,  5- ZOUSTAR

 

 

topline

 

Race 6:            Start of a $100,000 JACKPOT Quadrella on www.tatts.com

Dartboard?

They will go like cut cats here! 2,3,5 and 11 will scorch the turf and play catch me if you can. It will be a case of the last horse standing.

AUDACIOUS SPIRIT is an absolute flyer but can even he hold KARUTA QUEEN off the fence? Probably not. As hard as they will go they are both capable of running extremely fast times so you can’t rule them out.

This is EXCELLANTES pet track/trip with 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs. Rodd should be pleased to take a sit 4th or 5th here as that will be his best chance of winning. This is about his level and he drops 2.5kg here. Heathcote’s other pair of GRIFFON and GUNDY SON are now chance that the pace will be crazy. GRIFFON had no luck and Browne will be patient here and have the last crack in a race run to suit.

I thought METALLURGICAL was a huge chance here but he will be spotting them a big start now from the horror gate and this is the last place you want to draw wide (the Doomben 1110m). BENNYS BUTTONS won 1st up and is a very good horse but again the gate is my big query.

I have landed on PENTASIA but not with a lot of confidence. I am hoping they learnt a bit last prep when they rode her with a sit and she ran a career best. If they try to lead these like she used to I’d be surprised if she won. Not knowing what they will do is the reason I’m again not too keen to get involved here.

ROCKER hasn’t had anything go to plan but from gate 3 and speed on he may be worth some thought for wide quaddies at $21 (follow any money for him)

 

On Top:  11- PENTASIA    +    7- GRIFFON

Hardest To Beat:   5- KARUTA QUEEN, 3-AUDACIOUS SPIRIT

 

 

 

Race 7:

A couple of decent kiwi’s on top here. USAINITY hasn’t missed a place in his 8 career runs and was very good on the unsuitable bog track in the G3 Rough Habit. He may have to settle midfield or so from the gate but he will be in the finish.

AMBITIOUS CHAMPION was a maiden 2 starts ago but his last couple of wins have been outstanding in easier grade. He is still learning but the step to 2200m is a plus also. The only question is the month between runs. He can win here but should be cherry ripe for the derby in a fortnight.

More than willing to stick with LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY who I liked in the Rough Habit. He jumped from 1600-2100m that run and also copped the unexpected heavy track. His run was good enough and back on a better surface he has to be considered for tri’s etc at the very least. Winning hope.

DEAR DEMI is a quality filly and is as tough as nails. She backs up from the G3 Roses win last start and this will be start 22 !!! She was on the back-up when she won the VRC Oaks so that is not an issue.

HAWKSPUR again gets the gun gate. I just think he was flattered on a bias track he handled best. (Rain brings him into it)

*There are other chances but these are my main hopes.

 

On Top:   12- AMBITIOUS CHAMPION

Hardest To Beat:   4- UNSAINITY,  7- LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY,  14- DEAR DEMI

 

 

pineapple

 

Race 8:

A great edition of the Doomben 10,000!

RAIN AFFAIR leads BUFFERING with STEPS IN TIME either making them work, or even pushing up to hold the fence. There is every chance the first 300m-400m could be hectic. YOUR SONG would like to be stalking them and if they do hard early he may get the opportunity to slot into a good position on the fav, but if the pace isn’t what is expected than Bowman is going to have a decision on his hands. If you believe in him I don’t think you’d be jumping off, and there is a chance he may drift to around the $4 on raceday which would be a good price.

No matter the pace EPAULETTE and BETTER THAN READY are the two who get the best runs in the race. Only circumstances pushed BETTER THAN READY back last start and he can sit 5th-6th on the fence here without trouble. He will be hard to hold out but EF would be more to his liking. EPAULETTE was enormous 1st up and although some say disappointing last start he wasn’t beaten far by All Too Hard that punters can’t stop raving about. That is good enough form here and with the gate and improvement on that run he is the horse they have to beat in my eyes.

I’d expect BUFFERING to bounce back and don’t be surprised if they push the button on jumping and take him to the lead. I’m sure they feel that is his strength and they’d love to see him in a war. RAIN AFFAIR will like the 1350m also and Pride would also like to see it roll along in front which makes for a tactical first half of the race.

The best ‘roughie’ in my mind is clearly RANGIRANGDOO. Although he has gate 14, they should run along and he is a genuine G1 performer. Waller is flying and I would be very surprised if he didn’t figure somewhere!

 

 

On Top:   Three year olds  — 10- EPAULETTE  +  8- YOUR SONG   +  15- BETTER THAN READY

Hardest To Beat:  1-RANGIRANGDOO,  2-BUFFERING

 

 

 

 

Race 9:

Looks a race in two but luck in running will play a big part with the big field of stayers.

MIDSUMMER SUN is 2 from 2 in Australia and gets all the favours here for Boss. Gate 6, 54kg (drops 4.5kg on last win) and can take a sit wherever he wants. This is a step in grade but you’d be shocked if he doesn’t measure up. My only question is the clockwise direction? If he races as well here he should win.

LESS IS MORE finally notched his Aussie win and may well go on with it. He also drops 3.5kg on his last win and the step to 2200m should only help. In saying that he is a hard horse to get a guide on at times and we will know even more about him after this.

MARGINS is the underrated horse and at double figure odds ($11) can be forgiven for the heavy track run. I had him down as a wet tracker but it is becoming evident he may be a touch better on top of the ground. His win before that was very strong late with 58.5kg and a better pointer for this with just 54kg on his back.

On Top:  12- MIDSUMMER SUN

Hardest To Beat:  15- LESS IS MORE,  11- MARGINS

 

 

GIBBO’S BEST BETS  (Not as confident this week but here is what I see as the best value bets)

Best Each-way — Race 5 No.14 BOUND FOR EARTH

Next Best each way — Race 7 No. 12 AMBITIOUS CHAMPION

 

BRISBANE QUADRELLA

2,3,4,5,7,11 —-  4,7,12,14  —– 1,2,8,10,15  —– 11,12,15

For those looking to go shorter here is a cheaper one:

3,5,7,11 —- 4,7,12,14  —– 8,10,15  —–  12, 15

 

 

This week’s best ‘Longshot’:  Brisbane Race 1 No 18 MISS FIFI  @ $21  (if she gains a start)

 

‘THE PROPHET’S’ BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 7 No.3 HIPPOPUS

Melbourne Race 5 No.8 SPENDING

 

 

TATTS JACKPOTS and MARKET MOVERS:

 

 TattsBet

DOOMBEN

1/7 Gold Flow   $11/$10

5/1 Vo Heart   $17/$15

7/12 Ambitious Champion   $13/$9

8/10 Epaulette   $7.0/$5.5

 

RANDWICK

Nothing of note to report

 

CAULFIELD

4/6 Ava’s Delight   $16/$11

6/3 Mr Make Believe   $7.5/$6.5

 

 

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

forSaturday, 25 May 2013

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 DOOMBEN (BR) 8 $50,000 DOOMBEN 10,000
QD DOOMBEN (BR) - $100,000 RACES 6, 7, 8 & 9
         

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 1 $10,000 M3 TO M4
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 4 $2,000 JOE & MICHAEL ILSLEY MEMORIAL CUP
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 6 $2,000 NSW TROTTERS DERBY
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 7 $2,000 TROTTERS C’SHIP FINAL
EX GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $13,461 SOUTHERN CROSS (3YO F) (REPECHAGE 1)
QD ALBION PARK (BT) - $19,922 RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 CANNINGTON (PG) 4 $1,000 WA DERBY FINAL

 

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