Massive day of racing! 10 races and big fields on the back of races Wednesday-Thursday so let’s get straight into it.
RAIL 7m – Weather Fine- Track GOOD 4.
*Feel free to share with racing mates and preview final after 9am Saturday*
FREE NEWSLETTER SIGNUP BELOW:
https://forms.aweber.com/form/20/496724620.htm
Race 1:
Don’t like the race. Too many queries for me. PLYMOUTH ROAD come off a few duck eggs but kept kicking to win at odds last start. Lots of the locals are just limited and found their spot. Thought OAKFIELD MONACH can run well but thought he might have found something easier, better for this run?
*Pass
****************************************************
Race 2:
No confidence again because there is NO speed at all here. No leaders! That makes it hard to bet, who changes tactics and who makes an early move?
The obvious would be THE CHAIRMAN as leader, if forced I’d have him on top at the $8 but not betting myself.
******************************************************
Race 3:
Feel the on speed runners will be suited here.
IMPASSE can be positive and find a spot in the first three pairs. his only bad run was on the very wet track last start, must be forgiving of that and although i’d rather him at 1400m he should be able to get a good run in transit and he is still an improving horse.
Really like the form of the race BASTIA comes out of, the quinella there White Boots and Harmatten are nice horses and you can make a case he should have won the race but had to be checked off their heels the last 150m. He did have a long break but rock hard fit after the few runs back and will appreciate the dry ground
$34 about LOTA CREEK GOLD could be overs too, better for recent racing, takes a claim and pushes forward. Also feel $21 a fair price LE MATTAN, he is going particularly well and used up too early last time, his issue is the gate.
No knock on the fav SHOGUN SUN, he draws a gate, decent weight and can win, just feel he’s under the odds.
On Top: 5-IMPASSE $6
Roughie: 6-LOTA CREEK GOLD $34, 12-SHOGUN SUN
*****************************************************
Race 4:
You can make a case for about 10 of the 15 runners here and a blowout wouldn’t surprise.
The interesting runner is MAHIS ANGEL so watch the money very closely. Very consistent in Melb around the bm64-70 grade and that’s more than good enough to measure up.
Thought the value might be CHIKORITA. Big step up for him and would not usually find a horse up in grade like this but he’s just looked very good in trials and in his maiden win last prep. Fradd was very lucky to get away with the ride on him last start, after missing the start he climbed their backs the whole race, if Fradd railed he would have got a run the fence but when another rolled back inside he decided to go over heels but still stayed behind horses instead of getting to the outside?? Very ordinary steer and he can improve sharply, he will need to in this grade but at $18 I’ll have a dabble.
Roughie: 12-CHIKORITA $18
Watch money: 2-MAHIS ANGEL $4.60
************************************************************
Race 5:
Really good race this, just a shame we can only run 12 from this ordinary starting point.
Not sure what to make of YITAI SYNERGY, she trialled like a bomb before drifting in the market on debut and running poorly. Has trialled brilliantly twice again this prep and looks to hold the fence and get an advantage here.
DEEP SEA looks a group horse in the making but can do a few things wrong. Haven’t seen a horse throw it’s head around like he did on debut and still win in a very long time. He will get back from the gate but with a bit of luck on the corner he will track up behind them and let down late.
DUBIOUS is a very good colt but the query is he’s been up for a MM prep and then a Slipper prep, how long can he keep going? GARIBALDI is one of the most promising 2yr olds in QLD and although beaten in Sydney it might have come a bit soon and Gollan made the right call to come straight home as our carnival was going to give him that time to mature.
*Happy enough to back DEEP SEA with all the speed in this race.
On Top: 5-DEEP SEA $4.20
Hardest To Beat: 2-GARIBALDI, 11-YITAI SYNERGY,
***************************************************
Race 6:
Had TOTALLY CHARMED on top at good odds last start, he ran well but I can’t believe he is the early fav here, not for me. (Wish they didn’t scratch, was happy to take him on)
FRANCISCA just keeps drawing wide, would have liked to see her at a mile but 3 weeks between runs and back to EF is perfect. She has been planted three wide most runs this prep and had no luck at all. The issue is that might happen again here but with cover she is the one to beat.
ANGEL DANE has really improved this time in work. She’s in an astute stable and could be the value here. Should have won on Weetwood day when checked multiple times in the straight and didn’t get a crack at them at all. Can sit midfield here and the big EF track should be ideal.
ALL PLUCK $13 and CRUZE next best. ALL PLUCK didn’t have a lot of luck last start but gets a long way back again here. CRUZE has been poor and not lived up to what I’d thought he’d be but did win an ordinary race at the coast last start when rolling forward, like the booking of Stewart and expecting him to be aggressive early.
*Backing ANGEL DANE and making FRANCISCA a winning result also.
Value: 17-ANGEL DANE $12
Hardest To beat: 15-FRANCISCA $5, 2-ALL PLUCK $13, 10-CRUZE
*************************************************************
Race 7:
INTRINSIC was very good fresh but last start had to go back from the bad gate, she ran the 2nd fastest L200m of the race and the run was a lot better than it reads on paper.
HAPPY HOOVES can’t go any better than he is, the 1400m EF sees him out as we witnessed last start, he loomed, went past them and peaked at the 50m, he did use some pennies from the 1000-600m and that might have taken it’s toll. From the better gate they can save him up for the last shot at the leaders and is a winning hope.
NEW HORIZONS has gone from a pretty ordinary horse to a pretty handy horse in a prep. He is fitter for the two runs back and has the speed to sit in the first 4-5 here and get the perfect run in transit. Would love this to be 1300m but with that soft run should be able to give a kick and be hard to run down.
Best roughie may be CONSTANTINE $34, just ok fresh but this sets up alright.
*Not much between them here.
On Top: 12-NEW HORIZONS $4.80
Hardest To Beat: 6-HAPPY HOOVES, 16-INTRINSIC
*****************************************************************
Race 8:
Weights and measure says GEM SONG should be winning. He’s well above average, he comes out of a race that should be a very good form guide (including Millard Reaction) and he spotted them all weight. Only had the one run at a mile and beaten and was 2nd (listed race). Just looks the winner and biggest danger is a bad ride or luck. Opened $2 but no value at the price now.
2,3,4,12,15 others to consider in exotics.
On Top: 1-GEM SONG
***************************************************************
Race 9:
Not keen the $1.60 about REDZEL but not sure what beats him. He was well beaten in the TJ but did finish alongside Trapeze Artist and other very good horses. This is very suitable and he’s the horse to beat and is the only genuine G1 horse in the field, the price just seems wrong.
JONKER has promised a bit without really delivering on the big stage. Lloyd will get the best out of him and i’d love to see him grab the back of REDZEL early and take a sit on him instead of trying to lead. He was good behind a potential star last start.
WINTER BRIDE is flying at present, she run very quick time in the Wenona and then very good behind White Moss at G2 level last start, that form is good and she deserves her crack at this. Will sit in the 3rd pair settling but can be strong late.
*Hard to split them.
Numbers: 1-7-6
***************************************************************
Race 10:
Some sort of race this! Sure to be a great form race over the next month or so and multiple winners will come from it.
Surprised CAPITAL CONNECTION is fav here, yes has the gate and Lloyd and even has race fitness on his side, I just don’t think he’s as good as a few of these and looks a false fav (to me anyway)
Not much between CADOGAN and CHAPTER AND VERSE, they were both incredibly good going through the grades last prep. CADOGAN won 3 of 6 last prep and finished off in the MM Open where he was 3 wide the trip and only beaten 1.3L by Redouble. Loved the recent trial and should be ready to go as he needs to be winning to make some of the better races. Similar story for CHAPTER AND VERSE, he started last prep with a huge win over 1000m (CL3) and finished the prep with a win in the Millions qtis race, he will be strong late.
TOKORIKI LAD has form around CAV and was 2nd in the qtis race Millions day. If the speed is good he can surprise a few here, he will enjoy the big track more than any other horse in the race.
FREDDIE FOX TROT races on speed and can negate the gate quickly. He has the 59kg but comes out of a Listed race and the Tyzone form is very good. He was on the worst part of the track there, he was on speed in a fast run race and still the 2nd fastest L200m of the race. He sits in front of the main dangers and is the one they all have to run down.
THE FIRE TRAP is a lot better than a $23 chance, recent trial was good and gets the light weight.
*Best race of the day. Slight lean to FREDDIE FOX TROT but keen to see where the money goes on raceday, that will be the best guide as to how much work some of these fresh horses have done*
On Top: 3-FREDDIE FOX TROT $7
Hardest To Beat: 1-CADOGAN, 11-CHAPTER AND VERSE, 13-TOKORIKI LAD
****************************************************************
GIBBOS BEST:
*Not sure about a best, don’t mind the card
****************************************************************
‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:
Rc 10. FREDDIE FOX TROT
