Easter ‘The Punt’ preview

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‘THE PUNT’ section will stay in Brisbane again this week. I tossed up doing a Sydney preview but the simple fact is looking at the fields I feel I can find more winners in Brisbane this week with hopefully a dead track to work with.

TRACK- EAGLE FARM

RAIL: +3

SURFACE- (I have done this form on a DEAD track, so if the heavens open tread warily) Check in Saturday morning around 9am for all updated selections.

Let’s get down to business!

 

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS: (Plenty this week!!)blackbook

March 30
CHATEAU MARGAUX CAULFIELD R1 No.4 (1700m) : Winnable race.
JET AWAY  CAULFIELD R7 No.2 (2000m) : Can win again.
MEMORABLE MOMENT EAGLE FARM R3 No.1 (1200m) : Hard to beat fav but will run well.
TIME TO PLUNDER EAGLE FARM R3 No.6 (1200m) : Same comment as above.
BLACK MAGIC EAGLE FARM R4 No.5 (1200m) : Very open race.
DIENEKES EAGLE FARM R6 No.3 (1400m) : On Top selection.
SIR KNOX EAGLE FARM R8 No.6 (1500m) : My best e/w in Brissy.
KENTAUR EAGLE FARM R8 No.8 (1500m) : May be looking for further.
LIMES ROSEHILL R1 No.7 (1200m) : Very very tough race.
JULIENAS  ROSEHILL R2 No.1 (2400m) : Big jump in trip? Will strip fitter though.
MISS STELLABELLE ROSEHILL R9 No.2 (1200m) : Good chance in open race.
ARINOSA ROSEHILL R9 No.6 (1200m) : Same comment as above.

 

+++Some running Monday

April 01
TRANSPORTER EAGLE FARM R4 No.4 (1826m) :
THAT’S KARMA EAGLE FARM R5 No.10 (1600m) :
IT’S ON THE POCKET EAGLE FARM R8 No.10 (1200m)
WRITTEN ABOVE ALL EAGLE FARM R8 No.12 (1200m) :

 

*Prices mentioned are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

Matt Dunn Racingtopline

 

 

 

 

Race 1:

No doubt OCTANE FLYER has the runs on the board but does have a good horses weight. Ran very well behind a horse who will be fancied in the Golden Slipper last start. Simply too hard to tip away from.

VOODOO BLUE MAGIC, NUDE SECRETS (will enjoy 1400m), GIVE IT AWAY and NAVELINA are the horses I will be looking at for trifecta’s etc.

*More than happy to kick the day off with a trifecta.

On Top: 1- OCTANE FLYER

Trifecta:  1—2,3,10,12 – 2,3,10,12

 

 

Race 2:

Staying races in Brisbane- No thanks.. Not until we find a few consistent ones…

 

 

Race 3:

Well I can’t possibly tell you to back THE WHITE HOPE at $1.70, but I can’t steer you another way either. He is an outstanding prospect looking at bigger and better races than this. He does have to still prove a point against better opposition but this is a great starting point for him.

MEMORABLE MOMENT seems value in early markets and should be one of the horses trailing the fav in the run. 59kg does make it tough.

TAIL AND ALL raced extremely well last prep and has trialled well leading into this. Browne takes the ride and if it progresses again this preparation it can run very well here.

TIME TO PLUNDER the best of the rest and I’m not sure what to make of NOOGOORA BURR who mixes his form horribly..

*Another good race to try your luck with exotics

Trifecta:  3—1,5,6 – 1,5,6

 

 

Race 4:

Really good little race. $5 the shortest quote so a great betting race.

GATINEAU RIVER, OFF AND LAUGHING, TOP OF THE ROCK and FLINDERS CITY should be the first 4 in the running.

Very hard to split a few of these but the Patinack team are firing at present and that has steered me into OFF AND LAUGHING. She has a good 1st up record and last prep finished 4th behind Didntcostalot fresh which is good form for this. If it pushes forward as expected that may make things a bit tougher for TOP OF THE ROCK who is drawn on the gate outside who will also push forward. It has been in good form also and will be a player with some luck early.

I think ALCANCIA should have won last but buck-jumped at the start, from there she went around the field on the corner and made a stack of ground. The run was super and you are probably getting a better price than you should because she was beaten nearly 3L.

FLYING JET and BELLANTINA are both very good horses. If they win it would not surprise but the 59kg is the query I have against a decent bunch.

BLACK MAGIC looked good winning last start and I rekon peaks here. She will probably go back but can rattle late.

GALLINARI a genuine chance and real improver.

 

On Top: 4- OFF AND LAUGHING

Hardest To Beat: 9- ALCANCIA, 5- BLACK MAGIC

 

 

Race 5:

It’s always nice to find value in the first leg of a quaddie but I can’t here.

I have a lot of time for I GET AROUND and I simply think he will run them off their legs. 1st up last time he ran second at Moonee Valley only beaten a head in a very good race where he beat a horse like Kulgrinda home. This looks the perfect race and he will be bloody hard to run down.

I think if you are looking for anything to run him down the class of EMMALENE and GDAY OLD MATE are the two that could do it. EMMALENE has trialled ok and should hit the line well, while GDAY OLD MATE gets a nice trail on the fence and every chance.

Outside of them PURE PURRFECTION looks promising but I was very disappointed with her last run and this looks harder, and JOPA who goes good 2nd up and the speed will help here.

On Top: 3- I GET AROUND

Others:   1- GDAY OLD MATE, 6- EMMALENE

 

 

Race 6:

The market is pretty right here.

DIENEKES is ready to win. $4.40 on Tatts and I can take that e/w and be more than happy. He will either lead or sit outside the lead and be hard to run down. With just 53kg after the claim he will boot on the corner and play ‘catch me if you can’.

The nsw visitor FULL BLAST will probably stalk Dienekes and peal of his back to prove the main danger. It is more of a solid grinding horse and just lacks a real sharp sprint. In saying that, not many of these have and I expect FULL BLAST to be the hardest to beat.

KING LUDWIG the value at $10 and should be thrown in quaddies. He looks a difficult horse to ride and that can hold him back at times. A good gate and being able to sit closer is a big plus.

BUSY DOIN NOTHIN can fall into first 4’s at $26. TRAGEDY is better than he has been showing.

EMOTICON would clean them up at his best but we have not seen that for a while. Not sure what to make of his Toowoomba win..

 

On Top: 3- DIENEKES e/w

 

 

Race 7:

What a great betting race! The weather is the key here. METALLURGICAL does not want the track any worse than Dead, but if it happens to stick to that rating I’m keen to have something on at the $17 on Tatts. He has had 4 starts this track/trip and hasn’t finished worse than 2nd. His fresh run last prep he was only beaten under 3L in a G2 at Flemington. He is in here on the minimum and trialled really well lately.

STEEL ZIP exploded fresh last prep and gets a similar run here as he did that day.

RIVER LAD flying for Nat McCall and no reason he can’t win again. SIGNIFIED comes out of that race and is 3rd up and rock hard fit now.

ADEBISI was nominated for the G1 in Sydney but chose to run here. Has 59.5kg but will push forward and be hard to run down. The last 50m is the question..

ALLTHERIGHTMOVES returned to her best form 1st up and gee I liked the win. I think she can go on with it and expect her to be finishing very hard late.

*Happy to look for value here.

 

On Top: 12- METALLURGICAL  @ $17

Others: 11- ALLTHERIGHTMOVES, 2-STEEL ZIP, 5- TOO MANY REDS

 

 

Race 8:

Many were waxing lyrical about Discreet winning a few weeks back but I thought SIR KNOX should just about have rolled her. He handles all conditions and although all these 3 year old races are tough and very even, but Hellyer can sit behind the pace, pullout and balance this bloke up in the long straight and hopefully run over them. He looks a great way to finish the day e/w around the $5-6.

LITTLE LONG HORN, ACCIDENTAL, ITCHINTOWIN and HYPOTHESIS all come through the GC race and finished on top of each other…

OFFENSE may be the main danger to our top selection and just has to overcome the awkward gate to be in the finish.

HOLEY TOLEDO beat some good older horses last start and only has 56kg after the claim. That lines up well.

 

On Top: 6- SIR KNOX e/w

 

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS: Pretty keen on the Brissy bets, and have mentioned a couple to consider in SYD

Brisbane Race 5 No.3 I GET AROUND

Brisbane Race 8 No.6 SIR KNOX

This weeks ‘LONGSHOT’ – Race 7 No.12 METALLURGICAL  @ $17

$50

*Others at value interstate worth some thought:

Sydney Race 4 No.6 DIAMOND OASIS e/w (around $6)

Sydney Race 3 No.5 THUMP (The $11 just looks value off her last run)

 

 

 

 

BRISBANE QUADDIE  (Going very skinny and running with the best bets)

3 —– 1,3,6,10,12,13 —– 3,4,5,10,11,12 —– 6                      $36 = 100%

 

 

SYDNEY QUADDIE

2 —- 2,3,5,8,9,15 —– 1,2,9,11,12,14 —– 2,3,5,6,7,8

 

 

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

Sydney Race 1 No.14 SHE’S A FOX

Sydney Race 3 No.1 ASSAIL

 

****I just want to mention the article I did through the week. It is a thank-you to all you guys and girls. Have a quick read if you get a chance. Thanks again!

http://www.brissyraces.com.au/a-big-thankyou-to-all-of-you/

 

 

THIS WEEKS TATSBET JACKPOTS ARE:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 TattsBet

for

Saturday, 30 March 2013


POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ROSEHILL (SR)

7

$250,000

THE GALAXY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

BATHURST (ST)

4

$2,000

BATHURST GOLD BRACELET FINAL

F4

BATHURST (ST)

5

$2,000

BATHURST GOLD TIARA FINAL

F4

BATHURST (ST)

6

$2,000

BATHURST GOLD CHALICE FINAL

F4

BATHURST (ST)

7

$2,000

BATHURST GOLD CROWN FINAL

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$25,000

M2 TO M3

EX

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$12,512

GRADUATION C’SHIP (1ST SEMI-FINAL)

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

WENTWORTH PARK (SG)

5

$1,000

THE AMBROSOLI

F4

WENTWORTH PARK (SG)

6

$1,000

THE ASSOCIATION CUP FINAL

F4

WENTWORTH PARK (SG)

8

$1,000

GOLDEN EASTER EGG FINAL

F4

CANNINGTON (PG)

5

$1,000

PUPPY CLASSIC FINAL

 

 

Happy Easter to all and please drive safe if you are away on holidays. Good luck on ‘The Punt’.

*If possible I will put up a mini PUNT section on Monday.

 

Check in again soon!