Flemington Saturday

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Don’t say I don’t do anything for you, flat out like a lizard drinking but have taken a look at Flemington. We haven’t looked away from Brisbane in a long time, however with all the rain around and chance of heavy tracks in QLD here is a quick look at a couple of other races I don’t mind.

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Flemington Race 3:

Think the visitors can dominate this. Slight lean to ECKSTEIN in front of CRACK ME UP but feel they are both well placed. Many will look at the 60kg CRACK ME UP has but he is a big beast of a thing who comes out of G1 formlines and drops to Listed level. He beat Care To Think 5 runs back and was only beaten 4.5L by Winx, fair form for a Listed race. His return in the Bobby Lewis was good, condition gave way late but he has a far better 2nd up record so sure to improve sharply. ECKSTEIN was touted as a Kosi hope but they didn’t like the % split and feel they have made the right call, they come to 1400m on a big track that suits and likely to get some black type. Been a long time between wins but she has been consistently running well in Group races and has been G1 placed so this is also a big drop in grade and ready to show best 3rd run back from a spell. They will both be strong late, I’ve backed ECKSTEIN and covered my bet with CRACK ME UP, but many might just play ECKSTEIN ew.

On Top: 6-ECKSTEIN $5.50

Hardest To Beat:  1-CRACK ME UP

 

Ladd

 

Flemington Race 6:

Not as keen on this race just feel PERAST is a fair price around the $8 mark. Simple fact is he just has to be as good as he was in Brisbane and he will be right in the finish here. He won the G3 Fred Best last prep and finished that prep off with a 5th in the G1 Stradbroke. Probably does like the edge off the track but still effective on top of the ground. Good trials and an a very even race I’ve had a small bet at the price.

On Top: 3-PERAST $8

 

 

Flemington Race 7:

AVILIUS is the horse on everyone’s lips and it’s easy to see why. He hasn’t won by big spaces but just picks them up so easily with that turn of foot. He might have 58.5kg but with even luck in running I’d expect him to win here and possibly go to Melbourne Cup favourite.

On Top: 1-AVILIUS  $2.10

 

Neds 250 300

 

 

Flemington Race 8:

One of the best races of the day and excited to see what VERRY ELLEEGANT can produce. The kiwi filly who is a bit green but has any amount of talent. She is still learning the game and the inside gate might not be the best draw for her but she looks a topliner  in the making. Here is her last win in NZ. https://loveracing.nz/RaceInfoSearch.aspx?q=verry%20elleegant&s=Current&g=All&r=undefined&t=Name#horse

Don’t think she has it her own way and like a few at odds for exotics.

ARISTIA bumped into Tavisan and was good at the Valley before coming from last in the Tranquil Star behind Smart Melody and running the best last 200m of the race.

DARK CONFIDANT comes off a maiden win but her last couple have been slow run affairs where she has still been best late. Out in trip, bigger track and more pressure means she is over the odds at $18 IMO.

PIERRO BELLE $19 is in the McEvoy camp and on the back up from 1200m last week when 5th at G3 level behind Meryl. Come from the back and run the fastest 600-400m and 200m-home splits of the race. Got breeding on her side and runs well here.

On Top: 15-VERRY ELLEEGANT $4

Hardest To Beat: 13-PIERRO BELLE $19,   9-DARK CONFIDANT $18,  4-ARISTIA

 

 

Race 9: 

Feel BELLA MARTINI, INVINCIBELLA and SAVATIANO are the three mares in the best form and should fight this out. Of the three I lean to INVINCIBELLA, she has a bit of a sticky gate and likely to go back but has Hugh on board which is an obvious advantage. She took all before her in QLD over the winter and has carried that form into the spring by winning the G2 Sheraco and then unlucky 4th in the G2 Golden Pendant. She has run the fastest or 2nd fastest last 200m split in her last four races, all at G1 or G2 level. With a fair tempo she will get time to balance up and expecting her to be very hard to beat.

BELLA MARTINI has been excellent her last two and throughout her career. She can race on speed like last start or settle back and finish off as we witnessed the start before.

SAVATIANO worked through the grades last prep, returned this prep with a Listed win before being caught wide the entire in the G3 Tibbie and running a brave 2nd. Will roll forward from gate 7 and should find a spot in the first four settling. Will give a kick and be the one they all have to run down.

On Top: 3-INVINCIBELLA $5

Hardest To Beat: 9-SAVATIANO,  5-BELLA MARTINI

 


NEDS Fat Odds sq