Gold Coast ‘On the Punt’ 6/1

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Another big weekend and we head to the GOLD COAST as a warm up for the massive MAGIC MILLIONS day next week.

**Always remember to check in after 9am Saturdays for final preview*

 

You can hear a quick chat I’ll have with Steve Hewlett on RadioTab around 7:40am Qld time Saturday.

 

pineapple

Trying a few different things form wise and this may not hit the stands until Friday so please understand I still do my best to get it up Thursday but results are more important than the time it goes up.

 

*As always feel free to send to mates via Link/Text/Email and lets see how many friends we can get on board!

 

BLACKBOOK:

Pretty decent run for the blackbookers and hoping we can continue that on this weekend.

 

Just the three this weekend:

Sunlight - Sat Jan 6 Gold Coast R2


Mighty Like - Sat Jan 6 Gold Coast R8


Showus Ya Diamonds - Sun Jan 7 Sunshine Coast R3

 

**As I start to type this the track is a HEAVY 10- However I’ve done the form on a SOFT 5-6 range with Hot weather predicted Thursday-Saturday.

 

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Weekend bounty

 

 

Race 1:

This shapes as a pretty good start to the day with a competitive sprint over the 900m dash!

A few off these come out of the Raido race which might be an ok guide for this as they run it fast that day.

CRUSHER led them up on a hot tempo and although beaten 4L on that occasion the effort was ok considering the speed he went early. Can improve.

I felt the clear best of the on pacers was INVINCIBLE HEART who was posted 4 wide the entire and went to the front on the point of the turn to be a sitting shot for the swoopers. Fought really well and from gate 4 this time Grylls can park behind the speed and wait another 100m before letting her rip.

INITIALIZE at her best would simply WIN this. However, fresh she was ok when not placed great. Then got to a very winnable race and was rolled at $1.50. Problem here is she has gate 12 and would love to be right on speed. There is a chance she is fitter from racing and class might get her home no matter what. Got to take on trust a bit though.

KNOTTED must be respected on the last run behind Downtown Strutter this track/trip. Should be in it for a long way.

*Think INITIALIZE has the class to win, as does CRUSHER but I feel the ‘safest’ way is INVINCIBLE HEART who gets a lot more favours than her brave run fresh.

On Top:  6-INVINCIBLE HEART $3.70

Hardest To beat:  11-CRUSHER,  4-KNOTTED

 

boomracing

 

Race 2:

Well even with the weight swings against her SUNLIGHT should be winning this. I doubt they will burn to the front as they did last time. On that occasion they had to win to get a spot so they made a moral of her. With the millions next week I’d be very surprised if she doesn’t sit right on the leaders backs and not let go until about the 200m.

DRAM OF DELAGO should only improve off the debut. Also gets a gun run, possibly one out, one back.

Big ride this for Grylls on BOOM GIRL to get a start in the MM field and she hasn’t been gifted with a gate. Plan may be to go back and give her last crack at them. The debut run was excellent when run down late by Katy’s Daughter.

PAQUIRRI was all over the shop and only flattened out late but there was plenty to like about the effort. Walker couldn’t get in at any point and then put the horse into the race before the corner and had every right to be run down. I’d be going back again and being a little more patient over the 1100m and I’m sure he attacks the line again.

What to make of TERMINOLOGY? Big raps off the sensational trial, missed start at Wyong and race was over. You probably just have to put a line through it and maybe they put handlebars down early and she improves out of sight. A win wouldn’t surprise but I won’t take $3 to find out.

*Might play a little first 4 here but nothing much.

First 4 :  2– 4,5 – 4,5,6,9 – 4,5,6,9

(typo here, should have been 2 standout)

 

 

Race 3:

Was in the corner of ALL TOO HUIYING last start and he was brave but the rock hard fit and improving BOOM BOOM EPIC got him down. There is a 1kg swing at the weights in his favour this time but the main advantage should be sharp improvement in fitness levels. Very little between the two runners and they should again sit 1,2 and be the ones the rest have to run down.

WEEKEND SAGA is another improving type but hard to see her turning the tables.

Lloyd goes on MISHANI BULLITT so must be respected and that horse is running well without winning recently.

Also LOOKS LIKE ELVIS was strong late behind CRUZ who i like later in the day. Has to be a hope here but don’t like the fact Lloyd is off the horse.

*Might have something ALL TOO HUIYING at the $3 as he should be just about spot on with the MM his main aim next week.

On Top: 1-ALL TOO HUIYING $3

Hardest To Beat: 3-BOOM BOOM EPIC,  2-MISHANI BULLITT, 4-WEEKEND SAGA, 6-LOOKS LIKE ELVIS

 

 

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Race 4:

Most people reading will know I am not a fan of these staying races.

A few of these are going up in grade and hoping its ‘their turn.’

Even with a month between runs it looks a decent race for THE RUMOUR FILE. Three back he beat Karakabeel before running 2nd to Kirini (and running the fastest last 400m of the race) before then settling last in a very slowly run race where he was beaten by the stablemate My Guilliano. That all lines up well from benchmark 90 races whereas a few of these are jumping from 75 grade. He won off a 28 day fresh 3 back and placed off a 28 day freshen so shouldn’t be an issue with 35 days between runs this far into a prep.

RULING DYNASTY hasn’t won for a long time but does come out of the Feltre race and that’s good form for this. Actually got home the last 200m the same sectional as Feltre that day which was the best of the race. At $26 on NEDS he’s clearly the best value in whats not a great race.

I felt ENDLESS DAYS was going ok before the last run so might need to be taken on trust.

EXPLOSIVE ONE is up to these on her day but she is another who was ok last time but I expected a better run. FIRST STIMULUS was better than her on that occasion and no reason it won’t run right through the line again here.

EXPERTEA has improved this prep and got an easy lead last time to win easily. Will again push forward here and did break maiden status by way of a 5L win over this trip to finish last prep.

*Don’t really like the race but I’d be happy to have something on THE RUMOUR FILE at $4 and also RULING DYNASTY $26

On Top:  3-THE RUMOUR FILE $4  ++  1-RULING DYNASTY $26

Hardest To Beat:  10-EXPERTEA,  11-FIRST STIMULUS

 

 

Race 5:

Even with the scratchings there should be good speed here and everyone should get their chance to win.

No jock on BELLA OCHI as I am writing, I’m assuming not running but will wait to hear more. Obvious chance if runs but I’ll probably bet away from her anyway.

Think the $7 looks a fair price to back COLOSSIMO e/w here. Yes she’s been up longer than grandad on his Viagra but she continues to run well and it took a few smarts one to beat her home last time (Whypeeo,Pierata, Shogun Sun) but she beat home some pretty handy ones also. Before that she was in a slow run race and ripped off clearly the fastest section between the 400-200m and did well to finish as close as she did. Not one of my favs but looks well placed in this.

The other main hope in my eyes is SUSSURI who was brave to win fresh beating BAT A KAT on the slow 7 (they meet at equal weights here) and then she sat in behind the speed at the GC, got a tiny momentum stopper at the top of the straight but hit the line well enough behind the swoopers. She can run well.

BAT A KAT is no star but trys and gets Lloyd on which helps (he has won on the horse). Gets a gun run and every chance.

*I’m more than happy to back COLOSSIMO at the $7 and feel SUSSURI is the main danger, horses like DREAM KISSES, WUDANG BLADE etc can all run into the money off good recent efforts.

On Top: 3-COLOSSIMO $7 e/w

Hardest To Beat: 13-SURSURRI

Others: 5-DREAM KISSES, 6-BAT A KAT, 1-WUDANG BLADE

 

 

Race 6:

Not a lot of speed horses at all here.

Without that speed you’d think PLUCKY GIRL from (13) would be positive and PERFECT DARE (14) would try to follow her across. CRUZ should land in the first 5 without spending a penny.

PERFECT DARE hadn’t had much go right but last start it all fell into place and he was able to lead, kick and win. Only had the one start this track/trip and he was beaten a lip MM day last year, that will be his target again next week but can trouble these before that.

CRUZ scratches from an earlier race and I think this looks a great race to test him against a few of the older horses. He gets gate 1 and as long as that’s not inferior ground (can be when wet) he can find a lovely spot and be the one out and chasing. Only comes out of a 3yr old BM65 last time but 4.4L off Pierata before that, is in very good hands and just looks to have a touch of class. He will end up in better races than this.

Gee I looked over and over trying to find a way to come up with COURTZA KING as his best would just about win it but his last couple haven’t been good. The fact so many are making ground on him late says he’s not in his best form. Will take a bit of Gollan gold to turn him around!

DOUBT DEFYING and DESMONDS PRIDE maybe next best but not real keen on either as winning hopes.

*Thinking CRUZ has the upside and PERFECT DARE the class.

On Top: 16-CRUZ $4.80

Hardest To beat: 4-PERFECT DARE $4.20

 

 

Race 7:

Gets a bit harder here.

Have COURTS STAR setting a good tempo with blinkers back on, while AQUA VITE, SLYDINI, COURAGOUS ROCK and a few others want to be just off speed.

You have to go a long way back to find CANTBUYBETTER on the back up but he has won before doing it. He was slaughtered by J.Kah last week (I’m a fan but it was a horrible steer putting him that hard on speed when he could have found a great spot in running). Anyway, that tough run, add 4kg and jump to 1800 makes it extremely tough. The run last week was clearly the best of the on pacers, it was a great effort to finish so close. If he handles the tough run he can win here.

B.J.Smith has 3 winners from the last 8 he has saddled and FELTRE found form right before the MM day last start. Loves this track (3 starts a win and two 2nds. Distance 4 starts for a win and placing). Good tempo suited him last time out but he was strong through the line and you’d think only better for the run. Goes up 1kg but not too concerning on the last win.

DON’T TELL MAMA had been pretty avg her few runs back but was very good late here behind FELTRE with the fastest last 6-4-200m sectionals of the race. I’d like to see her do it again as she’s been costly this time in but maybe she just needed the racing and get out in trip?

AQUA VITE, SLYDINI and MYSTICAL RENEGADE ran the trifecta on a bias track on the 16th but AQUA VITE has since run well behind FELTRE.

*This track/trip is FELTRE’s bread and butter so sticking with him off the dominant last start win. CANTBUYBETTER looks the main danger

On Top:  2-FELTRE

Hardest To Beat:  1-CANTBUYBETTER

 

 

 

Race 8:

A couple of sensational trailers here and another that went pretty good also.

MIGHTY LIKE $10 and FLAMBOYER $5 both went like rockets at recent trials. FLAMBOYER up on speed and kept running while MIGHTY LIKE was off speed and gobbled them up very quickly!

We mentioned the Schweida stable since July have only struck at 5% (3 from 52) horses 1st up, but still backed Oink before his flop the other week. The stats don’t give you much confidence but off the trial I have to have a small bet and make it my only play in a race I’m not keen to spend much on.

FLAMBOYER had the heavies on but gapped them in the recent trial. Looked very good there and he’s won better races than this. Start 55 but can run well.

ZIN ZAN EDDIE also won a recent  trial in the heavies and if the sting is out it may well help his case, not the worst.

QUATRONIC will be QUATRONIC, can win at big odds or get beaten a long way.

Thought SIEGFRIED was good enough fresh in a G3. Won or placed in 4 of 6 second up, Lloyd goes back on and should get a good run in transit a few pairs back. Fair price the $6.50 and he’s the hardest to beat for mine.

*Not a great event. Maybe small bets MIGHTY LIKE and SIEGFRIED for me.

On Top:  1-SIEGFRIED  $6.50  ++  4-MIGHTY LIKE $10

 

 

Race 9:

Will update this closer to race day.

At first glance I can understand why NILETTE is fav but $2.50 is bloody short!

LIVE FAST may be some value at $12.

*To be updated.

Sunday winner bonus

 

GIBBOS BEST:

Not overly keen but these are my main bets:

Race 1 No.6- INVINCIBLE HEART $3.50

Race 6 No.16- CRUZE $4.80

Best e/w

Race 5 No.3-COLOSSIMO $7

The ‘Hail Mary’

Race 4 No.1-RULING DYNASTY $26

 

THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Sydney Race 9 No.3-LEVEL EIGHT $6

 

STEVE HEWLETTS BEST:

Race 1- INVINCIBLE HEART

Race 3- ALL TOO HUIYING

SHANE CIURLEOS BEST:

 

 

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