Gold Coast “The Punt’ preview

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The racing features turn to the QLD carnival this weekend and there are some cracking fields to go over. Unfortunately the track should be rain affected and is even a chance of Heavy if the predicted storm hits Friday.

It was a good day Wednesday and hopefully the blackbook followers that jumped on the site got Trump at a surprisingly nice price.

Some weeks ‘The Punt’ is full of confidence and races just seem easy to preview. This is NOT one of them weeks! Capacity fields + Tight track + wet track = Danger.. I don’t want to overstate it, but I will be looking for some value in the preview as there should be some big priced results.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

ROCKER GOLD COAST R3 No.4 (1200m)
UTILISM GOLD COAST R4 No.15 (1200m)
MOSSRIVER GOLD COAST R5 No.11 (1200m)
DUAL CHAMBER GOLD COAST R5 No.3 (1200m)
ALLTHERIGHTMOVES GOLD COAST R5 No.9 (1200m)
ROCKSAN GOLD COAST R6 No.11 (1800m)
PRETTY PINS  GOLD COAST R6 No.6 (1800m)
CARRY ME BLUEY GOLD COAST R7 No.10 (1300m)
FILLYDELPHIA GOLD COAST R7 No.5 (1300m)
EASY RUNNING GOLD COAST R9 No.1 (1200m)
BOUND TO BLUSH HAWKESBURY R7 No.10 (1400m)

 

Race 1: We start with one of the bets that should just win, but I don’t like kicking the day off with a shorty.. FRUEHLING opened at $2.60 on tatts is a half to Glass Harmonium and has been very impressive his first two runs/wins in Australia. The 2200m looks perfect and the Freedman stable is flying. He rises in class coming up from a 68 ratings race, but drops 5kg on his 3 ½ length win. VIKING HERO will probably give these a bit of a start but he is going as well as ever. He does have the 59kg on the wet track which may be an issue, but he can definitely win. ZA MAGIC is flying in these similar races over the last month or so. If we do get more rain he is a swimmer and can be hard to catch. SHAMARDASHING may have found his form after his last win? Hard to say yes, but just as hard to say no.

On Top: 11-FRUEHLING

Next Best: 4-ZA MAGIC, 1-VIKING HERO, 3-SHAMARDASHING

Trifecta: 11 – 1,3,4.

 

Race 2: Fair pace engaged here and most of the on-pacers are in form. TAFEER and MACHINATION push forward from decent gates and make OAK STREET (SCRATCHED) and THE FIFTHHOLE work hard to get the lead. How hard they work is the key to the race. If they can cross there is no doubt they are the best two. If it was dry I would lean THEFIFTHHOLE and if it got wet I would lean to OAK STREET. MACHINATION is big odds here and I give him a chance on a mud track if he camps on the leaders backs. The Patinack pair are both good horses who handle all tracks, but would like it wetter the better. TRISKELE and SIDE TO SIDE get great runs in the race and should be respected while SAVAGE RIVER will run an improved race and worth thought for wide trifecta’s.

*If Oak Street and Thefifthhole somehow dictate in front they can dominate. They may have to work and open the race up a little.

On Top: 2-THEFIFTHHOLE

 

Race 3: Toby Edmonds plays a big part here with three runners. I haven’t talked to him but would suggest the promising EMVOSS would be the best of them. He has really looked after this horse and I have no doubt he will reap the rewards of being patient this prep. He opened at $8.50 + $2.90 which is a nice price about a horse of his quality and I will be having something on e/w. ROCKER is the horse they all have to beat and he has the benefit of a run under his belt before he meets EMVOSS. He has never finished worse than 2nd at any of his 7 starts and he is by the all-conquering Fastnet Rock. He was $2.80 when Tatts opened the market and I think he will be closer to odds-on Saturday. I think they are the two winning chances and then I will be looking for trifecta horses as this may be one of the races you can have some confidence in. PATTIES MATE is a swimmer. DEMANDING MISS is also, plus has a great fresh record. ROSAGAZE will improve 2nd up which she is 2 from 2.

*Going with the value, but Fav will be hard to toss.

On Top: 4-ROCKER.

Trifecta: 4 — 3,5,6,11.

 

 

Race 4: Good quality race that I don’t want to get too involved in, so I want go into much detail. There are a lot of good horses, but the standouts for me are SIZZLING and HOSS AMOR (SCRATCHED). HOSS AMOR won really well in a good race on debut which is always a sign of a very good horse. She was ok in the millions and may well have come on this prep. I think SIZZLING is simply a star which puts him on top here. The only question with him is the fact he missed a gallop last week leading into this because of the rain, but he can still be too good.

On Top: 1-SIZZLING

 

 

 

Race 5: A really good edition of the Sillk Stocking and the Gold Coast club will be happy with the quality of mares engaged. SARAJI and MONTANA FLYER push forward and set a fair tempo. The up and comer is ALLTHERIGHTMOVES and I have her on top. She has been backed early and you don’t want to take skinny odds in this. She has won 6 from including one on a heavy track (although she didn’t seem herself on that track) She also drops 4.5kg for her narrow defeat to the classy Cape Kidnappers. DUAL CHAMBER is a big chance here and her run 1st up was a beauty! Her 2nd up form is 7 starts for 3-2-1. Again I’d rather it not be a bog, but she is very good. MOSSRIVER is well over the odds opening at $17 and is a realistic hope.  FUNTANTES ans MASCARERI who is a swimmer are the best of the rest.

On Top: 9-ALLTHERIGHTMOVES

Next Best: 3-DUAL CHAMBER, 11-MOSSRIVER

 

 

Race 6: NZ oaks winner runs in MISS ARTISTIC. She hasn’t raced in 7 weeks and will improve a lot out of this run, but don’t sell her short over the 1800m at set weights. HIDDEN JEWEL will get a few favours in front and that gives her a chance to run the 1800m out. There is a little query over the distance and we will know more about her after this run. ANGEL OF MERCY(SCRATCHED) a question on a wet track, but is close to the best horse in the race with form around some group 1 fillies. PRETTY PINS is another who will improve with the run under her belt, but she likes a wet track and a win wouldn’t surprise. ROCKSAN is a real improver but I am concerned about a wet track? ANGELUS is an interesting runner for Snowden and it only needs luck from gate 17 to figure. The horse I have on top is SCORPIO QUEEN for Waller. Last prep she grew a leg each run and this is a distance she will love. First up she ran very well behind Landing and Sacred Pins who will both probably win again at Hawkesbury to frank the form. She was around $17 when Tatts opened and I grabbed a piece of that. She is no good thing, but in an open race I think she is the one I like at the odds. *Worth noting Toby has scratched a few horses today but left ROCKSAN in this.

On Top: 10-SCORPIO QUEEN ew

Hardest To Beat: 2-MISS ARTISTIC, 4-HIDDEN JEWEL, 6-PRETTY PINS.

 

Race 7: Too many to go over them all so if I don’t mention your horse don’t worry too much. MID SUMMER MUSIC has to go on top. I’d be lying if I said gate 15 wasn’t some type of concern and they have said they won’t be up on pace. She has been Black Caviar, Atlantic Jewel and Foxwedge etc so this looks a far easier assignment. PHELAN READY hasn’t won for a couple of years, but he loves the coast track, loves a wet track and ran 4th in the Newmarket, so is in form. DURHAM TOWN is a Group horse in NZ and will run well. FILLYDELPHIA will like getting to a tougher 1300m and wet not a concern. CARRY ME BLUEY can sit midfield and I would be very surprised if he didn’t look the winner at some stage. TOP DROP was heavily backed in early markets last week so must be going very well. A couple of horses at big prices to consider for wide quaddies are DALZAR who returned well last run and particularly MEET GEORGE who loves the wet, is going well and is up to a race like this with conditions to suit.

**Wow, good luck.

On Top: 3-MID SUMMER MUSIC

Hardest To Beat: 10-CARRY ME BLUEY, 11-MEET GEORGE, 1-PHELAN READY

(it doesn’t end there!)

 

Race 8: The Hollindale! Massive spruik horse is MAWINGO. I wasn’t as taken with his 1st up win as others on first glance. He was catapulted into that race but he did run well. What I like about him is that he obviously has a lot of class and I’m guessing he will come on a lot from that run. On his overseas form it looks as though he should get through the ground and a big plus is that he should sit midfield or closer from a good gate and be in front of some of the other main chances. He looks pretty smart. If he happens to fail where do we look? FORETELLER is going particularly well and he is ready to win. The big problem for him is that he will go back and give a big start. This may not suit but look for him late and follow him. ‘The Prophet’ likes WALL STREET and the blinkers come off. He may push forward and could improve sharply back to WFA. SHEZ SINSATIONAL is exactly that and has a big race in her over the carnival. Not sure where they sit here but she can run well. SCENIC SHOT, TRIPLE HONOUR and LIGHTS OF HEAVEN chances to run into first 4’s.

On Top: 12-MAWINGO

Others: 9-FORETELLER, 13-SHEZ SINSATIONAL, 3-WALL STREET

 

Race 9: Again far too many to list! EASY RUNNING gets the run of the race and looks the safest bet. He handles all conditions and is fool proof. FLORENTINA has all the form around Streama and co. She is in this up to her ears! DOUBLE IMPACT and MORNING CAPTAIN are a couple I see as probably getting runs about where you want to be at this time of the day and can both run very well. DIDN’TCOSTALOT is going well, the question is the 1200m in a fast run race? KELBENJAR has a few bad manners which is a concern, but has wet form and is handy. PUNCH ON and EMMALENE are both great horses with horrible barriers. If you are able to make ground out wide they rocket to near top selections, but that is a big question. You will have to see how the track is playing. BIGGLES is topliner and set weights work out good for him. I am wary of the heavy though.

On Top: 1-EASY RUNNING ew

Hardest To Beat: 14-FLORENTINA, 13-EMMALENE, 10-KELBENJAR

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Gold Coast Race 1 no 11 FRUEHLING

Gold Coast Race 8 no 12 MAWINGO

Gold Coast Race 9 no 1 EASY RUNNING e/w

 

 

GOLD COAST: Quaddie Selections: *Happy to go wider for a smaller % at the tight coast track.

2,4,6,9,10,11 —- 1,3,5,10,11,12 —- 9,12,13 — 1,10,12,13,14

 HAWKESBURY Quaddie selections:

1,3,4,5,6,9 — 1,5,7 —– 4,6 —- 11

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s: (A couple at big odds this wkend)

Gold Coast Race 8 no 3 WALL STREET

Melbourne Race 7 no 12 DURNFORD

 

*****************Here are the early TATTSBET market movers.

GOLD COAST

4/2 Noogoora Blur $21 to $17

5/9 Alltherightmoves $5.0 to $3.6

8/10 Rundle $101 to $71

9/1 Easy Running $5.0 to $4.0

 

HAWKESBURY

8/11 Mental $2.6 to $2.45

 

FLEMINGTON

7/4 Soros $5.0 to $4.2

 

MORPHETTVILLE

7/3 Zabeelionaire $4.3 to $4.2

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 5 May 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

GOLD COAST (QR)

7

$86,047

PRIME MINISTER’S CUP

EX

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

7

$15,121

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

6

$2,000

APG FINAL (2YO C&G)

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$20,000

M1 ONLY

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$20,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$10,000

C3 TO C5

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

WENTWORTH PARK (SG)

8

$1,000

LADIES BRACELET FINAL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. You may have friends who would be interested in the site, so send them as link so they can check it out.

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo