Well the Grafton carnival has come around again! Although I love to focus on QLD racing, you have to love the country carnival in July.
I have been asked by a lot of members to try and provide a steer into some winners, so I have put together a preview for the punting members amongst us.
I have done some quick replays and as much form as I could cram to give the members a preview to each day- before scratchings etc. It is always a good carnival to follow money moves and I expect that to continue. The preview is by no means anywhere near as big as “The Punt” section on a Saturday, but hopefully as successful.
WEDNESDAY:
Race 1: SNIP IT FAST had run some good races in brissy and the GC before her last start when she was well beaten. It is worth noting she was reported to be lame after that, and if she gets back to that original form she is the one to beat. The main danger seems to be MAID OF FALVELON who has some good Bris city form too. WHIRLWIND may be the best of the southerners.
On Top: 6-SNIP IT FAST.
Next Best: 4-MAID OF FALVELON, 8-WHIRLWIND.
Race 2: ALCHIBA seems the obvious one here from the good gate, and with good form. Interesting to note CAJUN COURT had trialled well and was short in the market before it’s 1st up flop? Rodd goes on and I’d be watching the market with it. CANGAI MAN is another 1st up and showed some good signs on debut at Ipswich.
On Top: 1-ALCHIBA
Dangers: 13-CANGAI MAN, 3-CAJUN COURT
Race 3: Tough race! FLAMING CIRCLE has some decent Syd form and looks the obvious one. I just won’t be taking to short a price! LAMICHI is the one who may well step up to the mark. She is a nice mare up from Melb and has race in better races than this.. Keen to see what she opens up at, and again, watch the market with her. UNIVERSAL SOUND, KEVEJON and ZAFAAF can make up the other chances in the first 4.
Main chances: 2-FLAMING CIRCLE, 8-LAMICHI
Race 4: A race I will not be going big in… The top five in my eyes- In no particular order are 6,8,13,14,15. Any of those can win, and a couple may be close to double figure odds.
Race 5: RICH’N’UNHITCHED can push forward from the wide gate and sit near the lead. I’m loving the form behind the very smart Tomboy who looks like a good one. ROSANOV also comes off a decent run behind that horse. He was 1st up off a really long break that day and can improve sharply here. ROCKOVER TARGET for Joe Janiak has good Nth Rivers form.
On Top: 3-RICH’N’UNHITCHED
Next best: 4-ROSANOV, 5-ROCKOVER TARGET
Race 6: THE RAMORNIE:
I have to admit I love this race every year, but it has dropped off a bit this year and seems it may be run a little different. Usually it is a hectic pace and last horse standing wins (Usually THE JACKAL). It seems as though THE SIXTIES will cross and lead, and although a fair pace should be set, I don’t see it being helter skelter like most years. I can’t find a standout case for any of them, but have gone with the class of BLACK PIRAHNA. He gets in well with the weights, as he is a multiple group 1 winner. He may be able to sit midfield and if that’s the case he can run them down. Reports are JEREZANA may open up around $10, and if that’s the case she may be the value. In my mind the 1200m on a dry track is her niche’ and therefore I think she is right in this. TEMPLE OF BOOM would LOVE a drop of rain but won’t get it. He gets a lovely run and will look the winner at the 150m. Can he hang on? Usually I’d say no, but in this field he may.. MEET GEORGE and MOTSPUR both get great runs and every chance. HERE DE ANGELS can win but has cost me plenty-enough said! LIFEBOUY was great last start and is the best roughie. OLLIE VOLLIE has already been supported.
On Top: 1-BLACK PIRAHNA
Hardest to beat: 7-JERAZANA, 3-MOTSPUR, 4-TEMPLE OF BOOM.
Race 7: I really like this race and have it down to a few main chances. SNIP’N’DUCK ran in Listed and G3 races a couple of starts ago, and went very close. I’d be forgiving of his last run and he gets a great run in transit. EMVOSS is a real improver, and im thinking they will ride him quite which may suit as I see it a pretty fair clip in front. He will be coming hard late with SAVE YOURSELF who comes off a 2nd to Tomboy. She will like this track and is a winning chance. OKANE is the best of the rest for multiples.
Hard to Split: 4-EMVOSS, 7-SAVE YOURSELF, 3-SNIP’N’DUCK
First 4: 3,4,7—3,4,7—,1,3,4,7— 1,2,3,4,6,7,8
Race 8: If your down this time of the day it’s not a great race to get out on. I will keep it simple and say
On top: 4-STREET RIDE e/w
Next Best: 7-RIOQUALO
Quadrella selections Wednesday: 3,4,5—-1,3,4,5,7— 3,4,7—2,4,7,8
THURSDAY-CUP DAY
Race 1: Don’t want to be taking short odds anything here either…. Go easy.
On top: 2-DUBAI PROSPECT
Race 2: This is a far better race than the first. GENERAL”S SNIPER has 61kg, but on a food track, M.RODD on board and gate 5 she can be really hard to beat. HOIST was terrific winning here last week and is in good form. BINGO ROSE will be up on the speed and has been dominant her last two starts, she’s the one to beat. Also think LITTLE VICKI for Stephen Farley can improve and will be nice odds for multiples.
On Top: 3-BINGO ROSE
Dangers: 1-GENERAL’S SNIPER, 2-HOIST, 5-LITTLE VICKI
First 4: 1,2,3,4,5 boxed
Race 3: I will be staying well away from this race. If there is money for DEVIL’S MELODY that is the way I would be heading. Otherwise QUEENOFBEAUDESERT is an option but has the bad gate….
Race 4: 1,2,3,4,6,9 are all chances in a tough race. TEN SECONDS is also nominated in the last race.. I would simply work around them.
Race 5: I see this as simply a two horse race. GIBRALTER’S GEM comes off a nice SYD debut and that is a great lead into a race like we have here. DOUBLE RANGER is the only opposition and is a really nice QLD’er, it missed the start last time out by about 5 lengths and just went down in an enormous effort! They are clearly the two.
I will be taking them in the first leg of the quaddie.
On Top: 4-DOUBLE RANGER, 10-GIBRALTER’S GEM
Race 6: THE GRAFTON CUP:
A great edition of the cup this year! I see GOLD IN DUBAI getting an easy lead in front, but these country cups can make jockeys do some crazy things (changing tactics etc) If he gets the lead I expect him too than I have to put him on top as his last run proved he can see out the 2400m. SPECHENKA is one of my fav’s and I have no doubt in my mind that he is the best stayer in the race. If the pace happens to be on than he will run over them, and I am confident he will improve from his last start win. SHUFFLE THE CASH has been flying and a win would not surprise. He is reported to be in good shape and that’s enough to make him a major player. Outside of them THE VERMINATOR, LITTLE STRANGER, SUMMERISE and WARRIOR WITHIN are where I’d be looking for first 4’s and pretty confident they are the main ones.
On Top: 1-GOLD IN DUBAI
Hardest To Beat:
3-SPECHENKA, 2-SHUFFLE THE CASH, 4-THE VERMINATOR
First 4: 1,2,3—1,2,3—1,2,3,4,5,6,8—1,2,3,4,5,6,8
Race 7: The KIRBY 1000m
YOUTHFUL JACK and TIPPOFF both coming back off long layoff’s and market the guide for them. If SISTER HAVANA can find her best form she should put these away! If she doesn’t though, I’m not sure where to look for the quaddie??
On Top: 11-SISTER HAVANA
Race 8: Pretty keen on TEN SECONDS for Birchley. He has been gelded and has promised a bit, but had a couple of years off after showing that promise. If he is right he can be winning. TIVOLI BEAU can fill a place, but does have to overcome gate 16. PIMPALA LASS looks well placed but a bit of a worry she hasn’t won on a good track yet? DARSHAN JOH loves the track and trip. JESTACHENKA will look the winner at the 100m and has to go in multiple/exotic bets.
On Top: 15-TEN SECONDS
Next Best: 10-DARSHAN JOH, 2-JESTACHENKA, 12-PIMPALA LASS
Quadrella selections Cup Day:
4,10—1,2,3,4—11—2,10,12,14,15
***That’s the preview as I see it, so feel free to take it how you want. Print it off if you want to read it at work…Good luck if you have a bet.
I wish it could have been a bigger preview, but believe me it is time consuming doing the form and replays etc for two straight days, with a lot of other things going on.
Anyone who is down at the carnival Keep an eye out for my melon and come and say hello!
Good luck over the carnival.
