Grafton Cup day (Thursday)

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Well I’ve had to get these up Tuesday and hopefully Wednesday was a success and we aren’t chasing it back today as it does look a more even eight races today and a bit harder to find a winner.

The Cup looks one of the weaker editions in the last decade but the rest of the card looks pretty good.

 

(Not sure if there will be time but follow @brissyraces on Twitter and if I can update from the yard I will)

 

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Race 1:

Good 2yr old race.

Looks a good race for SHE’S CHOOSIE and assuming she has been aimed at this. Comes here off being beaten fresh carrying the 61kg and will drop 8kg here. Amazing they have decided against trying someone like McGillivray on top but that’s their choice. Hard to beat.

TIPPING has been good at Saturday grade in Brisbane. Really good when 2nd at Ippy and then got through the wet track alright at the sunny coast.

VERNAZZA in here. They might prove me wrong but feel they should have run and won Wednesday. They win here and no issue. Looks a very nice filly and might be better suited at this trip anyway.

*Slight lean to SHE’S CHOOSIE but VERNEZZA looks classy and can improve off the debut run. (NOTE- ANCIENT AZTEC is nominated a few places, if he runs here he can win)

On Top:  8-SHE’S CHOOSIE

Hardest To Beat: 11-VERNEZZA,  10-TIPPING

 

 

Race 2:

Tricky this! Not one I want to get too involved in.

Speed everywhere and just putting faith in B.Stewart to give his one of the best steers. WARFACE has speed to go forward and let a couple if he wants of he can be a bit more conservative. The Miss Exfactor and Envy Of All formlines are excellent for a race like this.

Even with the massive weight HIGH COST can run a race, better for the two runs back and Plumb takes over.

NOSEY has a lot of toe and will be in it for a long way.

*Tricky race, not getting too involved.

On Top: 4-WARFACE

Next Best: 2-NOSEY, 1-HIGH COST

 

 

Race 3:

good speed with LATITUDE and THE CALL ME ROSE the likely leaders.

LATITUDE is a good horse on the rise. Has won this track and was good three starts back against I AM SERIOUS. Last start fought well at Newcastle. Can be the best of the leaders.

Edmonds pair of AWAKE THE STARS and STAR OF NIGHT map to get across behind those leaders, would have been pretty happy to back AWAKE THE STARS but the 59.5kg my only query.

With the speed on the Dunn pair PEGAPUS and CONTRALTO will be the swoopers late. Of the pair i’d be leaning to CONTRALTO, from the good gate Byrne needs to just land in front of three or four and she can be the strongest late.

*Not much between a lot of these. Possibly a small e/w bet on CONTRALTO for mine.

On Top:  12- CONTRALTO e/w

Hardest To Beat: 1-AWAKE THE STARS, 1-LATITUDE

 

 

Race 4:

Does look WALLANDERS race, he is a nice horse on the way up and found another winnable race. Not a lot of speed here so he should be able to get it ok in front and give a kick like he did at the GC when winning by 5L. Might not be that margin today but gets his chance.

Reckon the value might be MELANYA, had 4 years off with injury but has been ok and better for the recent runs.

VELECANO gets winkers first time, a good gate and Newitt on top.

GORDON’S LEAP next best.

*Think WALLANDER gets his chance.

On Top: 2-WALLANDER

Next Best: 9-MELANYA,  5-VELECANO,  6-GORGON’S LEAP

 

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Race 5:

Good speed engaged here. That should set up well for RULER, the issue is he isn’t great out of the gates and barrier 1 means there is a chance he ends up 3-4 back the fence and bottled up. Reckon he wins easy or is a hard luck story stuck on the fence.

INKBLOT has trialled like a good horse and has El’Issa on top, the wide gate is not ideal on debut with speed underneath but they might go handlebars down and try to cross them all.

Young Jag would have got a speeding ticket on USURP first up. Byrne might ride a little quiet here or at least let something else lead. The horse has abilty and can finish of if they don’t spend all their pennies early.

Have backed DAFEENAH her last three, i’ve given up but she’ll be in the money somewhere.

*Think RULER is a nice horse and looks the one.

On Top: 2-RULER

Next Best: 6-USURP, 10-DAFEENAH

 

 

Race 6:

There might be a little speed early with ANOTHER SIN trying to boot up from the inside while FERNIHIRST and NIC’S VENDETTA cross from the outside, they are your first 3 settling. As long as they don’t go stupid they can hold it at a tempo that’s suits them and makes it hard for the fav KING LEAR. Surely Skye, Tegan and Looker are better than to go silly up front?

For that reason they are hard to beat. FERNIHIRST looked home in the country qualifier here and it took Snitz to get her down. Has won fresh and hard to catch. TAILLEVENT is impossible to take but still be ok to me at odds over time. He can sit 5th behind this speed and has actually been consistent this time in. He was 4L off Tyzone who is fav in the Ramornie, then 2nd to Miss Iano who was then only 3L away at G2 level. Last start was wide and still gave a kick behind Manaya who is airborne.

KING LEAR was outstanding last week, good option to bypass the Ramornie and he will be hoping for them to over cook the speed up front, if they do he will swoop.

ALOT LIKE HOME some hope also for trifectas.

*Good race with many chances. Maybe TAILLEVENT just in a very even race.

On Top:  6-TAILLEVENT

Next Best: 14-FERNIHURST,  3-KING LEAR

 

 

Race 7: GRAFTON CUP

Gotta be honest, what an ordinary edition. Some of the other races all over the carnival are excellent, this just hasn’t grabbed me at all. Including emergencies only 3 of the 20 runners are coming off wins? And only two others are coming of a placing at their last start? I rest my case!

Hard to be excited about this and hard to find a winner.

I’ve landed on FIRST CRUSH by default, he is the honest, tough one who you know will be thereabouts. This is a real grinding bunch and this bloke can get a good run a few pairs back and put himself into the race on the corner.

Trying to find one with a really good turn of foot is near impossible here. MISS DUBOIS has one on her day but you have to be awfully forgiving of her last couple. I can forget last start on a very heavy track but she was avg before that. The fact they have put blinkers on her and that she has landed in this field just brings her back in the game for mine. If she lands midfield  and is on her game she can sprint better than these.

To be honest I don’t really won’t to get much deeper into this.

*Won’t be spending mush on the big one myself, a bet on these two below.

On Top: 4-FIRST CRUSH $4.50

Roughie: 10-MISS DUBOIS $27

 

 

Race 8: The Kirby

Everyone’s favourite race! Not sure any human has ever backed the winner of the Kirby but we line up again for a laugh.

Luck will play the biggest part in this race. There is a ridiculous amount of speed in this and a few will be getting a stitch at the 150m and you can guarantee that a couple will be held up behind some speed bumps with a stitch.

With all the speed I think TIYATROLANI can sit behind that, be held up for the last shot and with a bit of luck or a good steer from Byrne get the cash late. Really well placed and nice drop in grade here.

They should bet on the leader at the 600m because they will scorch, I reckon DON’T TEASE ME might be able to lead them all and does give a kick, you’ll look the winner and have your heart in your mouth at the 100m.

NICOF possibly a real roughie who can swoop but may still just get too far back.

*A bit like the cup, you could be here all day going over chances but TIYATROLANI for me.

On Top: 5-TIYATROLANI

 

 

 

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Gibbo’s Best Bets:

No real value today.

Race 4 No.2- WALLANDER

Race 5 No.2- RULER

 

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