Grafton Cup Preview

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It was a pretty successful day for those who jumped on and got the mail for Grafton’s Ramornie day. IN THE BACK ROW was a great start at $5.80 and LOSE IT which looked the best bet on the card was indeed that around the $4 mark.

Like I said earlier in the week I usually like to focus on weekend racing as it is a far better product, but with the Grafton carnival in full swing we will make another exception and find a few more that create interest on the Grafton Cup card.

Rain is predicted, but how much falls is all important, and you’d expect them to get out to the crown of the track and even wider as the day goes on.

Here are a few I think will run well, but it’s worth noting I was more confident Ramornie day and this does look a lot harder.

 

Race 4 No 3 DUX BELLORUM

Liam Birchley targets races at this carnival and strikes each year. This is a perfect race for the very well bred son of General Nediym. He is 3rd up into this and comes off a 4th beaten 2.9L by the promising SIGNIFIED. There are some locals with decent form, including MONEYSAVER who loves the wet but DUX BELLORUM looks the one.

 

Race 5: Interesting race. If it pours rain SOOKIE gets a question next to it and I’m not sure what to do with her. There are three engaged here that are well above the rest. ON THE DECK was terrific last start when narrowly beaten at the Sunshine coast. The rain wouldn’t worry him and he is improving every time he hits the track which is a great sign, he is also a blackbooker on the site. SUBSTATION is another QLD’er who handles all conditions and did run 2rd in the Listed Dalrello stakes two starts back. ZIN ZAN EDDIE is a Sydneysider who ran really well on debut at Warwick Farm and has won a trial since.

Happy to quinella: 6-ON THE DECK, 8-SUBSTATION, 10-ZIN ZAN EDDIE

 

Race 7: The 2350m GRAFTON CUP.

With all due respect this is not a very strong cup. SHAMARDASHING brings solid form into the cup and his last effort when wide all the way was a great pointer to this. Any rain helps his chances but he can win on any surface.

WARRIOR WITHIN won this race last year and if the rain happened to miss Grafton he is the biggest danger. If the rain was to hit you would lose a lot of confidence on previous efforts.

SOUTHERN SHIMMER has always promised a lot but has really mixed his form over his last couple of preps. His last run when 2nd at Warwick Farm and the fact he has the light weight gives him a chance in this but $3 seems more than short enough!

GAZA GURU nearly won a Newcastle cup that was a lot stronger than this and he can run well. Again I’d rather him on a dead or better track.

SAINT ENCOSTA drops back from group 1′s and 2′s and other than his last start his runs have been ok. This is a massive step down in grade.

Outside of them would be a massive surprise. The only real issue is the pace in the race.. There doesn’t seem to be a lot and in these country cups you can get a jockey taking off a long way from home and throw the race wide open.

On Top: 3-SHAMARDASHING

 

Race 7: Another race with a few clear picks (or so it seems). BEGGIN is a good quality mare from Brisbane’s Bryan Dais stable. She is always around the money and this is her right trip. She gets a little weight relief from her Rockhampton run and will go close again.

LITTLE VICKI won this race last year and although her form may not look great she made ground 2 runs back on mad leader bias track and had 58.5kg last start. Do not underestimate her. (she would rather be on top of the ground)

ERINSEA is just a terrific local who knows how to win. She has to lump 59.5kg but has an awesome record this track and this trip. IRISH LOVE, PETICOAT GENERAL, CAPITAL RISING and MORE THAN ROYAL can have cases made for them in what looks a pretty open race.

On Top: 2-ERINSEA

Hardest To Beat: 7-BEGGIN, 9-LITTLE VICKI

 

QUADRELLA***

6,8,10 —– 2,3,4,6 —– 2,6,7,9 —– 4,6,11,13,14

**BLACKBOOKERS**

July 12
  ON THE DECK GRAFTON R5 No.6 (1200m)
  SHAMARDASHING GRAFTON R6 No.3 (2350m)
  LITTLE VICKI GRAFTON R7 No.9 (1400m)