Just hand picking a few races this year instead of the full previews each day of the carnival.
As usual feel free to pass on to any racing mates. Doing this form on Monday and on a HEAVY track. They haven’t raced on the pad from rail TRUE-3m since March. There has been recent heavy track racing on the rest of this surface and I can’t see how the fence to 3m can’t be superior ground. It has to be? I guess we find out. They have it as a slow track but as mentioned the talk was it was worse than original rating Sunday.
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RACE 4: * * * *
Decent sort of CL2 over the mile. Not great speed but a few from out wide push across. MALAWI GOLD is a bit of a ‘nonnie’ but he gets the dream run behind the speed and if that’s the place to be he can peel around or inside leader and find the right spot.
BOOM GATE ($15 look overs) was good on debut before stepping to 1700m last start and savaging the line, he looks like a handy one and gets a gate to land midfield but not seen on a wet track. Watch the betting because this stable will soon let you know if he’s galloped well on it at home.
In the corner of ONEMORE SAPPHIRE who has continued to run well in the Highway handicaps in Sydney. Handles all conditions and the big track is also suitable. O’Brien has been a little positive the last couple and landed in front of 4-5 and that’s key here, if he can land midifield and you are able to make ground down the outside I think he wins.
LA PULGA has the sticky gate and needs a good ride. Ran well on a soft track behind a decent horse last start running the best L200m split of the race so this trip is what he’s after now.
*Good race with a few main chances, rides might make all the difference. To be honest $3.40 is as short as I’d like the fav.
On Top: 2-ONEMORE SAPPHIRE $3.50
Hardest To Beat: 9-BOOM GATE $16, 6-MALAWI GOLD, (LA PULGA if runs)
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RACE 7: THE RAMORNIE: *
Not sure it’s a race I’ll bet into but thought I’d do the preview.
The gates have really thrown the cat among the pigeons with many of the leading hopes now up against it. They have shown their hand with WHYPEEO, Tegan rides and she will go handlebars down as Collett on CRADLE MOUNTAIN will try to follow it across and sit outside leader. There is a big possibility the track is favouring those on speed so they may be able to give a good kick and be hard to catch. MALEA MAGIC gets a nice run and handles wet, wouldn’t usually think she’s up to a Ramornie but may be able to fall into f4’s if track is biased.
CARE TO THINK and HAUNTED look to get good runs one off the fence just in front of midfield. Both would clearly be the one’s to beat on their best but they are hard to trust. CARE TO THINK does not like a wet track and that has to be a big query. His best wins this but it’s been a long time since he’s been at his best and five runs unplaced. HAUNTED has exceptional a few times in his career, he handles all conditions and may well go on to win better races. Queries with him are first run this way of going and the blinkers come off. Also his last run was horrible but he might be the one with the most upside in the race and they are the horses you want to be on in a Ramornie.
SMARTYPY needs a peach from the outside gate but if she gets the right run she is going well enough to win this, the Multaja form is good. Didn’t give TOP STRIKER any hope but now the rain is here he comes right into it. Don’t have to use any petrol from the good gate and can land midfield, he’s better ridden that little bit quiet as he finishes off better.
*No confidence here.
On Top: 6-HAUNTED $5
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RACE 8: * * *
Interesting race to finish. The toppy MISS SCORCHER has to carry 63kg first up on a wet track but she still might be good enough to win! She is clearly the class runner. She either holds the fence or lets FRIENDS OF WREN go and gets on it’s back.
POLYXENA has won or placed in 5 of 6 career runs, she handles all conditions and she comes here off a very good trial. Off that trials it’s fair to say she looks to have improved on the break. Should find the one out and one back spot to get every possible.
MANILA MISS now in the Dunn camp can park behind the leader or at worst one pair further back. She has had two very nice trials leading into this and she does get though the ground. She might not be as good as the two at the top but she has a nice pull in the weights and the best jock on top.
*POLYXENA on top.
On Top: 2-POLYXENA $5
Next Best: 1-MISS SCORCHER, 7-MANILA MISS
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