(Updated 12:10pm Thursday)
Racing is hotting up into the big days in Sydney and this weekend is the 150th Derby and the Sire’s produce. We are going to preview these two big group 1’s and hopefully make the races seem a little clearer. The track has had some rain through the week and although it is only Thursday I have done my form on a slow track. (showers are predicted each day including Saturday)
We will kick off in the Sires, and it is a cracker of a race with a lot of chances.
NOTE: Smart Missile is now scratched.
I thought Smart Missile could win the slipper so he is going to be my on top pick. His win over Sepoy last start was outstanding and I think his turn of foot may well be too much for the others over the 1400m. Although it would have been very upsetting for connections last week, it may well have been a blessing in disguise as they have the fresh horse going into the race and some of the others have to back up and last week which was their grand final. He has won his only two starts and I think from barrier four Boss gets into a super position to get cover and let rip after straightening. Top pick and should prove he would have been a force in the Slipper. $2.40 currently and that is about the right price.
One of our blackbook horses is Elite Falls who was very good in the slipper, and has been good her whole prep. She will get back and will need to be good to win. But Randwick will help, and with the prediction of rain she is in this race up to her ears! Slipper winners and placegetters have a strong record and she can definitely add to that. 1400m looks perfect, and you can be sure she will be putting in the big ones late. $6 at the moment, so not a bad each way price.
I have Helmet as the pace and he has been kept safe in the markets at $7. He should be able to get to the lead without spending to much petrol and if that’s the case I actually give him some hope of winning. I think he has taken team Snowden by surprise this bloke and they are starting to get a read on him. McEvoy gave him one with the whip last start and he went sideways for a stride, so he may not make that mistake again. He is still learning the caper but with a cheap lead I think he can play a part.
I am very confident those three will have a major say. It gets difficult away from them though.
Not sure what to make of Shared Reflections? Oliver was reported to be happy enough with slipper run and is on again. She seemed to one plug a bit in the straight but may be looking for further. You would expect her to have to go a long way back from gate 11, and that would make it tough for her to win. She is not the worst in the race and has ability, but she is not in my top few.
Uate gets the gun run and has won 3 from 3. He is very honest but I am just not sure on the form surrounding him. The horses behind him have run ok without winning since and although I see him running well, it would surprise if he could beat the top three picks.
Do You Think is also unbeaten and again was a nice winner last week where he had a good position and a 10 out of 10 ride from Bowman. This is a step up in grade but Bart knows what he’s doing and you can’t write him off. A chance for multiple players.
Pane In The Glass is an interesting runner. A lot of people have dropped off her after a couple of defeats. I’m a little the opposite, I thought she was overated but am starting to get a bit of time for her. Their tactics are crucial in this race, they can go way back from gate 12. They can try to get some cover midfield which I think would be a bad decision too. I think their chances rely on going forward and trying to sit outside Helmet. She is $21 and I will be having her in my first 4’s etc.
Fast And Sexy was scratched at barriers last week also and is not without some hope from gate 1 and getting to 1400m. Disputes is a chance to be the other horse that pushes forward, but you wouldn’t think Darley would be keen to pressure Helmet?
GIBBO’S SIRES SELECTIONS:
8 ELITE FALLS
2 HELMET
8 PANE IN THE GLASS
Roughie: 11- FAST AND SEXY
The running of the 150th Derby should be exciting as we see the best staying three year olds do battle. I usually get very annoyed when people say a Group 1 race is low quality as they are extremely hard to win and their trainers and connections have got them there on the day. However this Derby does seem to lack a bit on previous years. What it does have though is a top shelf Kiwi colt and a top shelf filly and a lot of others for multiples. That may be the way to bet in this race with the favourite around $2. I am looking at the Rosehill Guineas as the dominant form leading into the Derby over the Tulloch form, so I hope I have pulled the right rein.
Here is how I see the race:
After his dominant display in the Rosehill Guineas Jimmy Choux is the red hot favourite and deservedly so. He won the NZ Derby on a heavy track two starts ago and was very strong on the line that day. He then came out and won the Rosehill Guineas and has apparently come on since that run. He is the one to beat here but is very skinny at $2 in such a big race, I’m sure he will have to be closer to $2.80 on the day? Distance is not a worry, weather not a worry, inside barrier gets him a nice run midfield. Tick, tick, tick, tick.
I have got a lot of time for Shamrocker. She has come on and improved since her last preparation. Brazilian Pulse had her measure in the spring but I feel Shamrocker has taken the next step. She won the Australian Guineas, beating the best boys we have, then ran a very game third in the Rosehill Guineas being beaten 1.5L. She has made just under $1million so far and will surpass that after this race. I think the record is that only 8 fillies have won the derby? My argument is that not a lot take the derby on, and when they do it would usually be against a stronger field than Shamrocker is taking on here. She has the runs on the board and is in form so she is one of the dangers to the fav.
Retrieve was absolutely smashed in the betting in the Tulloch into $1.70. He was a few pairs back and left flat footed in the straight, and looked very disappointing? However I think he has a few things in his favour, he really enjoys a wet track, he will enjoy getting to 2400m and they have decide to roll forward with him which is definitely his racing style as he is very one paced. He will stay and is one with a touch of class. His run when second in the Rosehill guineas is the run that makes him a chance. He will be out of trouble in the lead while others may need a touch of luck when some of the others knock up. And unless someone does something crazy (which can happen in $1.5 million races) he should get a comfortable lead.
Light Brigade was pretty good at Rosehill and is a blueblood! He ran up to Retrieve that day and battled away well but just didn’t stay how you would have liked leading into the mile and a half. He is rock hard fit and is on the brink of the placings somewhere. The same case for Masquerader who finished along side of him that day.
I Think I Do has had four runs leading into this and his last 2 have been pretty good. It is a Bart Cummings stayer who seems to be peaking when needed. He ran as good as anything in the Tulloch and Bart likes them to back up into their staying goals. I do think he will be better next preparation, but don’t ever write of a Cummings horse going to a staying trip, especially if they are in form!
King Gladiator is a horse a lot of people are saying is the main danger. Chris Waller has him going well and he is bred to get the trip. He made up a lot of ground in the Tulloch and run through the line nice, so he has to be given a chance to run in the top 4 somewhere, but he would have to take a giant step to be winning. I definitely wouldn’t talk people out of him but find it hard to see him roll Jimmy and co.
I heard an interesting article with team Hawkes and they have an enourmous opinion Of Shadowofexcellance. He has seemed to be very ordinary lately but they feel 2400m at Randwick is right up his alley. At $101 he may be worth throwing in a first 4 for a smaller percentage?
Now to my roughie at big odds. I was taken by the run of He’s Remarkable in the Guineas. He is bred to run all day being by Pentire out of a Zabeel mare, so the trip is not an issue. He got to the outside and I felt he was going as good as anything on the line. M.Rodd keeps the ride and was pretty happy with his run also. I just think he is improving and the trip over may well have brought him on a bit. When a handful of these others are getting a stitch at the 400m mark he will be working into it. But there lies his trouble, he will go back and have to get luck in running to figure. But he will be in all my multiples for sure, and may even look at an any2 with Jimmy Choux.
GIBBO’S DERBY SELECTIONS:
1 JIMMY CHOUX
3 RETRIEVE
14 SHAMROCKER
Best Roughies: 7- HE’S REMARKABLE, 12- KING GLADIATOR
Remember to bet responsibly, and good luck if you have a punt!
That is how I see the two big races going and I hope I can help in some way. On Friday as usual we will have a HUGE “The Punt” section up including my big6 numbers for those having a go at the expected $3 million pool. It will also have “The Prophet’s” best bets. Our celebrity tip should come from QLD Reds and Wallaby winger Peter Hynes, and I will run through the Brisbane card and find some winners amongst them.
So don’t forget to check in, and remember to pass a brissyraces.com.au link on to your mates!
Cheers- Gibbo
