Ipswich Cup day 2019 on The Punt

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*Nice to tip the majority of the card last week with 5/9- SIGNORE FOX, VICTOREM, KOLDING, SIXTIES GROOVE and PRINZE FAWAZ…… That will not be happening today at Ipswich!!

Luck plays a massive part when racing at Ipswich and if you don’t like hard luck stories you best keep the wallet in your pocket or don’t watch the races here. Anytime there are big fields around this tight track there will be horror stories. Key is to hopefully find leaders in slow run races but that is rare on Cup day with full fields.

Tough sort of day but let’s rip in.

 

Race 1: * *

Not a lot of speed, LOTA CREEK GOLD and RED COLOUR lead and box seat. Gollan is the best tactical trainer in QLD and I wouldn’t be surprised with the big weight if he rolls forward with SILVERA and tries to sit outside leader. That is where you are going to want to be and with the big weight you want momentum on the corner, not being held up and making a run five wide. Feel they are the main three as the other two get it cheap on speed.

QUEEN OF KINGSTON next best, gets a nice run in transit and just has to see the trip out.

*I’ll quinella the top three. Might also have something SILVERA.

On Top: 1-SILVERA $8.50

Next Best: 2-LOTA CREEK GOLD, 13-RED COLOUR, 4-QUEEN OF KINGSTON

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Race 2: * *

Plenty of speed and a very hard race to try and work out. This is one of those races I can see being messy.

Would have been keen on JEWELIANA or READY TO ROAM had they drawn better. They are likely to land around midfield but are a chance of being posted from there. JEWELIANA was a very good 3.3L win on debut after some nice trials. This is harder but plenty to like about her. READY TO ROAM comes out of a very good listed race where he raced off the speed and was excellent late, this is easier and just needs some luck in running.

Loved the debut of KARAJA, straight to paddock after that but looks very promising.

On Top:  1-READY TO ROAM  +++  10-JEWELIANA ++  KARAJA

 

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Race 3: * *

Looks to be a really high tempo race and looking for one who gets the best run.

EGYPTIAN BULLET (if she runs here) might be the horse that gets the best run in the race and felt she was good at EF behind Noble Boy. Off the good tempo she can be one of the best late.

TRAUMATISED run the best split from the 800-600m last start and just used too much gas to get through the line. The run was still good and with some luck can also be in the finish

On Top: 5-EGYPTIAN BULLET ew $6.50

Hardest To beat: 9-TRAUMATISED

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Race 4: * *

This is a race without a lot of tempo and feel TISANI MAGIC will be well suited. Has been in really good form and just a very consistent horse who is always around the money. 

MR BELLAGIO has been good most of his prep, really like the form he’s been in and last start was a forgive after being held up at a vital stage where he should have been building revs. He’s another horse I’d be sending forward if he was mine. That’s the issue, he’s not and i have no idea how they will ride him, might be back and come 6-7 wide………

On Top:  1-MR BELLAGIO $9   +++   2-TISANI MAGIC $4.50

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Race 5: * * * *

Massive trust issues between myself and a lot of these stayers. Had been backing HIGH WIND most his prep and he was going like a busted but has been far better his last two. Felt IT AINT ALL HONEY was really well placed last start but was just plain late after getting every chance. OAKFIELD MONACH hasn’t come back as good as i thought. etc etc.

HAPPY GO PLUCKY has the big weight but I do like him. First two runs this prep had merit and last start was ridden upside down and never given a chance. Cahill goes on, he can land 3-4th pair getting a soft run and just needs a good steer finding room at the right time.

On Top: 1-HAPPY GO PLUCKY $7

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Race 6: * *

Good race and massive amounts of speed. Thos on speed will be out of danger so assuming they will still want to find the fence first. I do expect WINTER PASSAGE and BOOMTOWN LASS to get nice runs but as usual will need luck getting the splits at the right time. Both can sit just off the speed and both are above average fillies.

WINTER PASSAGE was frustrating last prep, always put herself there but found one better. This is suitable and off a nice trial she will be right in this. BOOMTOWN LASS used petrol to lead last start and set it up for Malahide to run her down late. That filly then placed at listed level last week. Great formline and she gets last shot at these leaders if they knock up late.

On Top:  11-BOOMTOWN LASS $8

Hardest To Beat: 7-WINTER PASSAGE $9

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Race 7: * 

Wow this is a disappointing race for $101k to the winner, not even a full field and can’t help but think connections of many staying horses have targeted the wrong races over the carnival and they have left $100k on the table here because this is not a good race.

We have a $3.30 fav who comes off a bm75 and a Cl5 win at Toowoomba?

So, what wins? No idea.

Did like the way MASTER ZEPHYR was going before last run but you have to forgive that effort. Not only up on speed but in a fast run race around EF. This is a lot easier and like Boss on top. The drop from G2/G3 back to this is perfect. If i have a bet it will be him at $17.

Roughie: 5-MASTER ZEPHYR $17

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Race 8: *

Good luck here, capacity field with a heap of speed, there will be hard luck stories galore!! If i’m having a bet it will be value.

PETROLOGY is $41 and horses that finished next to him in MR MARBELLOUZ and MALVERN ESTATE are single figures. He’s got a good gate, gets every chance and he goes in quaddies etc.

VIOLATE comes out of the G3 BRC Sprint that Tyzone won also and I like the fact they have kept their horse fresh and aimed at a race like this instead of being an afterthought like most the field. He was back last start but weaved through and run the 2nd best L400m of the race. With luck in running he will be in the finish.

CHAPTER AND VERSE will need a stack of luck but if he gets it he will win.

*Looks a nightmare. Throw PETROLOGY in exotics.

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Race 9: * *

ORGANZA has been very good her last two. She draws well and is a deserved fav. She draws a good gate and the Blue army are on fire in QLD!.

PECANS  was only a length off the fav last start and she was a month between runs on that occasion. She will strip fitter and Shinn takes over from Sam Clenton. He should be positive out of the gates and then let READY TO PROPHET cross him. Feel she’s over the odds at $9.

MANAYA was outstanding last week, she’s been aimed at this and she is right up to this grade. The issue for her is gate 1, if she gets buried three back the fence she will need a miracle ride to get a run at the right time.

On Top: 6-ORGANZA $3

Value: 1-PECANS $9

Next Best: 4-MANAYA

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GIBBO’S BEST:

Best e/w

Race 5 No.1-HAPPY GO PLUCKY $7

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Race 9 No.6-ORGANZA $3