Another good weekend leading into the Cup.
You can keep all the new races on the calendar, I love this race, I love the build up, the internationals, the fact it’s a handicap and everything about it.
It can be a very hard race to find a winner in, I was hopeless back in the day but it’s been very profitable the last 5-6 years.
Feel free to share any of our posts with friends. Whatever you get up to Cup day, have a great time and enjoy the great race.
PREVIEW:
1-CROSS COUNTER– Last years winner. He’s a very good horse and has been racing well enough to win it again. Jumping 6.5kg is a very big impost and that’s the big query this year. Class will carry him a long way.
2-MER DE GLACE– Caulfield Cup winner. Hasn’t been the lead up it once was in recent years. Can’t help but feel this years edition was very good. He has a turn of foot to win this race. Took him on in the CC and got it wrong. The query is does he run a strong 3200m? If he does he nearly wins.
3-MASTER OF REALITY– No real idea to be honest. Hasn’t raced in oz, haven’t heard or seen much footage of work. In a good stable, but hard to steer you. Decent form around good horses but no real turn of foot in his replays.
4- MIRAGE DANCER- Liked this horse in the Caulfield Cup and he went super there. Out to 3200m not ideal, can see him finish in top 10 but don’t have him winning.
5- SOUTHERN FRANCE– Has form around some good horses. Hard to get a guide on. Mixed reports from the training track. Not sure what to make of him to be honest.
6- HUNTING HORN- Won the MV cup leading into this. The horse that ran 3rd then won the lead up race Saturday. Hard to knock but not in my numbers.
7- LATROBE– Excellent at WFA over 2000m last year. Been ok in the UK this year without winning a lot. Bad gate, hard to have but far from the worst.
8- MUSTAJEER- Couldn’t have come into him 6 months ago. Since then won the Ebor in the Uk beating some good horses. The run in the CC was very good, not far off the likes of the fav in this. Runs well.
9- ROSTROPOVICH- Just doesn’t seem to be going as well as he can. Multiple gear changes each start doesn’t give me confidence here.
10- TWILIGHT PAYMENT– Not a bad horse when leading. Not convinced he’s a Melb Cup winner but hard to knock at the same time.
11- FINCHE- 4th in this race last year. Has seem to come on under Wallers care. Been very consistent, gets the run of the race, Flemington suits and gets every possible chance
12- PRINCE OF ARRAN– Ran 3rd last year. In his races to date in Australia he’s run 3rd in a Herbert Power, Won a Hotham, 3rd in a Melb Cup, 2nd in a Herbert Power and Won a Geelong Cup. He thrives out here, fairly weighted, great gate and a main player in this.Meets Cross Counter 5.5kg better off this year.
13- RAYMOND TUSK- Not the best of the internationals and hard to know how he’s done out here. Reports are ok and he’s run well leading into this. 4th in the Ebor and feel he’s worth some consideration in first 4’s etc.
14- DOWNDRAFT- 3rd in the MV cup and won the Hotham on Saturday to get his spot. Not the worst. Not one of mine but hard to knock.
15- MAGIC WAND– One of the best horses in the race. She has a habit of finding one better but she’s a genuine G1 horse. Nice weight for here, running the 3200m is the query, if she does she is right in this off a brave run in the Cox plate.
16- NEUFBOSC- Not for me.
17-SOUND- Not for me either.
18- SURPRISE BABY– One of the Aussie hopes! He’s a very good stayer. Won an Adelaide cup at 6th career start. Been racing extremely well with big weights, drops to 53.5kg and can run a hell of a race here. Gate not ideal but his turn of foot gives him a live chance.
19- CONSTANTINOPLE- European 3yr old so gets well in at the weights. The last two cup winners have this profile. This guy reminds me of Cross Counter before he won last year. Both ran 2nd in the Great Voltigeur and looked good doing so. He beat the 3rd horse there by many lengths, it then won a G3 race next start. He’s joined the Hayes camp, got winkers and had no luck on an unsuitable track in the CC. Ran the best L200m split there after a bad check. Big track, lands midfield, good jock and the one they all have to beat.
20- IL PARADISO– Another 3yr old in Europe. Was keen on him early, heard reports his work had been plain since he arrived. Apparently that has changed since they threw blinkers on. Could be the making of him and showing him plenty of respect.
21- STEEL PRINCE- Won 5 in a row last prep and was going every bit as well as Surprise Baby. Hasn’t been going as well this prep.
22- THE CHOSEN ONE- Like the horse and he beat Prince Of Arran a few runs back. His last two have been a bit plain, that’s the issue.
23- VOW AND DECLARE- Massive chance for the Aussies. He’s a genuine stayer, the further they go the better he will be. Barrier is the main issue but with luck he can run very well. Just a horse with great staying ability, suited at this track and trip. He can win without surprising.
24-YOUNGSTAR- Good in this race last year. Promised to be a star but her form has been a bit plain compared to where we thought she’d end up.
GIBBO’S MELBOURNE CUP SELECTIONS 2019:
*These might be updated before 9am Tuesday morning, early guide only at present*
19-CONSTANTINOPLE $8
18-SURPRISE BABY $16
12-PRINCE OF ARRAN $22
23-VOW AND DECLARE $13
20-IL PARADISO $15
