Melbourne Cup day Preview 2013

Print Friendly

MELBOURNE CUP DAY 2013:Cup

Hi everyone! Old followers and new. I thought the best thing to do on our biggest race day is to do a simple preview you can print out and take to the track or pub and that you can forward or email family members that may want to get a leg up for their one day at the track for the year.

Here are the main chances in each Flemington race Melbourne Cup Day!

 Check out

www.tatts.com  for all the latest prices!!

*

Race 1:

2yr olds, many haven’t started. Save your money.

 *

*

Race 2:

GOLDSLICK is a very good mare but meets MINNIE DOWNS 6kg worse off here and MINNIE DOWNS should have her covered with that turnaround. MINNIE DOWNS will go back from the gate but this is usually run at a decent tempo and she will be very hard to hold out.

ENDLESS SHADOW will again run on and likely to place, just not sure how genuine she is?

WISTFUL is a very nice improving mare that is likely to start fav. If the fence is ok she will probably win. I am slightly concerned as the fence is usually not the place to be cup day…

*Around $10-14 happy to have  something on MINNIE DOWNS e/w

Selection:  8- MINNIE DOWNS   $12

Next Best:  13- WISTFUL

 *

*

Race 3:

I’ve said it 1000 times, the imported stayers are simply far too good for us, so that’s who should fight this weak race out. Taking on the overseas stayers in these races is like us trying to beat the Kenyan’s in a marathon!

Chris Waller holds the key. OPINION is cleary the best horse in the race. He does however have to lump 59kg which is far from ideal. His first run in Oz was super when he missed the start, got pushed wide and hit the line hard. He will go very close here.

JUNOOB drops 5kg on his last run and the 2800m should suit. I would be respecting him.

*Think OPINION has lengths on them and class should carry him a long way. Anything over $4 looks a good price.

Selection:  1- OPINION

Matt Dunn Racing

*

*

Race 4:

Dangerous betting affair. Any of about 10 runners could win!

ARINOSA clearly the best horse in the race, she just has to overcome the big weight. Genuine Group 1-2 horse and will fly late.

AEROBATICS and SHE’S CLEAN are extremely talented and only have to get a bit of luck from the barriers to be in the finish. Both have an exceptional turn of foot and are well up to this.

KOONOOMOO was 2nd to Red Tracer who won the Group 1 Saturday and has a sense of timing about her. Same goes for ASSERTIVE EAGLE who attacked the line and peaks for this. UPDATE- Really warming to ASSERTIVE EAGLE with the right run in transit

GOLDEN PENNY may have been in easier races but she will like the 1400m and the form from her last run lines up. She is not a bad $20 pop for trifecta’s.

**Open race, looking for some type of value

Value:  3- KOONOOMOO  $12 –  8 -ASSERTIVE EAGLE

Class- 4- SHE’S CLEAN,  1- ARINOSA

 *

*

 

 

Race 5:

They should go like cut cats here. 1000m down the straight!

KUROSHIO drops back from taking on the older horses and looks very well placed.

LORD OF THE SKY was impressive last start and has trialled very well leading into this.

SELECTIFY went super at the valley behind two very good horses, the straight suits him.

SUIT looks promising for team Darley but have the feeling they would lean to KUROSHIO.

Although 1000m may be too short I think this is a good target for DIAMOND OASIS. They will look for cover, peel out at the 300m and be the strongest late and the $10 is inviting.

QUINELLA boxed:  1,7,12

Selection – 7 – DIAMOND OASIS  $10

Next Best:  12- SELCTIFY,  1- KUROSHIO,

pineapple

 *

*

 

Race 6:

Looks to be two clear of the field here with no value- 3- MODERATE is on the way up and looks promising. POLITENESS was the Thousand Guineas fav a month ago and is $3.30 here! They are the clear two and I feel PATRICIA DAWN looks to be the only danger as the big track here will suit and she can run a race at $21…

*Not a race that interests me much.

Numbers:  5, 3, 6

 

 

Race 7:  THE MELBOURNE CUP

www.tatts.com (The QLD TAB) have a JACKPOT First 4 with the pool starting at $275,000

I would usually go through every runner but we could be here till Wednesday typing!

Again overseas runners and imports now with Australian trainers will excel.

MOUNT ATHOS was the unlucky runner last year, he has been set for this race since that day, his last run was outstanding and most importantly I am certain Williams will roll forward this year. He seems to ‘lose the bunny’ when he is ridden back. He can sit close and watch out if he gets a bit of cover and sits first 5-6 in the run.

Many good reports on VEREMA the French mare. She is lightly raced, has a nice turn of foot and will relax beautifully. Only concern is the jockey getting clear running from the 800m to let her unwind. She is very, very good!

Godolphin bring ROYAL EMPIRE out here and he is the horse that is over the odds. Around $26 is available and he is better than that. His win four runs ago over 2000m showed his acceleration that you need in a cup.

BROWN PANTHER did beat MOUNT ATHOS a couple of runs ago in a great staying effort. He gets a great gate to get a cushy run and get every chance. He is also some value for trifecta’s.

TRES BLUE is the latest addition to Waterhouse stable. Not sure what to make of him. He will sit on pace and the form around him is super with one horse running top 5 in the world’s best race- The ARC after TRES BLUE beat it.

The other Waterhouse runner is FIORENTE and I can’t believe it is actually $7. The preparation this horse has had is incredible. Won the Dato, should have won the Turnbull and the Cox plate 3rd was outstanding. He ran 2nd in the Cup last year and can go one better!

Many other chances, DANDINO 2nd in a Caulfield Cup, SEVILLE was great in the Cox plate, GREEN MOON gets blinkers 1st time and SIMENON has run 2nd in an Ascot Gold Cup.

**Good luck! I will be backing a few of these below. Hard to split the top 4 below.TattsBet

MELBOURNE CUP selections:

15 – MOUNT ATHOS    $10

21 – VEREMA     $13

6 – FIORENTE      $7

16 – ROYAL EMPIRE      $20

5 – BROWN PANTHER    $20

 *

*

*

 

Race 8:

Would have been very keen on GRIS CARO had he not had a setback this prep. He can still win but an setback is obviously not ideal.

RAIN DRUM will roll forward and Waterhouse has them going well. The effort last time out behind 3 very genuine Group horses was outstanding. Rawiller rides and he will take a stack of beating. Around the $4 is about right.

SALON SOLDIER won his first race in Australia with ease when rounding them up and winning by 2.5L with 59kg. Obviously that shows his quality and drops 4.5kg into this.

PELICANO found form last start and should be respected.

MULL OF KILLOUGH looked like a ‘flop’ in the Cox Plate but this is easier, they will probably go forward and 1800m is more suitable.

Selection:  3 – RAIN DRUM  $3.80

Next Best:  5- SALON SOLIDER,  4- GRIS CARO

 *

*

Race 9:

Throw a dart at them?? This is really tough!

READY TO RIP and PAGO ROCK are ‘class’ runners but have the big weights to lump. The Spirit Of Boom form they have stacks up super for a race like this.

THAT’S THE ONE has had no luck at all this prep but is going really well. The 1200m down the straight suits more than its last couple and respect at $13.

Four Adelaide horses all with great chances- NEAREST TO THE PIN is super consistent, JUST DISCREET looks well placed, KARACATIS (SCRATCHED) may back-up from a great run Saturday and AVOID LIGHTNING peaks here, really like her although this is harder than her latest she can win.

If ACADEMY JACK gets a run he can be a potential blowout at $21. 1st up last time ran very well.

RICHIES VIBE is getting expensive and thought trainer said he was going for a spell, must be going ok to stay in work?

MAHISARA goes like a bomb fresh and many will probably be keen to get the $11 on offer.

Value:  13- AVOID LIGHTNING   $13

Next Best:  6 – THAT’S THE ONE  $13,    5- MAHISARA  $11

*

*

 MaluaRacing...

Race 10:

Blinkers go on THE NEW BOY, he will go forward, as will LAMPEDUSA and SWIPELINE so speed should be genuine.

A lot depends on how the track is playing, are they leading? Swooping? Or a fair track this time of the day?

Big fan of HENWOOD (SCRATCHED)but gee he has a task with 58.5kg. Guessing Boss goes back and tries to get him to the middle of the track for the last crack at them. Would love to see him get the cash for the team at www.maluaracing.com.au .

HOSTING was going incredibly well but pulled up sore last time. His best is more than good enough to win.

FELIDEA and STRATIGRAPHY are swoopers who will really want the leaders to go at each other to allow them to get home hard.

SUCH HOPE gets in well at the weights, gets a great run in transit and will look the winner at some stage. He represents some value at $13

Selection:  4- HOSTING

Next Best:    3- THE NEW BOY,  8- SUCH HOPE, 11 – STRATIGRAPHY

 *

*

*

GIBBOS BEST BETS– Melbourne Cup Day:

*BRISBANE Race 6- NO.1  – THE RIGHT ONE

*BRISBANE Race 8 No. 11- PRETTY GULLY

MELBOURNE Race 8 No.3 – RAIN DRUM

The days Best ‘Roughie’-  MELBOURNE Race 2 No.8 - MINNIE DOWNS  (around $13)

*

*

MELBOURNE Quadrella:

5,6,15,16,21 —– 1,2,3,4,5 —– 3,5,6,8,13,15,24 —– 2,3,4,8,11

**Going for small % of a big dividend**

*

‘THE PROPHETS’ best bets

 MELBOURNE RACE 3 – 1 — OPINION

MOUNT ATHOS (CUP)

                       

*Be sure to check back in for any updates from scratchings etc. And as mentioned feel free to send to friends to print out for the day*

GOOD LUCK