Oaks day 2019- Doomben

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It doesn’t get much better punting wise, a good Doomben track with the rail 4.5m which is perfect. It’s all about getting speedmaps right around here and that’s the key to winning on the punt. Some very even races and a couple I’ve been waiting for have drawn poorly unfortunately. All in all a good days racing and quietly confident we should be around the money all day.

updates to come and preview final at 9AM saturday

Good luck and thanks again for checking in.

Race 1: * * *

I know the big G1 is next week but gee you can’t help but feel a few are going to be cannon fodder there and this would have been their race! A few have definitely pulled the wrong rein, this is not a good race and expecting the Sydney horses to dominate.

Who’d have thought a Newcastle maiden would be the key formline but it clearly does look the best form here. Both AUTOCRATIC and SHADOW HERO beat home Prince Fawaz who then come out and beat Reloaded last week. In that race AUTOCRATIC over raced a touch but got the gun run and held them off. SHADOW HERO was on debut (at 1400m) and wide the entire. For that reason I have a slight lean to him with natural improvement but not a lot between them.

FASANO is 1250m to 1630m at 2nd career run but is a blueblood and the debut effort was excellent behind a couple of smart horses in good time. Oliver steers and a good ride could see him win without surprising.

*Feel the visitors have lengths on the locals IMO.

On Top: 7-SHADOW HERO $4

Hardest To Beat: 8-FASANO $8, 4-AUTOCRATIC

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Race 2: * * * *

Wowee, they will go like cut cats here, speed on speed and a battle to find the fence.

I’d have backed DIAMOND THUNDER from a gate, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from here. He is an on pace horse who keeps finding and very brave. Set a crazy tempo in a hot race last start and was still there fighting at the 150m. Just concerned with how much speed is underneath of him.

With all the tempo CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL can take a sit this race and get a suck into the race. She was good enough when posted 4 wide here last start, J Mac also asked her to make a run early and after being posted she then run the 2nd fastest splits from the 800-600 and the 600-400, no wonder she stopped late! You just can’t do that around Doomben and think you’ll have a horse left late. Opened $6 on TAB and was $3 about 3 mins later!

*Having something CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL, was very keen at the $6 and would have made a best bet at that price. Still backing but can’t make a best as no value at the price.

On Top: 10-CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL $2.40

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Race 3: * * *

Tricky sort of race. Forgiving TONSOR the last start and he’s trialled well since to say he’s back to his best. He may be able to find the spot outside leader and even though it’s probably a fair tempo for all horses the two leaders (he and MEET MR TAYLOR) have the most upside and I’d expect both to give very good kicks on a track that suits them. TONSOR’s win here two back by 4L was devastating and Fradd rides again.

FRAGONARD might be over the odds at $16 but happy enough to back TONSOR who still has upside here.

**NOT KEEN now after the scratching. Don’t want to take odds on the fav

On Top: 2-TONSOR $5

Hardest To Beat: 1-MEET MR TAYLOR, 10-FRAGONARD

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Race 4: *

Another race i’d have been a lot keener on had BRAVE SONG drawn a gate, yes he gets back anyway but you’d have loved him to land in front of 3-4. Now probably lands last and not that keen to bet. VIRIDINE draws a better gate and he can now sit a couple of lengths in front of BS. He is back to his best form and deserved fav here. I AM EXCITED and WINTER BRIDE live chances.

*Not that keen on the race to be honest, slow tempo and could get messy for the backmarkers.

On Top: 4-BRAVE SONG $3.60

Hardest To Beat: 1-VIRIDINE

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Race 5: * *

Another race with a very hot tempo and they will be racing to try and cross.

BADAJOZ, PLAGUE STONE, IN GOOD TIME all map to get runs in behind the hot speed and they sill just need luck at the right time to be major players. They are all in good form, PLAGUE STONE comes off a 2nd to Zoustyle and back to this trips suits, they will go hard and that gives him a chance to run over them late.

IN GOOD TIME should probably have won at Listed grade last start, gets a similar run and a chance to atone here. BADAJOZ might not be the best horse but has a good pattern and good gate.

Best of the backmarkers will be EVERYDAY LADY, the hot speed will suit if they ride her cold, the issue is getting that luck from the back around Doomben

*PLAGUE STONE the one too beat but don’t want to take odds on, not sure I bet here.

Selections 11-9-3-8

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Race 6: * * * *

NICCANOVA and SHOGUN SUN both draw poorly! Felt both were placed really well in this race if they could land in the first half of the field but not to be.

$14 was bet NICCANOVA which was a crazy price but quickly into around $10. He is one of the best horses in QLD but he’s had a few issues over time and can draw a bad gate! He has enough speed to be positive but not anywhere near enough to try and sit first couple of pairs. If he finds cover he can beat this lot.

SHOGUN SUN is going as well as he can go, he was a crazy price last start and no doubt should have landed in the money but checked in the straight and that cost him dearly. Goes back again and hopes for a tempo that allows him to run home.

MALVERN ESTATE gets every chance from a good gate and is very consistent, just rekon he’s a length or so short of these.

INTUITION doesn’t have a good record at the trip but looks a better horse this time in work and was strong through the line last start at 1300m. Gets a gun run for J Mac and can trouble them.

SILVERA has ability and off a nice trial could surprise fresh and run into trifecta’s.

*Could back NICCANOVA e/w if $10 or back it and save INTUITION.

Value: 2-NICCANOVA $10  ++ 4-INTUITION $5

Hardest To Beat: 10-SHOGUN SUN

Roughie: 11-SILVERA $21

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Race 7: * * *

A couple come out of the Denise’ joy race at Scone and that looks a handy race. MADAME ROUGE drops 5kg into this and if she can find cover she will again be strong late.

NAANTALI looks to get a really nice run behind the speed and if they don’t go hard might even box seat. Three pairs back might be ideal but Beriman can work that out the first 200m. She might have sat a little close last start in a fast run G1 but this is a huge drop in grade from Pierata and co. With the soft run she can sprint well and be hard to run down.

Fair to say MOONLOVER was going like a busted before the freshen up. Since then has trialled very well and the win at Flemington was excellent. She pushes forward from the wide gate and is the likely leader. Could be hard to catch if she brings her best.

UPDATE: They have said they will be positive on MADAM ROUGE and that puts her right in this race.

*Plenty of others not mentioned but backing NAANTALI and saving on MADAM ROUGE

On Top: 5-NAANTALI $5.50

Hardest To Beat: 16-MADAME ROUGE, 4-MOONLOVER $13, 3-MULTAJA

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Race 8: * *

Very, very even oaks!

Value could be DUCHESS OF LENNOX, she has a horror gate but should be able to find the back of one and creep into it three wide before the corner. She took on the older horses last start and ran fastest 1000-800-600-400-200 of the race and savaged the line. If she gets luck she can run over them. Her race was also run around 0.7 quicker than the fillies race on the same day and fillies race had a track upgrade later also.

PRINCESS JENNI has been flying all prep and good form has come out of the oaks which she was the winner off. Gets a good run midfield and the one to beat. $2.60 short enough though.

ALIFEROUS can’t do much more than she has done this prep, she was terrfic all through the Sydney carnival and brought that form to QLD with a slashing run in the roses. She was best through the line in the lead up so just needs even luck to be a main player.

ANGEL OF HEAVEN, ETANA maybe best of the rest.

*Luck will play a major role here, sure to be hard luck stories.

Value: 16-DUCHESS OF LENNOX $13

Hardest to beat: 2-ALIFEROUS $8, 1-PRINCESS JENNI

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Race 9: * * *

SIXTIES GROOVE is the horse out of the Doomben cup who can sit closer and who would have taken the most improvement from the run. Oliver takes the ride and he can turns the tables on the quinella in out of the cup, he has settled in the first two pairs in lower grade races and blown fields away so expect them to take up a closer spot in running and make the other main chances run him down.

LIFE LESS ORDINARY has been exceptional, he backed up the Hollindale win with a 2nd in the Doomben Cup and had the best late sectionals in that race. KENEDNA has won a couple of G1’s from her last few runs and when a mare is in this form there is no reason why she doesn’t win again.

Track should be firm by now and that will suit SHILLELAGH, have to respect with conditions to suit.

On Top: 6-SIXTIES GROOVE $4.20

Next Best: 2-LIFES LESS ORDINARY, 9-KENEDNA, 8-SHILLELAGH

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GIBBOS BEST:

*Like CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL but no value there now. TONSOR and NAANTALI also look hard to beat but might just put these below as the ‘best value’ for the weekend.

Best e/w

Race 6 No.2-NICCANOVA $9.50/$3.10

Roughie:

Race 8 No.16-DUCHESS OF LENNOX $13

BRISSY QUADDIE:

2-4-10-11 ///// 3-4-5-16 ///// 1-2-16-17 ///// 2-6-8-9

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‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Race 9 No.6- SIXTIES GROOVE $4.40