On ‘THE PUNT’ 20th April

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It’s another big day in Sydney. I have done a Doncaster preview you can find on the front page of the site so it is there for those looking for a steer. I will also add a Sydney quadrella to the preview but will again focus on BRISBANE even though the weather has been showers and rain at times this week. Without rain we may get back to a dead but knowing Eagle Farm  I have done the preview on a SLOW surface.

 

Track: EAGLE FARM

Matt Dunn Racing

Rail- +2.5M from the 1000m-400m, true the remainder.

 

BLACKBOOK runners: I really like the blackbook runners and I’d be surprised if the really good run doesn’t continue today.

April 19 (Friday)
EXOGRAM IPSWICH R7 No.5 (1100m) :

 blackbook


April 20
TAIL AND ALL 
EAGLE FARM R1 No.6 (1400m) :
FANTISHA 
EAGLE FARM R5 No.4 (1600m) :
MARGINS 
EAGLE FARM R6 No.13 (1600m) :
TRANSPORTER 
EAGLE FARM R6 No.6 (1600m) :
METALLURGICAL 
EAGLE FARM R8 No.18 (1200m) :
FLYING JET 
EAGLE FARM R9 No.10 (1200m) :
FLYING RIDDLE 
GOLD COAST R2 No.1 (1200m) :
EXOGRAM 
GOLD COAST R8 No.3 (1200m) :
NORZITA  
RANDWICK R8 No.14 (1600m) :

 

**Prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing**

 

Race 1:

Far from confident here but feel EPIC and TAIL AND ALL are the leading chances.

EPIC $5 was pushed forward last start and looked a different horses. Yes he did get things to suit but he drops 2.5kg, Cahill stays on and he handles all surfaces.

TAIL AND ALL $3.20 is one of the most consistent horses in Brisbane and I think Heathcote will have him cherry ripe for the 2nd up assignment as this pre-carnival time is the right time to strike with a horse like this.

PROST, SKATING AWAY (on the way up), ASSIMILATOR and HEATER are the others I will look at for exotics.

*Just leaning EPIC at the e/w odds.

On Top: 4- EPIC

Hardest To Beat: 6- TAIL AND ALL

 

 

Race 2:

The blinkers will come off EPIC TERRA but will that be enough to stop it over racing? Probably not but it is more than good enough to win again here. It hasn’t missed a place in all 8 runs this prep.

ALCANCIA also very consistent but does take on the boys again here and goes up 1kg on last run.

CAELLUM is a hard one to catch. He always runs well and it looks as though you have to get on him next start, but he has only won 2 of 13 and has 9 placings! I am going to fall for him again however as his last run was so good. From gate 3 he shouldn’t get so far back.

TRAGEDY was very good last start, while ANAGOLD may be over the odds at $17 and worth thought’s for tri’s etc.

*$4.50 looks the right price for CAELLUM

On Top: 5-CAELLUM

Hardest To Beat: 1- EPIC TERRA, 4-ALCANCIA

 

topline

 

Race 3:

Very very tough.. OCTANE FLYER has class but drops back to 1000m with 58.5kg?

LONDAHERO very classy, been gelded but has horror gate?

VIENNA QUEEN looked good winning 1st up, can she go on with it?

Many unraced..

 

*Happy to watch on …

 

Race 4:

DAZZLE US looks for the hat-trick but this is harder than his last couple. The drop in weight is a plus but I think he deserves to be a better price than $5?

PIRATE BAY is also accepted in Sydney but is more than capable of winning here 3rd up at the right trip. Respect if he runs here. (UPDATE- Not running)

MUKADDAMAH SON is a horse I think does its best for D.Browne and although he has Cahill today who is our best I do think it is a query and not much value at $7.

Although VOLKHERE is $4 fav and I would rather value he looks the one and I thought he would be shorter. Handles the sting out and is looking for this trip again. Colless just needs to find a nice spot from the gate with cover and he is the horse they have to beat.

MARKOUT $6 is as tough as old boots and will stick around like the mother-in-law.!

On Top: 9- VOLKHERE

Hardest To Beat: 8- MARKOUT,

 

 

Race 5:

Again the market looks right with DISCREET on top. At the set weights you would think she was nearly a ‘good thing’ but she does get back in her races and that is the question. She will need some luck but over the 1600m from the good gate she should be able to sit midfield.

I have a lot of time for VIS A TERGO and no doubt she will improve off this again but she meets DISCREET 3kg worse off for being beaten 2L which is a huge task.

There are a heap of rough chances at big odds. A couple that would love a SLOW track are OFFENSE $35 and SPARKLING SOUND $13 who I think may be pretty handy and should be very strong late.

TAYA for Gerald Ryan will find plenty of support and you can make a case for FANTISHA getting out to the 1600m, and CATALONIA who I think is very underrated and is some value for tri’s at $15

*Fav looks obvious but she won’t want to get too far back.

 

On Top: 1- DISCREET

Others:  13- VIS A TERGO,  10-SPARKLING SOUND,  5- CATALONIA

 

Race 6:

TRANSPORTER comes off a 5.8L win and drops 1kg into this. He is a horse that holds his form once he strikes it so he will obviously be the horse to beat again.

MARGINS is a horse I have a lot of time for and happy to lean his way at the $4.60. I think he can track TRANSPORTER here and peel off his back. They really do look the two.

HOUR OF PERIL (wetter the better) and POST RESTANTE are the best of the rest but they will need some pace on and they may not go along fast enough for them.

 

On Top:  13- MARGINS

Hardest To Beat:  6- TRANSPORTER

 

 

Race 7:

Short and sweet. BETTER THAN READY is a genuine Group 1 horse. He does drop back to the 1000m off a freshen up but with the good gate on a track that suits and at set weights I would be shocked if he was beaten..

Outside of him there is value everywhere for trifecta’s but I won’t be bothering.

On Top: 1- BETTER THAN READY

 

 

Race 8:

Track surface a big ? Do we get back to a dead surface by this time with a couple of fine drying days? If it was Doomben I’d be confident, EF not so much…

They should go very hard and I expect AUDACIOUS SPIRIT to be one of the best on-pacers. He flies fresh and from the good gate can get his spot without using a hell of a lot of gas.

RIVER LAD is in career best form and there is no doubt he can win again. The 58kg will make it tough, but he is only 2kg over the minimum. He actually meets a couple down the bottom of the weights better for beating them..

SIGNIFIED gets the charmed run behind the speed and gets all the favours. He will look the winner and only has to have taken some improvement from last run to be a major factor.

FAMOUS SEAMUS comes up from Sydney. He was beaten 0.5L in a Listed race two starts ago and then 2.1L in the G2 Ajax over 1500m. The drop back to 1200m looks  the main question but he does seem to continue improving.

I’ve landed on METALLUGICAL again at the $9. He does want the track to dry out and his record on a dead surface is outstanding. EF is his track as he has only missed a place once in 8 starts here.

*Very open race but I’d be happy with win bets on METALLURGICAL and SIGNIFIED.

On Top: 18- METALLURGICAL $9  +  19- SIGNIFIED $8

 

 

Race 9:

If the track has dried out the top weight FUNTANTES comes right into this. She would be likely to push forward and she is a superior fresh horse.

ALLTHERIGHTMOVES last run was better than it looks on paper, she handles all conditions and I’m sure B.Stewart won’t let her get too far back against these mares.

FIRE UP FIFI has improved every prep, I think she may need the run but hard to knock class.

Heathcotes 3rd runner HIDDEN KISSES is the smoky at $26 carrying the 54kg. She is better than that suggests and she does race well fresh. From gate 3 she can sit just off them a few pairs back and get every chance.

EVER THE SAME has raced in ‘blacktype’ races for a long time and this is the perfect race for her to stand up.

I think there will be a flood of  $$ for EMMALENE with the good gate and on the back-up from her unlucky run in Sydney last week. She is well above average but it is hard to guide if the travel has taken anything out of her? Or has it switched her on?

Many more chances with FLYING JET being a blackbook runner and early money for PUNCH ON?

 

*Just think it is that even of a race I will finish looking for some good value.

 

On Top: 8- HIDDEN KISSES  @  $26

 

 

Dollar

GIBBO’S BEST BETS:

Not keen to tip the real short ones straight out, but worth a look at the allup.

Brisbane Race 4 No.9 VOLKHERE

 

This week best Longshot – Brisbane Race 9 No.8 HIDDEN KISSES

 

Best ALLUP-

(Bris) BETTER THAN READY + (Melb) ELITE ELLE + (Melb) CLUB COMMAND

@ about $10.50

**Remember to check in after 9am Saturday morning for changes to quadrellas after scratchings.

Brisbane Quadrella:

6,13 —-  1 —– 2,7,9,12,18,19 —– 1,4,5,6,8,10            guide-     $72  =  100%

 

Sydney Quadrella:

1,3,4,5 —— 2,5 —— 1,2,3,8,14,18 ——-4,8,12,15,18            

 

 

THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS

 

SYDNEY Race 9 No.18 SECESSIO (around the $31)

MELBOYRNE Race 7 No.7 UNION GAP

 

TattsBet

 

TATTS JACKPOTS + MARKET MOVERS!!

EAGLE FARM

5/1 Discreet $3.2/$2.8

6/13 Margins $5.0/$4.6

 

RANDWICK

4/4 Limes $8.5/$7.5

6/9 Maules Creek $26.0/$18.0

7/7 Summerbliss $13.0/$12.0

8/11 Appearance $13.0/$9.0

 

CAULFIELD

6/6 Speediness $10.0/$8.5

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

forSaturday, 20 April 2013

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
TF RANDWICK (SR) 8 $97,975 DONCASTER MILE
TT MORPHETTVILLE (AR) - $11,058 RACES 6, 7 & 8
         

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 5 $2,000 CORDINA FARMS SPRINT
F4 PT PIRIE (AT) 6 $2,000 PT PIRIE CUP
TF ALBION PARK (BT) 1 $40,000 M2 TO M3
TF PT PIRIE (AT) 1 $20,000 C3 TO C5

 

 

 

Thanks for checking in, bet responsibly and have a great weekend!!