On ‘THE PUNT’ August 31st- DOOMBEN

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

I can’t say I was wrapped with a Good 2 surface last week. Each to their own and there are supporters for hard fast tracks, but in my opinion we have a duty to make tracks safe and to me Good 2 is not that. Unfortunately Latin News broke down and I’m certain there would have been a lot of sore horses on Sunday. With the forecast perfect and sunshine predicted every day I am sure watering will be heavier this week and I’d be blown away if another hard, fast track was delivered as many trainers would probably scratch. I’m not having a go at the club I think it should be that way Australia wide, when the forecast is fine and no chance of rain then watering should be heavy enough to start on a Dead 4.

I always loved the quote from Dermot Weld when he thought there was more watering to the roses at Flemington than the track and he said something like- You should be more worried about Horse Culture, not Horticulture…

It’s a very good point, lets race on surfaces that help keep our animals sound.

*Now let’s get down to business. This meeting is incredibly even and I have to admit nailing a few specials looks very difficult. With the hard and fast track it was hard to run down front runners last week so it will be interesting to see what DOOMBEN holds for us today. Unfortunately I’m doing this earlier in the week and can’t guess how the track will play, but let’s just say I would probably like to be in a forward position if possible with the Rail out 6M.

 

TRACK—DOOMBEN

RAIL–   +6m

Surface- Good 3? blackbook

 

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS:

SATURDAY, 31 AUGUST 2013
Spirit Of Heaven – Caulfield R1 No.1 (1400m):
Bribie – Doomben R6 No.2 (1200m):
Epic Terra – Doomben R7 No.8 (1640m):
Olympic Anthem – Doomben R8 No.3 (1350m):
Marden – Rosehill R4 No.1 (2400m):
Into The Red – Rosehill R6 No.10 (1200m):

 

 

 

**Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing and this is simply my take on the races, make of it what you will. Bet responsibly and have a great weekend!

**I will kick off with my DOUBLE TRIO numbers for MELBOURNE this weekend:

 4,6,10,11,17 +  1,4,5,9,13,14

 

 

Race 1:

Looks a race in two but barriers at this starting point is crucial and both have drawn double figures. For that reason I am a little wary, but QFIGHTER and SHAZZLE PAZZLE have a class edge. QFIGHTER will almost definitely go back and spot them a start while SHAZZLE PAZZLE may be caught wide?

I find it hard to find many capable of beating them but LOVE ROCKS is drawn well and may be competitive.

**Clear top picks but gates do dampen the confidence a bit.

On Top:  10- SHAZZLE PAZZLE  +  6- QFIGHTER

 

 

Race 2:

I thought this was a ‘gimme’ for WHITLAM but they have scratched.

Really not interested here. Hard to line up fresh horses, others well into their prep and KOLONGA new on the scene….

*Happy to watch on.

 

 

Race 3:

You’d expect the market to be right here and VOLKHERE and MISHANI WARRIOR (the sites fav horse!) to fight it out. We have been on MISHANI WARRIOR three straight at around $8 so why jump off.

VOLKHERE more than capable of turning the tables if MISHANI WARRIOR finds trouble from gate 1, but 1400m at E-F may have been what he was looking for now (not that there is a race around).

On Top:  1- MISHANI WARRIOR

Hardest To Beat: 3- VOLKHERE

Matt Dunn Racing

 

 

 

Race 4:

HEART OF MANY had no luck posted wide two runs back but when it got cover last start I really liked the way it sprinted and attacked the line. Same scenario here from the good gate and this does look a good bet.

Biggest danger could be GOT UNDERS who drew wide in that race and Colless had to push the button early to cross. The horse still fought well to only be beaten 2L. He gets a 1kg turnaround on HEART OF MANY in his favour here.

KISS ME DEADLY ready to show best form but would rather a dead track?

Many others with some hope but more than happy to work around top 2 selections.

On Top:  7- HEART OF MANY

Hardest To Beat:  10- GOT UNDERS

 

 

Race 5:

FLYING HOME looks well placed and should win, but I can’t be backing it at the price. Surely they don’t let Munce dictate in front this time? I think he’s a decent horse but they seem to take turns in these races and I’m going to be going wide in the quaddie, but will include him.

After saying that, what else wins?? Good question!

MUKADDAMAH SON will like the fact there is more tempo engaged. He is my on top selection but I can’t say I’m overly confident. He goes extremely well for Browne and should get a decent run from the gate and he has only missed a place once from his 8 runs here.

I could go through every runner and give them a chance and I couldn’t knock people taking ‘field’ in the quaddie through pure confusion.

(I wish this wasn’t a quaddie leg)

On Top:  2- MUKADAMMAH SON

MaluaRacing...

 

 

 

Race 6:

A really good and competitive 1200m benchmark 85.

5,7,8,10 all go forward making it a good tempo. FALINO is a very good horse and gets weight relief with the claim. From the good gate he shouldn’t have to get too far back and should be hard to toss 2nd up.

REGULAR drops back to the 1200m and I think that is a good thing. He deserves a win and has become a very consistent horse this time in.

HLUDWIG and BRIBIE are get back horses who are flying at present, while TOMS LUCK and THE STOREMAN come off very impressive wins!

Add CONGO to the list and this is the race of the day.

**Luck in running will decide this race**

*Just leaning to FALINO with a bit of class and at the $12+ value.

Value:  1- FALINO $12

pineapple

 

 

 

 

Race 7:

The theme of the day continues with another very even, very open betting race. CUDDLESOME will start a short fav and her last win was breathtaking. She can win without surprise, but up to 1640m and taking on the males is a different task. There is a heap of pace here and will need luck from gate 1 to not get caught up. She may be a touch under the odds in early markets.

So much pace engaged, EPIC TERRA, ROCK HOME LATE, DOUBLE IMPACT and EQUISSENTIAL all go hard early from this starting point and this should be a very genuine affair. For that reason I’m happy to think FERMENT will be strong late and get his chance to run over them. Should be around $6-7 and that’s a fair price.

NOISY OCEAN was a real improver last time out and a repeat sees him a live chance. EPIC TERRA is fitter for two runs back and DOUBLE IMPACT in career best form. ROCK HOME LATE not the worst but gate tricky for him.

On Top:   3- FERMENT

Hardest To Beat: 10- NOISY OCEAN, 5- CUDDLESOME

 

 

Race 8:

No Doubt in my mind OLYMPIC ANTHEM is the best horse in this race but do they change tactics and push forward? Or the more likely scenario of trying to take a sit midfield. That is dangerous here with rail out and a hard fast track. She may be good enough to spot them a start and run over them easily but there is a hurdle or two too overcome…

KALA’S BELLE will be the underrated horse. She ran good time on the day at the coast but looked to have another gear up the sleeve. On pace and gate 1 should be a real advantage by this time of the day. Around the $7 mark she represents some value for those going wider in quaddies.

TORNADO MISS is on the rise and should also roll forward and be strong late. The 300m drop in trip is a little issue but she is going good.

VOODOO BLUE MAGIC best of the rest in my opinion, and BODEGRA NEGRA a chance for first 4’s.

On Top: 3- OLYMPIC ANTHEM

Others: 2- KALA’S BELLE, 4- TORNADO MISS, 1- VOODOO BLUE MAGIC

tattsbet

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 4 No.7 HEART OF MANY

 

This weeks ‘longshot’ = Syd Race 8- GREY ASSIGNMENT  $20

 

A ‘Shorties’ allup- (Around the $9 mark)

KUKLA (Adl rc 8)  +

SPIRIT OF HEAVEN (Melb Race.1) +

VAIN QUEEN (Melb Race 2)

 

BRISBANE Quadrella:
Going against what I usually would and going very wide. I’m not convinced with a few fav’s so this Quaddie may not be everyone’s cup of tea. I will add a shorter one for those looking for a cheaper option.

WIDE-  1,2,3,4,5,6,7 — 1,2,4,8,11 —- 3,5,6,8,10 —- 2,3,4     guide   $79 = 15%

SKINNY-   1,2,3,5  —- 1,2,4  —- 3,5  —- 2,3,4        guide $72  =  100%

 

Melbourne Quad:

4,6,9 —- 1,2,3,7,9,10 —- 6  —- 1,5,9,14

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

Sydney Race 8 No.6- GREY ASSIGNMENT  $21

Brisbane Race 5 No.3- SPECHENKA  $13

 

Tatts

 

TATTS JACKPOTS and MARKET MOVERS:Tatts Double Trio

**Carryover Jackpot FIRST 4’s on all races in Brisbane and Adelaide**

 

DOOMBEN

8/11 Bodega Negra $19/$14

 

ROSEHILL

1/9 One Step Beyond $15/$13

5/4 Choice Bro $18/$13

6/11 Napayshini $9.5/$8.5

7/1 Brave Soul $5.5/$4.4

8/6 Grey Assignment $16/$11

 

CAULFIELD

4/1 Miracles Of Life $3.0/$2.6

6/7 Pocket Rockets $13/$9

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 31 August 2013

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

DOOMBEN (BR)

ALL

$10,000

RACES 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8

F4

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

ALL

$10,000

RACES 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$5,000

RISING STARS C’SHIP FINAL

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

5

$1,000

SPRING C’SHIP FINAL

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

7

$1,000

SPRING CUP

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$7,705

RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

TT

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

-

$7,003

RACES 4, 5 & 6

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

THE GARDENS (CG)

5

$1,000

BLACK TOP FINAL