On ‘The Punt’ BTC cup day

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EAGLE FARM is where we head to this weekend. We come off a very nice weekend with both quaddies saluting and it is not a coincidence that we had a good track to deal with, it makes punting a lot easier. Showers have been about this week but the track should play well.

*For those new to the site this is simply my take on the Brisbane meeting. You can make what you like of the information. Feel free to pass onto friends or print off if you are heading to the track or pub.

**This is posted Friday morning this week but will be updated after 8.30am Saturday so be sure to check in as selections ans quadrella’s can change with scratching’s as races can change dramatically.

*For those on Facebook we are running a little comp this week thanks to the Pineapple hotel so check us out there.

You can here an interview at www.helter-skelter.com.au which should be up late friday night/saturday morning.

Track- EAGLE FARM

Rating- (Showers predicted but track should be good, maybe dead at worst)

Rail- TRUE

 

Blackbookers:blackbook

May 11
VO HEART EAGLE FARM R2 No.5 (1200m) : I like this horse and he will run well.
DOLLY DOLLY  EAGLE FARM R6 No.11 (2100m) :
SEA SIREN EAGLE FARM R7 No.10 (1200m) : The one who can be hardest to beat for Buffering.
THE HUNTRESS MORPHETTVILLE R1 No.2 (1200m) : Very hard to beat.
EPINGLE  MORPHETTVILLE R4 No.6 (2009m) : Nice race for her.
KARACATIS MORPHETTVILLE R7 No.15 (1200m) : Up in grade a question?

 

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

 

Race 1:

A good race to kick the day off. Heathcote holds the key with a few nice horses. Pretty confident EXCELLANTES has a bit of class on these and the 59kg is his biggest obstacle, although weight is not as important over the 1000m. I thought his 1st up run was more than ok at Listed level out of gate 17, first up at 1200m. This is a big drop in grade, I expect him to sit handy and go for home on straightening.

GRIFFON is a little unknown 300 days between runs, I guess the money will tell the story there. Browne is on this horse instead of EXCELLANTES and I am not sure if he had the choice of ride or not. If the pace is on he can win.

I’M COOL just very hard to get a guide on lately and gate 11 no help.

HALLE ROCKS is the Price trained galloper who creates interest. She is a lightly raced Fastnet Rock mare who comes of a decent 1000m placing at Caulfield in an 89 rating race. Again I would be respecting any money.

*Around $7-8 in early markets was offered and that was crazy shopping for Excellantes in my mind.

 

On Top: 1- EXCELLANTES

 

 

Race 2:

Looks like only a moderate tempo.

A few nice Sydney horses heading up here but OCTANE FLYER is well placed again and the weight scale suits. McMahon gets a nice run from (8) and I’d expect him to hit the line hard late. He was dominant last start and drops 1.5kg on that win. This is harder but the step to 1200m is a positive. I can’t find a reason not to take the $7 e/w.

HOOKED 2 from 2 and will obviously be well in the market again but I personally like OCTANE FLYER of the local group more.

ARCHITECT is a hard horse to catch but at his best he is more than capable.

VILANOVA for Waller must be respected, while Browne will really suit the style of BOUND FOR EARTH who is well bred and comes off a nice debut run.

MISS SUNSET gets the blinkers 1st time and at $20-30 may be worth thoughts for trifecta’s.

I don’t know a lot about INTO THE RED but it is from an incredible stable with the top jock engaged and well in the market so follow any leads…

 

On Top:  1- OCTANE FLYER e/w

 

 

 

Race 3:

HIDDEN KISSES will start fav. She is a classy mare and will be hard to beat but I am just looking away from her on this occasion. She was good 1st up and does meet a couple better at the weights for beating them last start so she is easy to make a case for.

There is not a lot of pace here with all the main chances having patterns of getting back. Of course they can change tactics but it makes it a very tricky race to have a punt in. I think ALCANCIA is able to sit in the first 5-6 in running from the good gate. She is in-form and her run last week was outstanding and the back-up is about the only question.

FLYING JET and SHOW AFFECTION are get back horses which is an issue but both have more than enough quality to win with some breaks in running but pace is the issue.

CUDDLESOME may be the other chance to push forward from the gate. Her run 1st up was terrific and she does have a good 2nd up record. If she can get a spot in the first 4 in running cheaply she will give a very good sight at around $7.

**Very even race and not one I’m too keen to play in. Money may again tell a story here.

*Happy to wait till closer but 6-CUDDLESOME and 9-ALCANCIA interest me..

 

Topline

 

Race 4:

15 horses with about 10 different form-lines.. Oh and throw in some kiwi’s!

I can’t believe I am saying but the best of the locals looks to be VACALLO $13. He always seemed very limited and a midweek type of horse but has matured into a decent horse this prep. The big track suits, down to 55kg suits and I like the Alcancia and Epic form. At double figure odds he looks value.

WATERFORD is G1 placed in NZ and is well above average. She is obviously the one to beat but she can do a few little things wrong in her races and she will need to be at her best from gate 15.

LESS IS MORE has been competing in G3’s and Listed races in Syd and running pretty well. Drops back to a benchmark 85, Robl stays on and he will take a stack of beating. He may want further than the 1600m now, but the roomy track and his class should see him right in the finish.

VIKING HEART gets a cheap run and always runs well in these type of races.

*Happy to think VACALLO, WATERFORD and LESS IS MORE have it between them.

 

On Top: 10- VACALLO   +  4- LESS IS MORE

Hardest To Beat: 12- WATERFORD

 

 

 

Race 5:   Start of a $94,000 Jackpot Quaddie on www.tatts.com

There is always a question as to how a horse has travelled, but if SURVIVED has settled in well I’m not sure how they can beat him? My main query is the fact he still seems to be learning and heading the clockwise direction may not be perfect? He looks an outstanding prospect and his last few NZ win have been breathtaking!

The forgotten horse at $13 is LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY whose run behind Proverb was terrific. There is a real sense of timing about this bloke and even with the bad gate which means he may need a touch of luck in running he is a must for exotic bets.

USANITY ran 2nd to SURVIVED in NZ and then won the G3 Packer Plate in Syd over the carnival. It looks a case of the further the better for him and he will stick around like the mother-in-law!

HAWKSPUR and HONORIUS come out of the Packer as well and must be respected while MISHANI STEALTH may be the best of the locals at this stage.

Not sure what to make of TONOPAH but for that reason should be respected in first 4’s etc.

*looks SURVIVED but there are some nice up and comers here including LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY.

On Top:  7-SURVIVED

Value:  9- LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY

 

 

Matt Dunn Racing

Race 6:

This is the doozy leg of the quad… Or possibly is anyway. Very, very even.

No break neck speed but the big field should at least generate a fair clip. There are a few that will struggle and be falling back on horses come the straight so luck will play a big part.

Gee I was impressed by MARGINS last start and I have been waiting a long time for him to be healthy this far into a prep. Ben Currie has done a great job and he will be competitive here dropping 3.5kg off that Listed win!

SYSMO is where I have landed at the $6.50. He will relish the big EF track. Forget last start when he was 1580-2000m on a heavy track. Form before that was very good and I think this is a great race for him. Gets a cheap run from 6 and Colless can save him up for one run at them.

QUINTESSENTIAL looks to be back to her best and that would be more than competitive here. Browne goes on and the weight is the only question.

DOLLY DOLLY gets back to a suitable trip and her run when 3rd in the G3 Epona in Sydney would have her right in the finish.

Many chances and I wouldn’t talk you out of any!

 

On Top:  14-SYSMO

Hardest To Beat:  8- MARGINS,  11-DOLLY DOLLY, 3-QUINTESSENTIAL

 

 

 

Race 7:

I think the best sprinter in the land is now BUFFERING so I can’t go past him and the $2.70 looks generous. He was awesome 1st up running great time and you can make a case that he actually goes better 2nd up. Most have him sitting outside RAIN AFFAIR here and that would be a good scenario but do not be surprised if Browne pushes the button and he heads RAIN AFFAIR.

SEA SIREN gets the run of the race and stalks them two. Remember O’Shea has said all along she was nowhere near as forward as other preps. Her last run was an improvement and I have no doubt she improves again here.

They are the main chances in my eyes but keen to see if SPIRIT OF BOOM improves and there are a couple of smart 3yr olds in YOUR SONG, BETTER THAN READY and REFLECTANCE but it’s not the perfect scenario this time of year at WFA for them as they only get 1.5kg off the tough old heads like BUFFERING.

There is some rain about and if it continues TEMPLE OF BOOM will come into this race, respect if Dead 5 or worst. One for trifecta’s if that’s the case.

 

On Top:  1-BUFFERING

 

pineapple

 

Race 8:

As crazy as it sounds I am looking forward to this race more than any. Really interested to see how a few of these return. Again not much pace on paper but the big field over 1200m should create a good tempo. A stack of very good get back horses resuming- LONGSHOREMAN, SOMEDAY, HEZA JETSETTER and SOOKIE to name a few. Do they get too far back? Who gets the right run? Both good questions…

I think of the favoured runners SOOKIE can sit the closest, get a cheap run and if she kicks with 52.5kg she will be very hard to run down. She did run early but is out of an Encosta De Lago mare and I have a feeling she may well be still on the improve.

SOMEDAY is probably the best Falvelon getting around and we still haven’t got anywhere near the bottom of him. He has bigger fish to fry over the carnival but he will have to get back and Munce will probably look for cover 3 wide. If he gets that he can win but will be better again for the run and 1400m may be perfect.

HEZA JETSETTER with 54.5kg is capable of spotting them all a start and giving them a fright. Knowing Heathcote’s horses I’d be surprised if they didn’t just drop him out and give him one crack at them late to see what he’s got. No need busting him fresh as he is a carnival prospect.

LONGSHOREMAN probably gets in ok with 57.5kg and he doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Any rain would help but he runs well on all ground as his record shows (won or placed in 10 of 13).

QUARTERLY sat too close last start and from the good gate he can sit 6-7th and has the ability to measure up for sure.

I have BRIBIE as simply a dry track 1200m horse and when he runs at that he is competitive. Not in the same league as his brother Woorim but he is more than capable of sitting I the first half of the field and running well if he gains a start. (he has got a start)

MISHANI WARRIOR no luck in an easier race 1st up but does have talent.

*Really hard to split them. Simply putting Sookie on top from the good gate and light weight coming off a nice trial.

On Top:   16-SOOKIE

Others:  6-SOMEDAY,  2-LONGSHOREMAN,  10-HEZA JETSETTER

 

 

GIBBO’S BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 7 No.1 BUFFERING

Each-way- Brisbane Race 1 No.1 EXCELLANTES

 

This week’s best ‘Longshot’- Not exactly a big priced one but Rc 5 No.9 LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY value around $13 and may even start longer on the day.

 

BRISBANE QUADRELLA:

1,3,7,9 —- 3,7,8,10,11,12,14 —-  1  —- 2,6,12,16,18,19

 

‘THE PROPHET’S’ BEST BETS

Sydney Race 7 No.12 EUCUMBENE

Sydney Race 8 No.11 HAPPY HUSSY

TattsBet

TATTS Jackpots and Market Movers:

Saturday Jackpots
First4 Morphettville (AR) race 7 carryover pool $50,000
Quadrella Eagle Farm (BR) races 5,6,7,8 carryover pool $94,794
Quadrella Albion Park (BT) races 2,3,4,5 carryover pool $37,527
Treble Globe Derby (AT) races 4,5,6 carryover pool $5,052

Race                Runner                 Opened                     Now
Eagle Farm2  Miss Sunset              $35.0            $21.0
Eagle Farm5  Tonopah                  $13.0             $11.0
Eagle Farm6  Sysmo                       $6.5                $5.0
Eagle Farm7  Rain Affair              $6.0                $4.5
Eagle Farm8  Doubtfilly                $17.0             $15.0
Eagle Farm8  Sookie                       $5.0               $4.6

Rosehill 7  Renewed Vitality       $21.0           $17.0

Caulfield 6  Ava’s Delight              $4.2                $3.5

Morphettville 1  Vivi Veloce          $11.0           $10.0
Morphettville 7  Facile Tigre        $8.0              $7.5
Morphettville 8  Tariana                  $5.0            $4.0