On ‘The Punt’ Caulfield Cup day!

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The Punt section again will focus on the major Melbourne races- CAULFIELD:

RAIL= +6m

Track Rating= (Should be a good surface)

 

**The prices stated are www.tatts.com prices at the time of typing, and these are simply my views on the races. You can do what you wish with the information.

Good luck!

 

Blackbookers:

October 20
FULL OF SPIRIT CAULFIELD R5 No.12 (1400m)-May be looking for further?
ALCOPOP CAULFIELD R8 No.15 (2400m)-Good value in open race.
MOSHEEN CAULFIELD R9 No.1 (1400m)-Looks one of the best bets.
CAELLUM  EAGLE FARM R6 No.9 (1500m)- Should go well. Hard to beat.
PLAYACTION EAGLE FARM R7 No.7 (1820m)-Open race.
BETTER THAN READY RANDWICK R5 No.3 (1200m)-Like his chances at good odds.
DARE TO DREAM  RANDWICK R6 No.7 (2400m)-Should stamp himself as Bart’s best Cup chance!

 

 

 

Race 1:

PACE-  Don’t have a lot of pace here and I think that plays into the leaders hands.

 

Because of the pace A TIME FOR JULIA is the way I’m gonna kick the day off. She comes out of a decent race and gets a lovely run for Nolen.

VILLA SPLENDIDO has run in some really nice races in tougher opposition and is back to fillies grade.

THUNDER RAIN the best of the rest and worth thoughts in a quinella with the other two mentioned.

 

 

 

ON TOP-   5- A TIME FOR JULIA

Hardest To Beat: 1-VILLA SPLENDIDO, 4-THUNDER RAIN

 

 

Race 2:

PACE-  N/A

This is simply a race I haven’t had a lot of time to spend on and I will be staying out. We will know more about a few of these after the race and I think there are better betting races.

 

ON TOP-

Race 3:

PACE- Small field and doesn’t look a lot of pace but they usually give each horse a chance to win over this trip.

 

A really even race and hard to split a few of them.

KABAYAN (The Prophet’s tip) would be my top pick at level weights and at Flemington, but I just didn’t like the way he wobbled around Caulfield last time he was here. If Nash can nurse him around the bend (gate 1 will help) he is still the one to beat.

JIMANDO was good on pace last start and fought like a horse wanting further. This is suitable and Williams on board.

PHILLIPI (SCRATCHED)was very good late running over the top of HVASSTAN. I think the same can happen here and they both have good chances in a tight race.

ELECTRIC FUSION was very impressive in a FAR easier race last start. I’d throw him in some exotic bets.

 

 

ON TOP-    –  1-KABAYAN, 2-JIMANDO, 5-HVASSTAN

 

 

Race 4:

PACE- Not a heap of pace but I’m sure a few of these fillies will try to make it a staying test at some stage allowing all horses their chance.

 

Hard to split a few of these but you’d expect the G2 Manifold should be the best form seeing as the Thousand Guineas winner come out of that race. CAMEO was 1L away from Commanding jewel and has to go on top.

There are two others that I would play around with in Quinella’s etc.- SUMMERBLISS who won her debut easily, KEEP DE ROSE who will love getting to 2000m, and ZUCCOTTO for Guy Walter who knows how to place a good filly better than anyone!

There are more chances, but I’m focused on the four mentioned.

 

 

 

ON TOP-   3-CAMEO

Hardest To Beat: 12-SUMMERBLISS, 9-KEEP DE ROSE

 

 

 

Race 5:

PACE- Decent speed giving each horse an opportunity.

 

KING’S ROSE is a genuine Group 1 mare and she is well placed here after a great run 1st up. I think the $2.80 is too short currently, but she is the horse to beat.

GALAH $7.50 and STRIKE THE STARS $19 are both well above average and you can expect sharp improvement from their fresh runs.

HAPPY ZERO should get a good run in the race and is in well at the weights.

FULL OF SPIRIT will have admirers but will need a huge performance from the gate.

RENEWED VITALITY $16 may be the best roughie in the race. Two starts 3rd up for a win and a 2nd. Beaten 2L at WFA behind Red Tracer last start and drops 5kg into this.

 

 

ON TOP-    5-KING’S ROSE

Others: 4-GALAH, 11-RENEWED VITALITY, 3-STRIKE THE STARS

 

Race 6:

PACE-  CANALI should lead with HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME and a decent tempo should be set.

 

HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME will be the spruik horse and if he is Salinger bound you’d want him to stand up here. This is however his biggest task to date.

I’m happy to lean THANKGODYOU’REHERE after a great run behind Buffering which is obviously the best form. He didn’t handle MV very well and hopefully he gets around Caulfield a bit better. He can camp just behind the leaders here and I think he can peel of their backs and win. I like the $4.20 he opened on www.tatts.com .

MID SUMMER MUSIC and GREEN BIRDIE interest me in trifecta’s etc and they will be hitting the line hard late.

 

 

ON TOP-       3-THANKGODYOU’REHERE

Hardest To Beat: 7-HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME, 2-GREEN BIRDIE, 1-MID SUMMER MUSIC

 

 

Race 7:

PACE- Not a lot of pace and it may pay to be near the front.

 

*A tricky race to work out. A slow pace may open this up to being a blowout result.

On form you’d expect MAULES CREEK, PRARIE STAR and the improving LIGHTINTHENITE to be the main players and I think they should fight it out.

LIGHTINTHENIGHT was excellent in the Epsom and steps to 2000m for the first time. I think he will be better for the outing, but he is the horse on the upward spiral and must be respected.

This looks a slightly easier affair for MAULES CREEK who ran in the Craven Plate (which I think will stand up as a great form race this year Mourayan, Dare To dream etc). He ran ok there and drops from 59kg WFA to 54.5kg here. He is the top rater and $7.50 gets me interested.

Like a broken record I will say it again- The overseas horses are simply superior over a staying trip. That is why PRARIE STAR must go in. The downside id 2000m may be too short, but he has form around all the other internationals and beat Joshua Tree, Tac De Boistren and Brigantin in his last three runs!

 

 

ON TOP-   6-MAULES CREEK e/w

Hardest To Beat: 1-PRARIE STAR, 5-LIGHTINTHENITE

 

Race 8:

PACE- Plenty of pace here! VOILA ICI and GLENCADAM GOLD both have to cross from very wide gates. Surely a few inside them make them work for it? It sounds simple, but I think you’d be looking for a horse getting a nice run midfield with cover.

 

GLENCADAM GOLD is the big question? He does look a one trick pony, but is he one right out of the box? He has had it his own way in most his starts where he has remained unbeaten, but at the same time he has always looked to have another gear and nothing has ever looked like getting past him. Personally I think Cassidy will sit on VOILA ICI’s shoulder until the back turn where he will then take over and get the horse to relax. It’s then we see what GLENCADAM GOLD is made of.

ALCOPOP has run one of the best lead up race into this. Beaten a neck by the Cox plate 3rd favourite at WFA and drops 6.5kg into the handicap. He loves this track and peaks in OCT every year. He must be respected and looks the best roughie in the race to me.

DECEMBER DRAW and LIGHTS OF HEAVEN have both been set for this, both peak here and both get lovely runs just behind the pace. That is why the money is coming for them and they will run well.

DUNADEN will require the pace to be hot to string the field out and give him a chance to get cover. If that is the case he is simply better than these and can run over the top of them. 58kg is a terrific weight for him and not a concern at all. AMERICAIN may be better suited at Flemington over 3200m and with some sting out of the track, but is also in well at the weights.

JAKKALBERRY gets a hard surface that would suit and from the replays I’ve done I think he goes far better the anti-clockwise direction which is another tick!

 

 

ON TOP-   15-ALCOPOP

Others for first 4’s-  

12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 9-GLENCADAM GOLD, 2-DUNADEN, 5-DECEMBER DRAW, 3-JAKKALBERRY

 

 

 

                                                                RACE 9:

PACE:    Just an even pace and I think the on pacers may be favoured.

 

MOSHEEN was outstanding last start and I simply expect her to improve again.

STREAMA seems a silly price around $8 and can roll these without any surprise if she is wound up.

RED TRACER looks to have come back a treat. Some feel she is a wet tracker, but she can win on a good surface impressively like she did 1st up. APPEARANCE, SHANARA, SOFT SAND and LUCKY PENNY probably the best of the rest, but they have to beat the big guns!

 

 

ON TOP:      1-MOSHEEN

Others:   2-STREAMA, 4-RED TRACER, 8-APPEARANCE

 

 

 

 

                                                                     RACE 10:

PACE: There is speed to burn here! Usually it would be a race to favour back markers, but it can be hard to reel in the leaders if the track gets hard (around the good 2 mark). The leaders can rattle off quick times etc.. Not sure how this will play.

The top 3 are the main chances, but there are some sneaky ones that have ability at big prices..

 

I’m prepared to go for a bit of value in MRS ONNASIS at $7. I think she is the way to go e/w. A few of these don’t really want the hard track but she will enjoy it and can get the gun run 3rd or 4th behind the leaders. She is in career best form and could be a good way to finish the day.

LADY MELKSHAM gets back to 1100m and Boss stays on. Although she’d like a bit of rain she is still right in this.

SERENE STAR was awesome coming from last a fortnight ago and there is no reason she can’t go close again with luck. The gate (14) does pose a question though?

CITY OF SONG has trialled well and ROSIES REWRD can sit just behind the pace to get every chance.

LADY ANTEBELLUM has a win over Soft Sand to her name and flew 1st up in an easier race. She is some hope here at $19.

 

ON TOP: 3- MRS ONNASIS e/w

Others: 2-LADY MELKSHAM, 5- ROSIES REWARD, 1-SERENE STAR

Roughie: 13- LADY ANTEBELLUM

 

 

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Sydney Race 6 No.7 DARE TO DREAM

Melbourne Race 5 No.5 KING’S ROSE

Melbourne race 6 No.3 THANKGOGYOU’REHERE

Melbourne race 9 No.1 MOSHEEN

 

**As far as QLD horses interstate I think the best chance is BETTER THAN READY in SYD. He is a serious horse and Randwick should suit.

 

MELBOURNE Quadrella numbers:

1,5,6,12 —–  2,3,5,9,10,12,15 —– 1,2,4  —– 1,2,3,5,13

 

 

THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:

Melbourne race 3 No.1 KABAYAN

Melbourne Race 9 No.1 MOSHEEN

 

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS

 

**TATTS MARKET MOVERS

RANDWICK

5/9 Sessions $2.25 to $2.15

6/7 Dare To Dream $2.8 to $2.4

8/7 Emotional Circus $3.8 to $3.5

8/10 Alltherightmoves $18.0 to $15.0

 

CAULFIELD

1/5 A Time For Julia $2.8 to $2.5

5/5 King’s Rose $2.8 to $2.2

7/5 Lightinthenite $3.6 to $3.0

8/10 My Quest For Peace $12.0 to $10.0

8/12 Lights Of Heaven $10.0 to $9.0

8/15 Alcopop $16.0 to $14.0

 

 

**Thanks for checking in and I hope I have helped find a few winners!