On ‘THE PUNT’ Doomben BTC Cup day

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Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’. IMPORTANT- We have very differing weather reports which makes this extremely difficult to write on a Thursday with no idea of what conditions we will be onPiney BBQ

The Carnival is here- Get your mates on BRISSYRACES, ‘Like’ our page on FACEBOOK, or follow @brissyraces on TWITTER!!

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*

TRACK-   DOOMBEN

RAIL =   True

SURFACE -   (I have done this preview on Dead so be wary if it is anything other than that) UPDATE–GOOD3

-blackbook

BLACKBOOK Runners:

FRIDAY, 9 MAY 2014

Lever Lever – Ipswich R6 No.7 (1666m): This trip suits.

SATURDAY, 10 MAY 2014

Amizade – Doomben R4 No.11 (1200m):

Eight’s A Party – Doomben R5 No.13 (2000m): Big step up in grade but can run a race.

Arki – Doomben R6 No.11 (2000m): Huge jump in grade, hard to back but could be more than handy?

Spirit Of Boom – Doomben R7 No.2 (1200m): He would be on top if good/dead.

Office Bearer – Morphettville R7 No.16 (1200m): Liking the $31.

Blackboard Special – Rosehill R4 No.12 (1200m): Nice horse on the way up.

Race 1:

With all due respect this looks weak!

Really, really wanted to be with SPLENDORA here. Think she is the best horse in the race by a long way and in well enough to give them a spanking, however it is not an ideal race. She was entered for the race last week she missed because of rain, is 1350m 1st up and the potential for rain again? Can’t put her on top because of that but if it was dry I’d be more than happy to back her. (Still might be on any surface) SCRATCHED

ELUSIVE STORM is the in-form, rock hard fit mare here. Her last two have been rally impressive. She is 1.5kg worse off at the weights against MAGIC IN MOTION but not sure that will be enough to change the result. Those two horses should again be in the top 3 home.Matt Dunn Racing

*All three of the horses mentioned would rather good/dead tracks, If it stayed good I may be afraid of SPLENDORA enough to worry me out of ELUSIVE STORM being a best bet*

On Top:   1- ELUSIVE STORM

Hardest To Beat:   4- MAGIC IN MOTION

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Race 2:

Not jumping out of my skin to bet here but it does look as though it will be a decent betting affair.

There is no doubt the top two runners have a class edge- KING KAMADA is better than these but has to lump the big weight and you’d expect him to maybe be looking for further than the 1600m 2nd up? He will be strong late.

LADY ECHELON is Miss consistent, always puts in and the more rain we get the more she looks enticing. Quality mare who is really suited at the mile on a wet track. Bell will ride her similar to last time and she will look the winner for sure.

Big fan of ALLKNIGHT SAINT who has a jump in grade here but a bog track would see him run well in my opinion.

The horse that has never been one of mine but interests me here is BEWHATYOUWANNABE. Heathcote is finding his mojo again and although this is a step up in grade this horse has had a few little excuses and from the inside gate with Colless on I’d expect him to settle closer and run some type of race.

On Top:  8- BEWHATYOUWANNABE

Hardest To Beat:   2- LADY ECHELON,   1- KING KAMADA

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Race 3:

Surprised LONDEHERO is $12. This is a tough starting point and slow or worse is not ideal but that seems a little inflated for a very good horse.

AGITATE will jump a length in front as usual and will again be the horse to beat. He will need to jump well to cross these from the awkward starting point and that was his undoing last start. Should be fitter and hard to beat.

HAVANA is really well suited from gate 2. Only won the maiden to date but to get within about 3.5L of Sidestep is more than enough to measure up here (probably not the best going on that occasion). He will be the one taking ground off AGITATE late.

Interested to see how LE VAL goes on the comeback path. Looked highly talented early on. Respect any money trail.

The best of the rest for mine are SEPT DE COURES who will push forward and SCHILLACKING who is an improving type and wouldn’t surprise if he ran into multiples.

On Top:  6- HAVANA

Hardest To Beat:  2- AGITATE,  1- LONDEHERO

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 MaluaRacing...

Race 4:

I am happy to have small bet here with an eye to the future. The locals STROAK $17 and LOOKS LIKE THE CAT deserve their crack and should run well.

Many of these have been running on really wet tracks, we may get that again here but if the surface is dry there could be some big form reversals.

All the visitors look good quality but if I had to select one it would probably be SHAUMARI, she is the one who looks to have a real sense of timing about her and loved the run in the G3 when attacking the line behind ELOPING last start, and the win of debut was nothing short of superb!

*Should be a great guide for races over the carnival.

On Top:   10- SHAUMARI   $3.30

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Race 5:

Kick off to a hard looking Quaddie! Should be a solid pace and good 2000m hit out.

BRAVE ALI knows only one way, he will lead. You can’t knock winning form, this is much harder but drops a couple of kilo’s from his last couple of wins.

Like the look of LAUREN KATE, can race handy and 2000m looks an ideal trip. Handles all conditions and more than proven this grade coming off a 2000m G2 victory. Respect.

ZENNISTA is one we know plenty about, just really hard to carry that weight here.

The other horse who will push forward and possibly try to hold the front is CARMORA but I’m not sure he will muster speed quick enough and may settle for the gun run 3rd the fence. With the light weight he has to be considered and another horse who finished behind him last start is EIGHT’S A PARTY, he is another one who has a stack of ability and I’m certain he is in for a career best prep and possibly career best run here. He is 3rd up at the 2000m and may be better for it but I believe he can win if he gets the breaks and the fav doesn’t.

Chris Waller is a genius and knows what horses to bring north. He has the deserved fav DANCHAI. Ran really well in the G2 J.R.A Cup and that’s great form for a race like this. He will take a stack of beating and these type of horses usually come up and make a mess of our lot!

*Very hard to beat the fav, but feel LAUREN TATE $9 and EIGHT’S A PARTY $11 are some value. Goes against everything I stand for to have a local up near an ex-European and a kiwi stayer but don’t sell him too short. If the fav gets the right run they really shouldn’t beat him but luck will play its part.

On Top:  2- DANCHAI  

Hardest To Beat:  13- EIGHTS A PARTY  +   4- LAUREN TATE

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Race 6:

Plenty of interest in this race and the kiwi’s will again dominate the betting!

GLORIOUS LAD and TELEPATHIC both have a stack of class and fought out a 1600m race last start. Both look as though 2000m will suit fine. I can’t believe I am saying this but VILANOVA may just be the forgotten horse, if you can make ground on this track (which is a question) he is simply a better horse now they ride him cold and he really attacks the line when ridden like that. PHIEDON is some hope I just can’t see how he can turn the tables on VILANOVA who went straight past him a couple of runs ago. Seems under the odds to me and the only thing is the way the track may play could suit him.

ARKI and AMEXED are the unknowns here and I’m afraid to leave them out. Gollan has good opinion of the NZ bred AMEXED who jumps from maiden but is crying out for 2000m+, while ARKI is a big beast of a thing with a giant stride. He covers ground beautifully and may surprise a few here. Both are well bred and will be strong late.

AVALANCHES far from the worst. Reckon he and ARKI are the leaders and will give them a fright.

On Top:  11- ARKI   $17

Hardest to beat:   1- VILANOVA, 14- TELEPATHIC,  4- GLORIOUS LAD

Wide in first 4’s (AMEXED and AVALANCHES)

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Race 7:

Track conditions more important here than any other race. I want to be on SPIRIT OF BOOM if the track was dry but the likely hood of a damp track leads me to BUFFERING. He looks to get a decent run in front or at worse outside TIGER TEES depending on how hard they want to push. They will definitely be aggressive on BUFFERING so I have him leading. It does look an ideal race for him as main dangers SPIRIT OF BOOM will go back and HOT SNITZEL has a sticky gate (7) here. Not sure what they do, more than enough pace drawn inside him to potentially get him stuck 3 wide if the are positive, it may be an option to ride him cold?? He is the hard one to map here, if he did somehow find a spot he can win.

SNITZERLAND always a chance in a race like this but not convinced she is at her top.

*Slight leaning to the BUFF with the best draw*

On Top:   1- BUFFERING   +   2- SPIRIT OF BOOM

Next Best:    5- HOT SNITZEL

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Race 8:

NOTE: Selections may change closer to raceday depending on who runs* UPDATE: This race has completely changed now it seems it will be dry..

Again track conditions?? THE WHITE HOPE, EXCELLANTES, QFIGHTER and SALUTER are all hopes on a dry track but may not even run on a wet..That also has an effect on speed maps….

I’ve tried to find reasons why CAPE KIDNAPPERS can’t win here but he is a bomb fresh, handles all conditions (although I reckon better if not heavy) and just needs a pinch of luck from the gate.

If the rain comes than DOUBTFILLY comes right into this. She struck a few firm tracks last prep and is a different horse with the sting out of the ground. She will get back but hit the line hard.

OUR BOY MALACHI, well he just keeps winning, this is his toughest task but how do you say he can’t? Being by Top Echelon you wouldn’t expect any rain to worry him either.

THE WHITE HOPE can win if bone dry. Even METALLURGICAL could win without surprising on a good track.

SEEKING MORE gets the gun run for Munce who will be positive and have him in the firing line.

Don’t think there is any option other to ride PICKABEE cold from this gate but again, if you can make ground she is an underrated mare who won a couple of quality races in good fashion last prep before heading to Melbourne for a G2. Handles all conditions.

***I reckon it’s CAPE KIDNAPPERS or as wide as you like!!

On Top:   2- CAPE KIDNAPPERS   $3.60

Hardest To Beat:   5- OUR BOY MALACHA,  4- SEEKING MORE

 Tatts

**PREVIEW updated after  about 7am Saturday morning*

GIBBO’s BEST BETS:

******Hard to narrow them down, pretty keen on the whole card if we strike a dead track…***

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BRISBANE Quadrella: (Done on Dead/Slow)

2,13 —— 1,4,10,11,14 —— 1,2 —— 2,3,5,10,12

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This weeks ‘Longshots’- Adelaide 7 No.16- OFFICE BEARER $31

*Also think ARKI and AMEXED worth strong consideration in exotics race 6 Brisbane.

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‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

*Race 4 No.10- SHAUMARI

*Race 8 No.2- CAPE KIDNAPPERS

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STEVE HEWLETT’S Best:

Race 6 No.4- GLORIOUS LAD e/w

Race 8 No.2- CAPE KIDNAPPERS

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***TATTS MARKET MOVERS  + Gibbo’s DOUBLE TRIO numbers:

Tatts never sleeps*To be added