On ‘THE PUNT’ Doomben Cup day!

Print Friendly

Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’. DOOMBEN CUP DAY Group 1 racing!!

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*blackbook

UPDATE FRIDAY LUNCH- There is rain about, could be difference between DEAD or SLOW.

BLACKBOOK Runners:

SATURDAY,   17 MAY 2014
Hludowig – Doomben R1   No.16 (1200m): Tough race, rough hope, would rather at Eagle farm.
Hollywood   Barbie –   Doomben R3 No.11 (1200m): Could surprise.
Missing   Page –   Doomben R4 No.14 (1200m): Step up in grade but not the worst.
Palmera   Lad –   Doomben R5 No.10 (1350m): Better suited EF?
Akzar – Doomben R7   No.4 (2000m): Leading chance.
Angel   Of Mercy –   Doomben R7 No.10 (2000m): Left her in the book, but wants dry to be   competitive.

 

(Not the strongest BLACKBOOK with a few stepping up in grade)pineapple

 

Race 1:

Should be plenty of speed generated with the big field but I personally won’t be on anything spotting them start here early in the day.

The big unknown is MISHANI STEALTH, a high class galloper we haven’t seen for over a year. It is a big ask but follow and respect any money trail.

Was keen to back ESCOFFIER $6.50 when scratched at the GC and I reckon he is the horse to get the right run just behind the speed and should be hard to beat. He is nice odds and more than happy to have something small on to kick the day off.

Although VINTAGE MOSS was beaten a few lengths fresh, he drops in grade, sits up on pace from a good draw and he will look the winner at some stage so don’t sell him short.

TIME TO PLUNDER was impressive last start getting the cash for us and KEMPELLY has been impressive all prep. MONBAZILLAC was terrific behind Sir Moments who will be competitive in a cracking race later in the day.

CHOICE BRO, BLACK CASH and HLUDOWIG all have bad draws but have some class. Will need a lot of luck.

On top: 12- ESCOFFIER

Hardest To Beat:  3- VINTAGE MOSS,  9- TIME TO PLUNDER,   17- MONBAZILLAC

 

 

 

 

Race 2:

Really don’t like this race. Still so much to learn about most of these.

VIENNA ROYALE coming back a gelding interests me. VELOZ beat a decent horse easy on debut which is never easy and RUNKLE brings Sydney form. Working around them and not getting too involved.

Don’t want to sell BASSILIQUE short, just hard to line up as runs and trials have been mixed.

**Prepared to watch on***

 

MaluaRacing...

Race 3:

Now this is a race, any one of about 6 of these would just win the race before this (the boys race). Some really good fillies.

Brent Stanley brings KALABEK who really should be winning. The win on debut at Caulfield after missing the start was sensational. Gate 9 is a bit sticky here and there is a chance she could get caught wide with a lot of pace underneath, otherwise go right back on a track you don’t really want to do that on? Extremely talented but just a question of where she lands?

HOLLYWOOD BARBIE also has a habit of getting back but Dunn puts the blinkers on and that looks like one of the best gear changes all day for mine. Very talented and that should bring the best out in her. Colless will try to be in a more handy spot from gate 5. Looks the value for mine.

SHINJI is a speedster, suited here by rolling forward, gate doesn’t matter me for that reason.

TOTALLY SURE and SARISARA on the other hand have horror gates and will need luck, both have quality.

Forgiving GRAPEVINES last run and on a drier surface I’m sure she will start over the  odds from that effort.

*Sticking with the fav but not going overboard. The TRIFECTA below is all I will be playing*

On Top:   6- KALABEK

Roughie:  11- HOLLYWOOD BARBIE

TRIFECTA:   6,11 /  2,4,6,7,11  /  1,2,3,4,6,7,11,12     guide   $24  =   50%

 

 

 

 

Race 4:

Hate the fact I have the fav’s clearly on top but really does look a race in two. Not great speed here which means I want to be settling in the first half of the field. SRIKANDI has taken all before her, was she flattered by the heavy track at the GC? Possibly but she annihilated them. Stays at 54kg, rolls forward and sure to give them something to catch around Doomben!

The other horse who gets a nice run is MINIATURE. She has plenty of talent, had absolutely no luck last start in a good race. All her form from last prep has stood up and the fresh effort to place behind Politeness was very sound. Will be the one to trouble the fav late.

SHE’S CLEAN is super on her day, the big weight and her pattern to get back are the hurdles. PICKABEE has a bad gate but is another with plenty of ability.

*Looks a race in two*

On Top:    3- SRIKANDI   +   8- MINIATURE

 

 

 

Race 5:

Kick off to the quaddie!

This starting point does allow horse far more chance to get a spot then the 1000, 1100 and 1200m starts, however a few will have to go back from gates which makes it tough.

There is not huge speed here and I’d expect DOTHRAKI to push forward and QUEEN OF THE LOCHS to follow him across. I’d think Harrison would be under instructions to lead and surely Nash take the gun run right on her hammer with DOTHRAKI.

I feel HUCKLEBUCK gets a super run from the gate about 4th-5th probably one off the fence. He only has to run up to last preparations form to do a number on most of these.

SIR MOMENTS returned in fine fashion with a dominant win at the GC. He probably settles midfield and will be the one charging late, the step to 1350m is ideal.

This race is full of really nice horses but I have most of the other chances settling behind those three horses mentioned and I find it hard to fathom that anything could spot those 3 a start around Doomben and run past them? SAFEGUARD is the one who was strongest late at the GC and best of the rest here.

*Many chances but feel the three-four mentioned are the leading contenders*

On Top:   4- SIR MOMENTS  $11

Hardest To Beat:   3- HUCKLEBUCK,  1- DOTHRAKI,  2- SAFEGUARD

 

 

 

Race 6:

The main lead up to the Oaks- The Roses.

ARABIAN GOLD $2.60 and HERA $3.80 dominate the market.

ARABIAN GOLD gets all the favours from the gate, can sit where she wants and you simply have to say she is the horse to beat here. I will say she is superior on slow/heavy tracks and she was probably flattered on those occasions. The wetter the better for her.

HERA may be one run away? The effort 1st up was good and she lumped 58kg on that occasion. Back at set weights is a massive bonus and Cassidy gets gate 4 for the perfect run in transit.

I’m happy to look for a bit more value and be in ROCK DIVA’s corner. At $8.50 I feel she is the value in the race. Against most of my selections today she has come up with the ordinary gate but she gets back anyway so no real dramas. Her win in the G3 Sunline in NZ was outstanding and all she needs to be competitive here is a good ride from Innes. I wouldn’t want to be 10-12 wide on the corner at Doomben but if he can find the back of the right horse to take him into the race she can win for sure.

Anything could fall into first 4’s but ASADAUSKAITE looks the best of the rest after a luckless run at the Gold Coast.

On Top:   7- ROCK DIVA   $8.50

Hardest To Beat:  3- HERA,  1- ARABIAN GOLD,  9- ASADAUSKAITE

Matt Dunn Racing

 

 

Race 7:

The feature- Doomben Cup Group 1.

Nowhere near as clear cut as many think. Although it is a small field I’d be surprised if they tried to doodle around up front and walk along. As long as the track is Dead or better I will be with JUNOOB, although he is 6 yr old he is improving all the time and the real wet tracks have not helped even though he continues to run well. Nash gets a lovely run in transit here and I’m pretty confident on top of the ground he at least has all the horses from the Hollindale covered.

AKZAR is airborne! Many say he is a wet tracker but he goes on anything! Wet track 2400m back to 2000m not that big of a concern but many thought he looked ‘light’ in the enclosure last start so interesting to see how he parades here (didn’t hurt him last start).

LEEBAZ has been backed to win a fortune through the week and when team Hawkes set them for something they are usually right. He does get to WFA for the first time, 2000m for the first time, and goes up 5kg from the Hawkesbury cup win. That’s a bloody lot of questions for a $4 pop… Can win but I can’t have on top.

*Can make a case for most runners but think AKZAR and JUNOOB are the horses to beat.

On Top:  5- JUNOOB  $5.50  (dead or better)

Hardest To Beat:   4- AKZAR   (wet)

 

 

 

Race 8:

The best form race coming into this has to be the Victory stakes- On that occasion SOMEDAY worked up on pace instead of just taking a sit behind them and the effort was really good. He beat home SOLZHENITSYN on that occasion and has a 7kg weight pull on that horse here. Gate 1 a big plus and will be ridden with a sit here im sure.

DANCES ON STARS was sensational in the PM cup when spotting a big start and running them down. A repeat performance would probably have him winning again. I thought EMBLEMS was a very good chance here but from a wide gate and with DANCES ON STARS having a 1.5kg weight pull from the last time they met I’d expect him to beat home EMBLEMS. I give EMBLEMS a good chance but surprised he is $4.60 favourite and DANCES ON STARS is $6.50.

Forgiving RIVER LAD with a few excuses last start. Not sure how they will ride him here but guessing they will be positive and he has proven himself over and over in this grade and the 2nd to Appearance looks an incredible formline.

Two horses resuming are LUCKY HUSSLER and STARTSMEUP. Both are capable on their day but STARTSMEUP with 54kg creates interest. He hasn’t seen a weight like that in a longtime. Forget any runs away from home as he is a hopeless traveller, he can show up here at big odds! ($17)

**Super betting race to finish the day!

On Top:  4- DANCES ON STARS   $6.50

Hardest To Beat:      2- RIVER LAD,   9- STARTSMEUP, 11- LUCKY HUSSLER

TattsBet

 

GIBBO BEST BETS:

**Hard to  narrow them down, really like the days racing again. Feel all four legs of the Quaddie our On Top selections can run well at Each-Way odds.

Race 3-  KALABEK

Best e/w – Race 5- SIR MOMENTS  +  Race 6- ROCK DIVA

-

BRISBANE Quadrella: (Guide-check in after 9am Saturday for any changes and final numbers)

1,2,3,4  —– 1,3,7,9 —– 4,5 —— 2,4,9,11,

 

This weeks ‘Longshot’- Hard to beat fav, but HOLLYWOOD BARBIE can be put in trifecta’s at $21

 

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

Race 5 No.12- ENQUARE

Race 8 No.8- SOMEDAY  (SCRATCHED)

-

STEVE HEWLETT’s best:

Race 3 No.6- KALABEK

Race 5 No.3- HUCKLEBUCK

-

***TATTS MARKET MOVERS  + Gibbo’s DOUBLE TRIO numbers:

 

JACKPOT   ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 17 May 2014

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

DOOMBEN (BR)

8

$150,000

BRC SPRINT

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$27,676

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$5,000

RISING STARS C’SHIP C2/C5 FINAL

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

4

$5,000

NURSERY PACE FINAL (2YO   C&G)

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

6

$5,000

NURSERY PACE FINAL (2YO F)

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

7

$5,000

NURSERY PACE FINAL (3YO F)

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

8

$5,000

NURSERY PACE FINAL (3YO   C&G)

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$25,000

C4 OR BETTER

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$12,500

C1 TO C2

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

RICHMOND (NG)

8

$1,000

RICHMOND OAKS FINAL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**Thanks again for checking in, spread the BRISSYRACES word!

YOU CAN HEAR A PREVIEW HERE:

http://www.helter-skelter.com.au/    UP SATURDAY MORNING