On ‘The Punt’ Magic Millions day 2018

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MAGIC MILLIONS DAY!

The highlight of the year for the Gold Coast and a great atmosphere with the sales running all week.

*Feel free to print the Preview off and take to the track, or even text/email mates if they enjoy a punt*

We should be on a GOOD 4 hopefully, it’s been a hot week and I just hope they have put enough water on, you don’t want it getting to a FIRM 2 and a concrete track.

**Let me just say there were a few bets I thought from gates would just be good things but wide gates a big query and some of those horses aren’t even on top now.

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BLACKBOOK:

 Mr Bellagio - Wed Jan 10 Doomben R7- 3rd paid $3.50
Nature Strip - Wed Jan 10 Sandown Hillside R5- Won $1.60
I Feel Good - Fri Jan 12 Gatton R6
Ingeegoodbe - Sat Jan 13 Gold Coast R4- Not ideal race, goes in first 4′s.
Care To Think - Sat Jan 13 Gold Coast R6- Gate 19, cmon! Can still trouble them.
Pierata - Sat Jan 13 Gold Coast R7- Looks the winner.
Sunlight - Sat Jan 13 Gold Coast R8- Just needs some luck in running.

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PREVIEW WILL BE UPDATED AFTER 8am SATURDAY and Quaddies added

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Race 1:

Bit of speed engaged here and even with the decent tempo I’m looking at those on pace as the main hopes.

The obvious is DINNIGAN, comes off a 2.5L defeat by Pierata the 3yr old guineas fav last start, there is no form like that in this race to measure up. The start before that she was just rolled by Kissing Game and that horse has since run 2nd to the second fav in the guineas Sasso Corbaro. This horse looks the winner on exposed form. WESTROCK right on speed too but think this stablemate is a better horse.

ZABEELS CHOICE had trialed well and was then beaten by what looks a handy one on debut. From gate 5 they will either try to lead or likely to get the gun run behind DINNIGAN and be the one to get it down if it does have a chink. May have rathered 1400m but has been kept on the fresh side.

PROBLEM SOLVER the other one to roll forward and looks an honest type. Can find one better but puts herself in the race.

I though ZOOLOGY has shown enough to be competitive here and like the fact they went to Sydney on the way up to get a run the clockwise direction. Sticky gate but with some luck in running can be competitive.

BALEARIC for Waller likely to get back but well enough suited here.

Possibly best of the locals might be OUR NETBANK but I did like the recent trial of EPIC RANT $61 behind a few decent ones at Murwillumbah, might be the smoky. (Also returns a gelding, that could be a big gear change)

*Fav maybe too skinny for many to back but goes on top. Will play trifecta’s with those mentioned below.

On Top:  10-DINNIGAN

Hardest To Beat 12-ZABEEL’S CHOICE, 3-ZOOLOGY, 11-PROBLEM SOLVER

Roughie: 4-EPIC RANT $61

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Race 2:

SPEEDMAP:

MMSpeedmap 2

Not a great quality race but I’m glad they have it as part of the day, still a good betting race.

A couple of the on-speed horses with a hope will be ONE GOLDEN DAY for the Currie yard and ZAFINA for Matt Dale. ZAFINA is one of those horses who can race on speed and she is always around the money but just lacks the killer turn of foot to put a lot of races away. In saying that, she is well placed in this special conditions country race. Will again be there at the 100m mark and be a hope.

Weir brings HE’S A MORAL and I always like the country Victoria form (especially against a lot of Qlders). Mix in some pretty solid MV form and he’s going to take a stack of beating. Was 3rd two back to Just Hifalutin with 59kg and then just ok last time with 61kg. Bayliss can sit midfield from the good gate and should have the turn of foot to run over them.

The North Qlder CONCA DEL SOGNO is simply a winner. Had a great prep when last in work and not the clearest path when he returned to the track. Has to be a hope here.

Always had time for FIT FOR PURPOSE and if this was 1400m I’d be pretty keen. Back to 1200m not ideal but likely to be some pressure and he’ll come with a rush late. Forgive last start when he just got too far back but was good through the line, he just needs clear running.

ROTHABYE is another who will want a hot tempo to allow him to rush late but does have the ability to run into the money if Bowman has luck from gate 17.

I’m assuming they have targeted this race with SUGGAN BUGGAN as there would have been plenty of races for him since his last race. Instead they have freshened him up and looking at this as a 1st up tilt. First up last time was a dominant winner on a heavy track. Was bogged in the worst part of the track last time and still nearly got the cash.

*Looking at swoopers here and thinking Weir’s might be the best of them.

On Top: 5-HE’S A MORAL $6.50

Hardest to Beat:  11-SUGGAN BUGGAN,   2-CONCA DEL SOGNA, 15-ZAFINA

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Race 3:

SPEEDMAP:

MMSpeedmap 3

Sure to be a tempo here with I’M A RIPPA drawing wide and sure to burn across and run them along. PEPPERANO and MISHANI EL LOBO will be next in running and taking the field up to I’M A RIPPA. UPSTART PRIDE could easily sit 2nd but he’s impossible to map as he can miss the kick.

The bad gate for HAVASAY isn’t the end of the world but far from ideal. I’d have loved for him to draw a gate and to have been able to settle midfield but from there he may get a long way out of his ground and with I’M A RIPPA running them along it’s nowhere near as easy of a task. The horse is flying, he was enormous fresh over the 1050m with the fastest last section of the day. He then stayed at the unsuitable 1050m next run but was again strong through the line. Up to the 1300m ideal and 3rd up last prep he exploded to win at Doomben. The one to beat still.

I’M A RIPPA and PEPPERANO are both going well and both can kick at the top of the straight and give them something to catch. Both have Care To Think form this time in and 1300m is ideal for them both. The $18 available looks over the odds.

MISHANI EL LOBO will get the gun run here and he has been very consistent for the Anderson stable. Beat Ice Frost two back and then 2nd to Perfect Dare at this track when they broke 1:09 (track a firm2 that day)

GLENDARAS two runs back would give him hope here but needs a super ride from the horror draw. Looks to be getting back to old form and can run into first 4’s.

REALING has come back this prep far better than he was racing last time in work and can be around the money.

I was far from convinced with Lloyds ride on SIEGFRIED last week, I thought it looked like the horse was travelling and he seemed to be pulling the reins instead of pushing the horses neck, it was definitely a different ride to how he rode out his winners. I felt the horse turned his head because of the ride instead of Jeff turning his head to straighten the horse. Sectionals would say I’m right with SIEGFRIED with only the winner running a quicker 400-200m sectional but his last 200m not great. This race is the goal, great training team and the horse has won on the back up on a couple of occasions. Everything says he’s around the money!

*Have to be in HAVASAYs corner but respecting a few other here in SIEGFRIED plus the two leaders. Good race.

On Top:  3-HAVASAY $4.50  ++ 2-SIEFGRIED $9

Hardest To Beat:   12-I’M A RIPPA $18, 9-MISHANI EL LOBO,

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Race 4:

Market has it a race in two with PAYROLL and SEDANZER the only hopes. They are in good form but this race can throw up a result.

PAYROLL was 2nd in the Matriarch at Flemington over the carnival and the run was excellent on a track playing to the fence. Has since had runs spaced and won over 1800m (G3) and 1700m (Listed). That’s super form for this and she did run 3rd in the race last year also at her only go up to 2200m. Looks the one to beat.

I’ll make a case for one at $51 here in OUTRAGED. He’s a horse that can be going horrible but once he finds form he usually continues to run well. His run two back (a month between runs) behind Emphasis was full of merit and only the winner run a quicker last 400m. Last start they went very slow up front in what turned out to be a boat race but he had the fastest last 400m and 200m of the race. Better tempo will suit and Lloyd goes on what should be a key booking.

SEDANZER is airborne and been racing excellent at the mile. There is a chance she could blow them away but just the runs from a mile straight to 2200m seems less than ideal, but who am I to question this stable who continue to kick goals.

Away from them it looks really even, we had INGEEGOOODBEE in the blackbook last start when he went well at $31 and thought he’d need that run so can go in tris.

*Don’t want to get too involved here, will back PAYROLL and OUTRAGED $51

On Top:  2-PAYROLL $3.50

Roughie to back: 8-OUTRAGED $51

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Race 5:

SPEEDMAP:

MMSpeedmap 5

DON’T BABYLON will try to cross GLOBAL GLAMOUR so it’s in the hands of Clark on the fav to decide if he holds at all costs or if he lets it cross and then peel of it’s back and sit outside leader, that would be my plan but the good thing for them is they have that tactical speed.

GLOBAL GLAMOUR has had the 15 starts and 14 of them have been at Group or Listed level. She is the class galloper here and races hard on speed. Has to carry 60.5kg but won over 1400m fresh last prep in the G2 Tristarc with 58.5kg. The recent trials have been impressive and she is the one they all have to beat.

One that really interests me is INVINCIBELLA at the double figure odds. Although she gets back anyway the gate is highly annoying again! Yet another key runner to draw bad. The 1200m around Doomben wasn’t exactly her go but looked ready to launch as it was all over last time out. Out to 1300m on a bigger track are far more suitable and Fradd just needs to find some cover. No doubt she will be strong late.

MERRIEST had a great prep last time in and was only 1.6L off the fav in the Tristarc and does meet her 1.5kg better off her. Went ok fresh to get it under the belt as she is a bomb 2nd up winning 3 of 4.

Backed SYLPHEED her first two runs this prep that were a little disappointing and  then she improves lengths to win last start. Bad gate makes it tough.

NOTONYOURLIFE is pregnant I believe but has had an excellent prep. Just needed another couple of strides and she’d have won again last start. At $31 she goes in all exotics and the market continues to miss her.

PRETTY FAST bumped into just an ok bunch last start but has won 4 on the trot after being placed to perfection.

ECKSTEIN is good enough but she’s about as consistent as I am doing the dishes and isn’t a betting option for myself anymore.

*You’d expect GLOBAL GLAMOUR to win but I’ll be making her and INVINCIBELLA winning results for me here.

On Top: 1-GLOBAL GLAMOUR $3

Value: 13-INVINCIBELLA  $12

Other for Exotics: 8-MERRIEST,  7-NOTONYOURLIFE $31,

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Race 6: THE MAGIC MILLIONS CUP 1400m

SPEEDMAP

MMSpeedmap 6

I can’t win here with punters. As many would know I have a small share with mates in CARE TO THINK, if I go the wrong way tipping him or against him I’ll be in for it. What I will say is leading into the draw I’d have declared him from a decent barrier. However he has drawn 19/19 so after emergencies come out he will jump from the outside gate 16. Many have said he will still win, and he might but it’s not ideal that two of his three main rivals have drawn gates 1 and 4 to get the runs they want. We will now have to go a long way back and possibly be posted 3-4 wide and maybe no cover. Our best chance may be with MOST IMPORTANT, NIKITAS and I THOUGHT SO drawn just inside us and looking to be positive to neutral we might be able to follow them and hopefully get on their backs, that’s best case scenario. Over to you J.Lloyd……

Have been tipping CRACK ME UP all prep and he comes off a G3 Villiers win, you don’t get much better form for a race like this. Has had a very successful prep and from gate 5 he gets the run of the race, chases them down like in the Villiers and is the one to beat.

OZI CHOICE really worries me, he is in spectacular form. Even after 30 starts, somehow Weir can improve them and the horse has never gone better. He’s put a few fields away easily lately and it took a horse like Steel Frost to run him down a few starts back. He leads or sits behind leader and is another who gets every opportunity. At $13 he looks some value.

ARBEITSAM should kick up from gate 1 and run them along. The fresh run looks poor on paper but he was good enough late and that would have just been a run to blow out the cobwebs with this in mind. If the track is playing to leaders he can win.

Even with the weight LUCKY HUSSLER can give them a fright. Far from his best form but Weir is a freak for getting them up for one race and if this horse brings his form from the Crystal Mile he just wins, no ifs, buts or maybes.

*Well the barrier gods haven’t helped but this shapes as a cracking race now.

On Top:  3-CRACK ME UP $6  ++  11-CARE TO THINK $4

Next Best:  8-OZI CHOICE $13,  1-LUCKY HUSSLER,  6-ARBEITSAM

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Race 7: MAGIC MILLIONS 3yr old Guineas 1400m

SPEEDMAP

MMSpeedmap 7

There are plenty of these going ok but you can’t go any better than PIERATA is going, the horse is simply airborne. The win the other day was one that just stamped him an extremely high class colt and to be honest a repeat performance means he should just be winning. Gate 1 is ideal as he can find a spot and the fact the track is likely to be hard it shouldn’t be a negative (when there is moisture in the track they seem to race off the fence). Brown will just look to keep him out of trouble and probably get off the fence before the corner if possible. With a trouble free run it’s hard to see any turn the tables on him.

Of those that have been taking on PIERATA I feel GOODFELLA is the one who hasn’t had much luck and the latest effort when he went back from the gate and covered ground on  the corner was very good. He was strong late behind the fav and gets to 1400m on the bigger track. At $11 he goes in trifecta’s for sure.

Of the locals we always respect CELLARGIRL and SHOGUN SUN but their returns have been mixed. CELLARGIRL $34 hasn’t been anywhere near her best being beaten over 6L both runs, however she did rattle off the 2nd quickest split between the 400-200m last start behind the winner, maybe she just needed the run and this is GF day. SHOGUN SUN was very good fresh but looked a bit flat and was outsprinted by one who isn’t running here. May be spot on for this and $26 also some value.

ARRESTAR is the other local that I will throw in exotics, he is $301 in some markets but the Dunn stable have a terrible fresh record but their 2nd up stats are amazing. This horse would have been set for this race and a recent trial would have him cherry ripe. Handy enough to run well here.

Of the interstate horses who we haven’t seen up here BEL SONIC and SASSO CORBARO look most likely. BEL SONIC has returned with two on the trot, he gets back and can rattle off some very good splits. This a step up but going in the right direction. SASSO CORBARO would have loved a better gate but she has simply put a couple of fields away in two strides recently and gone on to win well, that’s the sign of a very good horse and with that turn of foot she is sure to make her presence felt in this! CALCULATED has returned with big weights and may have also needed the runs, gets Bowman which also helps. SMARTEDGE was disappointing until the blinkers went on, horror gate doesn’t help but has Angland on and sure to be ridden quiet.

Really liked WILD HEARTs win at Wyong where very strong late. You can make a case each time he has been rolled. Most starts were on wet tracks or he didn’t have the blinkers. He got the blinkers when beaten by Shogun Sun but that was again on soft ground. This time in he got a good track and the blinkers for the first time and won the Millions race at Wyong where he was strong late running over Single Bullet. Can sit midfield and run again be strong late.

*Cracking race, I can’t put anything on top of the fav but good race for exotics.

2018 MAGIC MILLIONS GUINEAS selections:

 1-PIERATA

2-GOODFELLA

15-SASSO CORBARO

9-WILD HEART

6-BEL SONIC

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Race 8: The 2yr old MAGIC MILLIONS CLASSIC:

SPEEDMAP

 MMspeedmap rc8

Many have said after the draw that EF TROOP and SUNLIGHT will burn across to lead. That may well be the case but gee whiz there are some horses drawn underneath that are going to want to drive forward to hold their spots so they may well go extremely quick early here. The two horses mentioned above are high quality, but from the gates they are going to have to be if they burn early and try to hold them off.

To be honest I wasn’t a big JONKER man to begin with but sitting in behind the speed at Wyong was a great option to teach the horse to settle and I love the way he let down. Even better now he has drawn a good gate and should jump from gate 2. Bullock has ridden the horse a treat and you feel sorry for him but Bowman from gate 2 coming off weekend winner at his return to Sydney racing will be full of confidence and with that hot speed he should be able to sit just off that speed and get last shot at them. Still run around a little in the straight last time but that just shows he still has some improvement to come.

On the other side is SUNLIGHT who is rock hard fit and the ultimate professional! Does nothing wrong, settles and let’s rip with strong late sectionals. Simply fool proof and sure to be there and look the winner at some stage. With a good ride she’s the one to beat.

EF TROOP is a speed machine. He went hard on debut and just hung on that day, next start he got it a bit easier and just put them to the sword and gave them a belting. His race depends on the first 400m and the problem for him is the fact the other know how good he is and they are not going to afford him any favours! He will be in front and be the one they all have to catch.

NOMOTHAJ has been out of sight out of mind but gets a good gate, comes off two trials and I for one love it when these horses come into a race like this fresh.

MERYL returned with a good win and from gate 5 can sit in behind the speed and get every chance.

I had something small on OUTBACK BARBIE at $61 before the draw but after getting gate 6 she is in to about $26. Professional girl who can find a nice spot and get every chance. Might not have the absolute class as a few of these but gets her chance and can run in the money somewhere.

*Good race, not brimming with confidence but have JONKER slightly on top after the draw.

2018 MAGIC MILLIONS CLASSIC selections:

  1-JONKER

11-SUNLIGHT

13-OUTBACK BARBIE

2-EF TROOP

 9-MERYL

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Race 9: MM SPRINT 1200m:

SPEEDMAP:

MMSpeedmap 9

WHYPEEO, MILWAUKEE, SNITZKRAFT and PINCH RIVER burn early here! VIDDORA and DOTHRAKI should get a super run behind them and EGYPTIAN SYMBOL not far off her midfield.

Well VIDDORA carried 55kg in this race last year and couldn’t get it done, goes up 4kg here but has won a G1 and placed in two others since she was last here! On that form from the good gate she is nearly impossible to go past in the last. Coming off a dominant G1 win over in Perth and all reports are she is still going well.

EGYPTIAN SYMBOL returned with a win and has since won two trials leading into this. Looks a target race from a while out and the speed sets it up for her big finish. Her best has her a leading hope.

DOTHRAKI is a non-winner but again he goes in exotics as he gets the gun run and always puts himself in the finish, just lacks a will to win!

SNITZKRAFT has always promised plenty but I think WHYPEEO is a better horse. I do think a hard run 1200m sees them both out so unless it’s a leaders bias track they might struggle the last 50m.

MURT THE FLIRT was 3rd in this race last year and he can throw out really good runs every now and then. From the gate he can be in front of midfield and run a race at $21 with the speed on in this.

Could have had something on PERFECT DARE at big odds but the outside gate is a major concern. Has trialled particularly well since his last start win.

*VIDDORA just have to turn up in the same form as she’s had all prep to win, has done a lot of travelling.

On Top:  3-VIDDORA

Hardest To Beat:  9-EGYPTIAN SYMBOL, 12-MURT THE FLIRT,  4-DOTHRAKI

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GIBBOS BEST:

Race 7 No.1 – PIERATA $2.50

e/w Race 2 No.5 – HE’S A MORAL $6.50

QUADDIE

3,6,8,11

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1,2,9,11,12,13

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‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

race 7-1 PIERATA

Race 8-13- OUTBACK BARBIE $26

STEVE HEWLETTS BEST:

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SHANE CIURLEOS BEST

Race 3 No.2- SIEGFRIED e/w $9