On ‘The Punt’ Oaks day

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Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’. A fair week last week with CAPE KIDNAPPERS and SPIRIT OF BOOM getting the cash, just needed WISTFUL to get a bit of luck to make it a good day.

We move on from that and get to the bigger track of Eagle Farm. Most horses get their chance here and even though it is about to be ripped up, if we get good surfaces it should race ok. Rain on the day would be a horror over the carnival!

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*

You can hear a preview with AJ on

www.helter-skelter.com.au

blackbook

 

BLACKBOOK Runners:

FRIDAY,   30 MAY 2014
Ferocity   Fair –   Sunshine Coast R4 No.7 (1400m): Reckon this an alright horse going on to   better.
SATURDAY,   31 MAY 2014
Goldie’s   Image –   Eagle Farm R2 No.13 (1400m): Step up in class?
Le Val – Eagle Farm R6   No.11 (1400m): Probably ready to produce best but this a big ask?
Architect – Eagle Farm R8   No.14 (1300m): Outclassed?

 

 

 

Race 1:

Gee I thought this would be a race to get a class apprentice on KING KAMADA, sneak in with the lighter weight and make a good thing of him.. Maybe they feel he is a good thing no matter what? He has been screaming for 1800-2000m, he gets the 1800m on the bigger track and does have a class edge on most of these. Confident he can turn the tables on the horses that beat him home last start and only the other form lines could pop up. They will have trouble holding him out no matter what and $5.50 looks a fair e/w price.

DIENEKES is the smoky, can roll forward and is the one taking a claim. Could run a cheeky race.

STELLA LANTE brings a completely different form line and she is more than handy on her day. Gets in on the minimum weight with Boss on board and coming of a Listed placing.

BEWHATYOUWANNABE and CRACCO were good against KING KAMADA last time out and should be respected for those playing exotics.

On Top:   1- KING KAMADA

 

 

 

Race 2:

This race has me beat! No idea where to look. Nearly 10 different form lines and many mixing form.

I have tipped HOLLYWOOD BARBIE her last couple so will have small bet but mainly for an interest at the $17, and I liked the run of KELVIN THE KRUEL when making ground on a track that was very bias against where he came from, the $6.50 looks a fair price him too.

*Very tough, not getting real involved

 

MaluaRacing...

 

Race 3:

AKZAR has been up a long time but still can’t go past him here. Been is sensational form, made ground on a track that is was very hard to last time and this looks an easier event. He is the horse to beat.

MORIARTY always in a race like this and WISTFUL is on the way up and should have won last week. MR O’CEIRIN leads them up and looks to steal some sectionals.

On Top:  2- AKZAR

 

 

 

Race 4:

Looked at this race every way possible. There is deat set no speed on paper away from ZIPPITY LASS $21 for the Heinrich camp who are flying. She may fall into first 4’s at a price.

Went looking for value and have to admit I thought we’d be getting better than $5.50 AVALADYLUCK. The concern is she is not a horse that usually puts herself in a first 4-5 position in running which may be needed here. Hoping from gate 5 they may be a touch more positive.

SINGLE STYLE is impossible to try and work out. Has gone forward before but may race best with a sit? If I was them I would try to be positive and sit outside the lead. In saying that I have no idea how she will be ridden, guessing they go right back and hard for me to tip with so many questions.

I felt SHE’S CLEAN could be anything 18 months ago but hasn’t reached the heights I expected. At her best she could blow then away but that’s the question, how good is she going?

DISCREET is brilliant on her day and has trialled twice leading into this. You would still expect her to be better for the run but I would watch any money trail leading to her.

LITTLE BROWN HORSE ready to produce best 3rd up on her favourite track?

*Again not getting too involved but leaning to AVALADYLUCK and hoping they can settle in first half of the field.

On Top:  7- AVALADYLUCK

Others:  1,2,3,4,10 (in exotics)

 

 

 

 

Race 5:

Again, little speed here. PLAYACTION leads and I would be very surprised if LADY ECHELON doesn’t camp on his back. May also time to push forward on GREY ASSIGNMENT?

Makes it hard to line up as I felt THAT’S THE ONE and STARTSMEUP were ready to win off their latest efforts. They will again spot start again here and set themselves a task.

The big plus for THAT’S THE ONE is he has not struck a ‘big’ track in Qld, this is his first run at EF and it will suit. At $15 + $4.50 I do feel he is the value in an open race, goes in all quaddies for mine.

ELMANTOSH drops sharply in grade and forget last start. Last time he carried 54kg he finished 3rd in the Recognition stakes (listed), big chance around the $9.

CHOICE BRO gets conditions to suit here, could improve sharply.

*LADY ECHELON gets a few favours and is the horse to beat, happy to save on her and have something on THAT’S THE ONE.

Value:  6- THAT’S THE ONE  $15

Hardest To Beat:  8- LADY ECHELON,  2- STARTSMEUP,  13- ELMANTOSH

 

pineapple

 

 

Race 6:

This looks a great betting affair. Should be at least an even tempo with the big field.

Prepared to think HUCKLEBUCK (SCRATCHED) improves greatly from his fresh run at 1350m. Went a touch hard on that occasion and although he has a sticky gate he should push forward again and land in first 4 on settling.

The horse I felt could jump out of the ground was COSTA VIVA as she would love the bigger track and 1400m. She too has drawn out wide and will need luck as she is likely to go back in running. She is a G1 winner.

Far from given up on SIR MOMENTS, he was not suited over the road and 1400m at EF is more his cup of tea. He has won a Listed race over this track/trip and is up to this. SPLENDORA $41 finished as well as him last time out and will improve off that.

Was going to take on HAVANA until he drew gate 4, gets all the favours and every chance again now.

Liked the way SAFEGUARD finished off and Blinkers may well be the key to him. Michael Rodd in form and he should finish hard.

*Cracking event!

On Top:  2- SAFEGUARD

Hardest To Beat:  14- COSTA VIVA,  6- HAVANA, 17- SPLENDORA

 

 

 

 

 

Race 7:

Couldn’t steer punters of anything here. This is one of the most even Oaks I have come across.

I reckon they will make this a fair dinkum test and wouldn’t be surprised to see a horse like TORNADO MISS take off at the 800m and try to drive them into the ground as that seems her best chance, some of this may have a stitch by that stage!

ARABIAN GOLD will be a short priced fav but feel she is far from over the line, I will admit gate 1 helps, a hiccup through the week is not ideal but deserves to start fav.

TINTO took ground off the fav last start late which is always a good pointer and ROCK DIVA also made huge ground late on a leader bias track. She has an outside gate but that’s not always the end of the world in these races, you just need a bit more luck!

SANCERRE $15 is really well bred being out of Vouvray and she is well and truly on the way up. Can sit in front of midfield and will attack the line. A touch worried it might all be a bit too soon in her first prep, but she may also be one right out of the box? I’m sure Colgan will be happy to sit about 6th-7th here which would be ideal.

Liking what I’ve seen of TERAI $17, comes off a win at Canterbury and loved the way she ran through the line. Sat back, relaxed and when given her head she has an explosive sprint over the staying trip. Can run a race here.

STAR FASHION very honest, usually finds one better but her form should stack up again.

KHUTULUN $9 and SNAPCRACKLE $81 worth first 4 thoughts and both should run the trip right out!

*Many other chances. One of the best Oaks, well even Oaks I can remember.

On Top:  16- SANCERRE  $15

Hardest To Beat:  8- ROCK DIVA,  2- TINTO,  11- TERAI,  17- SNAPCRACKLE,  1- ARABIAN GOLD

 

Matt Dunn Racing

 

Race 8:

This looks like another great race for punters. Quality field.

HOT SNITZEL and BLACK CASH $26 are your leaders, very confident of that, they should get it very cheap up front unless somebody rides their horse upside down. Although HOT SNITZEL has 59kg and BLACK CASH a query at the grade they will both be hard to run down. Can’t remember the last time BLACK CASH carried 53kg. Have tried to find reasons against HOT SNITZEL but other than lumping 59kg he gets a lot of favours!

I think of the other favs- SACRED STAR has the ability to sit a little closer, possibly 4th-5th from the gate and with an avg tempo. I had been following this bloke and he is a beauty. Gets a lovely run, deserves to be fav and is the horse to beat.

DANCES ON STARS may be spotting them a start but reckon he is flying. At $10 he must be given consideration with a chance to balance up on the big EF straight.

Long, long time between drinks for ALMA’S FURY but first start for the in-form Gollan stable. Should be able to sit in the first 5 and Jimmy Byrne should suit this bloke.

Forgiving BENETTA on the wet tracks. She will strip fitter and if she can run up to her best form she could trouble them. Beat home DANCES ON STARS a couple of runs ago and meets him 2.5kg better off here.

MASTHEAD- 3rd up for Waller with Boss aboard- Respect, like the last run when didn’t have the clearest path.

Locals MISHANI STEALTH and DOUBTFILLY far from the worst.

*As much as I tried to tip away from him HOT SNITZEL gets a lot of favours and think he will run a race at $6.50 + $2.40. Will have a wall of horses attacking late!

On Top:   1- HOT SNITZEL

Hardest To Beat:   5- SACRED STAR,  3- DANCES ON STARS,  12- MASTHEAD

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GIBBO BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 1 No.1- KING KAMADA

Best Interstate- Sydney Race 7 No.7- KRISTY LEE

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BRISBANE Quadrella:

*To be updated Saturday morning*

2,6,8,13 —— 2,4,5,6,14,17  —— 2,8,11,16,17 —– 1,3,5,12

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This weeks ‘Longshots’-

Race 5- THAT’S THE ONE +  Race 7- SANCERRE  (Both $15)

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‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 5 No.13- ELMANTOSH

Brisbane Race 8 No.5- SACRED STAR

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STEVE HEWLETT’s Best:

Brisbane Race 3 No.2- AKZAR

Brisbane Race 6 No.3- HUCKLEBUCK

-TattsBet

 

***TATTS MARKET MOVERS  + Gibbo’s DOUBLE TRIO numbers:

Double Trio (races 6 + 7)

2,4,5,6,14,17

+

1,2,8,11,16,17

*A bit quiet on the Jackpot front but I believe a $500,000 JACKPOT quaddie next week for Stradbroke day so organise some mates.