On ‘The Punt’ Prime Ministers cup day!

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“THE PUNT” section heads to the coast and with a 9 race day and capacity fields I am going to have to cut the preview down in places, so if your horse isn’t mentioned I may have just not found room in my top few.

*The Gold Coast is a tight track and can be almost impossible with capacity fields. It will be a tough day so I will be looking for value where possible as usual.

 

*Lets go!

*There will be a link to hear an interview later Friday at

www.helter-skelter.com.au

 

Track- GOLD COAST

Rail- TRUE entire.

Surface- Start Dead, should race Good.

blackbook

BLACKBOOKERS to follow: (Not our strongest week, but they will run well)

May 04
SKYTASTIC GOLD COAST R3 No.7 (1200m) : Nice horse, big jump in grade- Chance
PELLEGRINI  GOLD COAST R4 No.4 (1400m) : Well placed again.
FIRE UP FIFI GOLD COAST R7 No.13 (1300m) : Nice chance at good odds.
WAR ENDS GOLD COAST R7 No.18 (1300m) :
DELAGO PILLI GOLD COAST R7 No.21 (1300m) :
LIGHTS OF HEAVEN  GOLD COAST R8 No.13 (1800m) : Looks the winner.
THE CONSPIRATOR GOLD COAST R9 No.14 (1200m) : Blowout chance.
HEART TESTA HAWKESBURY R7 No.6 (1400m) : Underrated.
KAZANLUK MORPHETTVILLE R6 No.12 (1600m) : Nice e/w chance in open race.

 

*Prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing.

 

 

Race 1:

Extremely average staying race with an odds-on pop.  It should be the one but leave me out!

 

 

Race 2:

Speed from 1,3,4,5,7,8,14.

Believe it or not this is one of the races I am actually keen to have a bet in! Big field from a tricky starting point. ARADO does get back in his races but can sit midfield here and there should be a stack of speed on to let him rattle late. He gets in with just 52.5kg after the claim and at $15 he represents good value.

I think PERON is the best horse in the race and has the most upside. The 1200m is short of her best but her class will take her a long way and pace on is a big plus.

Many other nice horses, BALKUIN (2nd up), WHITESALES (who trialled well), SINISTER PRINCE and THEFT but happy to go with the horses off the pace.

*At $4.60 PERON and $15 ARADO you could nearly have win bets on both. ARADO is a nice e/w price for those who like him.

On Top: 11- ARADO

Hardest To Beat: 13- PERON

 

 

 

Race 3:

Tough.

DIAMOND OASIS brings solid Sydney form where he was beaten under 4L by Sidestep and Safegaurd, that is good enough here.

LONDAHERO for Matty Dunn gets the blinkers and that may well be the key. Nice gate (3) helps too.Matt Dunn Racing

SKYTASTIC was enormous on debut and can continue to improve. However the jump from the coast race and 4kg extra going up in grade is a concern.

MISSY LONGSTOCKING with a gate would have been a great bet but gate 17 a query. Would love to know if they push forward or back? My guess is they won’t want to scrub her out 1st up with bigger fish to fry.

LE VAL, VIENNA QUEEN and SIR MOMENTS probably next best and FLORID AFFAIR the interesting runner dropping back from a Group 1?

*Not overly keen!

 

 

 

 

Race 4:

Again more than enough speed generated by the big field to give all their chance.

I like the fact Heathcote is backing PELLEGRINI up and it will again roll somewhere forward which is how Colless rides them best. He may run along again but I’d like to see him take a sit and Colless nurse him in the box seat.

The stablemate TAIL AND ALL is the horse to beat and with luck from the gate I think it can run over them. He was super consistent last prep and you are safe knowing he is going to put in.

PROST and ONETIMEATBANDCAMP run around in these races each week and are always capable when they produce their best.

ALCANCIA is flying for an in form stable, FLYING JET hasn’t had things to suit and will improve sharply. TRAGEDY will get it run to suit and I feel PURFECTRESS is worth thoughts for trifecta’s.

 

On Top: 5- TAIL AND ALL

Others: 4- PELLEGRINI,

topline

 

 

Race 5:

I have no doubt EXPRESS POWER has lengths on most of these. Is she good enough to overcome gate 17? This is a tough starting point and she does usually race forward. I would love to see them ride her quiet and try to get a tow into the race around the 800m as I think she would be too good, but there is the question of rolling forward and being caught 3-4 wide with no cover?

Cahill is on HOLD ME TIGHT and jumps off GERMAYNE LASS which I find strange. Really liked GERMAYNE LASS’ last run and she will take great improvement from that as it looked as though she peaked at the 50m mark.

VAQUERA is a nice filly who will no doubt be better next prep. She will have to improve a few lengths again here, but she is capable of doing that.

FANTISHA and CATALONIA are two of the best locals who fought out the listed race a fortnight ago. They can run well but will get back and need luck in running from their inside gates. Horses coming back on them could be an issue with fillies getting to 1800m for the first time.

ZOMBIE DANCER is a progressive type for Greg Eurell. Has continued to improve and forgive the effort last start.

SOAPY STAR will get the cheap run 2 or 3 pairs back for Avdulla and will get to peel of and look the winner at the 200m. I think on breeding she will see the trip out and drops weight on her last two runs that were very good.

Cant split the Lees pair 1 + 3, but feel EXPRESS POWER may be very good, and will need to be from the gate.

On Top: 3-EXPRESS POWER

Hardest To Beat: 1-SOAPY STAR,  9- GERMAYNE LASS,  7- VAQUERA

 

 

 

Race 6:

Very open race, good luck first leg of the quaddie!

I’m happy to have two little win bets on a couple of the locals. WHATEVERWHENEVER $26 is surprising. She is coming off a long break but she went to Melbourne and beat King’s Rose in a G3 race. She went to a new level that prep and with speed galore engaged her a big run would not surprise.

EMMALENE (SCR)is the other, she backed up in a week and had a float trip from Syd in between. It has been a fortnight since then, she should get a good run in transit her and with 54kg and at $8 she looks right in it.

BOUND TO BLUSH is a terrific mare who gets the gun run with Tim Clark on board and will start a deserved fav.

KARUTA QUEEN will push hard and lead with the 58kg and should be pretty wound up after 3 runs back.

DETOURS, PETTY CURY and ARCTIC FLIGHT may be the best of the rest but I wouldn’t talk you out of any!

On Top Selections:   3- WHATEVERWHENEVER  $26  +   13- BOUND TO BLUSH

Hardest To Beat-  2,4,7

 

 

Race 7:

Really interested to see if they push forward and cross them with HOT SNITZEL. I think they could and probably should. MAHISARA is the other horse who will try to do the same thing. If they crossed on HOT SNITZEL they could even hand up to MAHISARA and take a sit 3rd the fence.

I do think they are class horses and if they do succeed in getting across they will be very hard to run down. MAHISARA takes a bit of racing to get fit and the 1600m run would have him cherry ripe now. He was beaten by Skyerush that day and she has romped in since.

FAMOUS SEAMUS put the writing on the wall last start winning and he keeps Colless on top, gate 3 and out to 1300m which is a positive.

STEEL ZIP, FIRE UP FIFI, RIVER LAD and BELLTONE the best of the locals (PHELAN READY also if you are hoping he can win his 3rd race in 37 starts? He should go in tri’s though)

BELLTONE now added to quad, feel he may be value that should be added.

 

On Top: 12- MAHISARA

Hardest To Beat:  1- HOT SNITZEL, 4- FAMOUS SEAMUS, 13- FIRE UP FIFI

 

 

Race 8:

Pretty keen on LIGHTS OF HEAVEN and the $3 on Tatts may be snapped up. I wouldn’t want her a lot shorter but she is my clear top select. She gave some decent horses weight lumping 58kg and winning easy in the G3 Sellwood last start. She has had a freshen up and back to 1800m not an issue. While a lot of these have come through their grand finals, she has her three goals starting now.

Outside of her you can make claims for a few but each has a question.

FORETELLER is going really well but drops from 2400-1800m.

SOLZHENITSYN well suited and gets a dry track. Did however miss a run and may need this, but must respect. He is the biggest danger to the fav.

STOUT HEARTED and LIGHTINTHENITE both relatively lightly raced and have some upside but WFA the question.

On Top:  13- LIGHTS OF HEAVEN

Hardest To Beat: 5- SOLZHENITSYN

 

 

Race 9:

Are we alive in the quad? Good luck if so!

Many will have SIZZLING down as a ‘moral’ but I’m not sure there is such a thing on this track with a big field? He is all class and never runs a bad race. At set weights he has to be the top rater and the $3 on offer is probably the right mark. There are some nice horses here so he is not over the line.

LUKE’S LUCK is a very good W.A horse now with the in-form Schweida stable. His form around Power Princess and Luckygray is sensational and he returns a gelding. He may get back from the gate, but I’d expect him to fly late.

ACADEMUS returns from a decent break and although 1400m-1600 may be his best trip, from the good gate he will run very well.

The best of the QLD horses should be PLATINUM STATE who ran 2nd to SIZZLING fresh last preparation and SALUTER who comes off the 3yr old Magic Millions win.

DANCES ON STARS $9 has been gelded and that may well be the key to this horse as he did mix his form a lot before.

SOOKIE is the best filly in the race and goes very well. The issue is the wide gate. They are likely to go back and hope for luck. AL ANEED gets the gun gate to give him every chance and $21 may be a bit generous.

*Possibly the best race of the day and the form will stack up in the future. The horse with the best ride and a bit of luck will win.

 

On Top: 6- PLATINUM STATE

Hardest To Beat: 1- SIZZLING, 4- ACADEMUS, 2- SALUTER

 

 

 

GIBBO’s BEST BETS:The Piney (Updated after 9am on Saturday.)

Gold Coast Race 8 No.13 LIGHTS OF HEAVEN  $3

Best e/w – Gold Coast Race 2 No.11 ARADO  $15

 

This weeks best ‘Longshot’-  Gold Coast Race 6 No.3 WHATEVERWHENEVER $26

 

Best Allup-

Melb Rc 3 No.6- STRAWBERRY BOY +

Belmont Rc 3 No.1 BACK TO WALK  +

GC Rc 8 No.13 LIGHTS OF HEAVEN

@ around $ 11.90

 

 

GOLD COAST QUADRELLA: (Obviously many punters may go wider in the 3rd leg and anchor Sizzling in last, but I have gone this way)

2,3,4,7,13 —– 1,4,5,6,12,13 —–  13 —–  1,2,3,4,5,6               guide to cost-            $36    =  20%    or   $72  =  40%

 

FLEMINGTON Quadrella:

2,4,7,8 —– 1,2,3,7,15 —- 1,3,5,8,11 —- 4,11                                    guide to cost                        $50  = 25%

 

THE PROPHET’s BEST BETS:

Gold coast Race 6 No.13 BOUND TO BLUSH

Melbourne Race 8 No.11 SWEET AS BRO

 

TATTS jackpots and Market Movers:TattsBet

GOLD COAST

2/9 Keep It Moist $17/$12

2/13 Peron $5.0/$4.6

6/7 Pretty Cury $21/$17

7/5 Phelan Ready $13/$11

8/10 Stout Hearted $15/$13

9/1 Sizzling $3.2/$3.0

9/7 Rocky King $35/$21

HAWKESBURY

Nothing to report

FLEMINGTON

4/3 Lidari $3.0/$2.85

MORPHETTVILLE

7/2 Hioctdane $4.2/$3.7

 

*Bet responsibly.

 

*Thanks for checking in guys, check out the other articles from the week and good luck if you have a bet!!