On ‘The Punt’ QLD Oaks Day

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A big day at Eagle Farm awaits, including Group 1 action. There have been heavy showers during the middle of the week and there are still some showers predicted. As many punters know this track is well passed the use by date and any rain during the meeting would ruin the day. If we can strike a clear day I’m sure the track will race well and it is a different proposition than Doomben as most horses get their chance to balance up here with the much longer straight.

There are a few horses I feel look winner but don’t represent value in early markets. As usual we will look for winners where possible.

 

TRACK- EAGLE FARM

RAIL- +3.5M the entire course.

SURFACE- (I have done form on a SLOW/HEAVY track)blackbook

(THE PUNT will be updated after 8:30am Saturday morning scratchings)

 

BLACKBOOK Runners:

SATURDAY, 1 JUNE 2013
Baleen In Me – Belmont R3 No.2 (1000m): Nice horse.
Raeburn – Eagle Farm R2 No.1 (1818m): May need one more hitout?
Fire Up Fifi – Eagle Farm R4 No.4 (1500m): Looks the winner.
Academus – Eagle Farm R6 No.3 (1400m): Very hard to beat.
Lilliburlero – Eagle Farm R6 No.19 (1400m): One for trifecta’s.
Gondokoro – Eagle Farm R7 No.4 (2400m): Deserved fav.
Miss Stellabelle – Eagle Farm R8 No.11 (1300m): ? Tough race, worth thought.

 

 

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at the time of typing.

 

Race 1:

SIR MOMENTS looks the winner at first glance here off his dominate win in the Dalrello. He looks to be on the improve and will take a stack of beating. I’m not one to back them at even money but you could play tri’s with him.

If you’re looking outside of him I think CHOISENEGGER will get a very good run from gate 1 and can give some cheek at nearly double figure odds. He was in much easier company last start and it was just a confidence building ‘kill’ I’d suspect. Goes ok on his day and fitter for two runs back.

More chances but won’t be getting too involved.

 

Value-  5-CHOISENEGGER

 

 

 

 

Race 2:

Very open 1800m event.

I can find a heap of reasons why a lot of these can’t win and not many reasons why one can!!

I have landed on MARKOUT at $10 as I type. He was in good form before he had a month between runs and ran 2nd at the GC. He had 59kg on that occasion and drops 6kg here. Loves this track with a couple of wins here and has won 2 and placed the other time he has run at 1800m. He handles all conditions and if the rain ruins the track it won’t worry him.

Outside of him you have to search. TRAJET won a 75 rating race at Scone well…. Ok form here before it. If the track didn’t get too wet he may be the horse to beat but under $4 for him doesn’t interest me. SECRET GARDEN handles all conditions but surprisingly saves her best for other tracks and not EF..

*Happy to back MARKOUT at the price but not going silly.

On Top: 11- MARKOUT e/w

 

tattsbet

 

 

Race 3:

$160,000 to the winner and we get 6 to line up? Pitiful.

For that reason the pace of the race is likely to be ordinary if not farcical. I can think of better ways to do my money so I will be staying out of this.

 

NOT INTERESTED at all.

 

 

Race 4:

Finally a race I am pretty keen on. I have been waiting for FIRE UP FIFI to get out around the mile mark and this 1500m around Eagle Farm is spot on! Browne can put her wherever he likes from the inside gate and I rekon about 5th the fence would be perfect. She is a nice mare who is suited in this.

LISTEN SON will lead them here and he can run a very good race if the track stays dry (which probably won’t happen)

HOUR OF PERIL + LONGSHOREMAN are great wet trackers and both should enjoy a chopped up EF if that occurs. TOKAMAK and PROST can run well but probably want it dead or better to be real chances.

*She is short enough but looks the winner..

On Top: 4- FIRE UP FIFI

If Slow or Heavy-    Trifecta-    4  — 8,10 — field

 

 

 

Race 5:

Track conditions have a major impact here! How is the track playing? Any bias? It’s a guessing game till 2.25 Saturday!

Plenty of pace through  1,2,6,12,13,14.. The runs of the race should go to DETOURS and PRINCESS LAYLA who can camp just in behind the pace from favourable draws.

DETOURS is the obvious mare here. She comes of the Silk Stocking win, gets the good gate, a fair weight and runs well on any surface. I’d be shocked if she wasn’t right in this again. Darley and McEvoy are going very well.

A couple at decent odds if we are on a slow surface are CLASSICS (also for Darley) who is 1st up but had a few trials leading in so should be fit enough. She is by a wet track sire, goes extremely well fresh and nice odds at $17. The other is SHARNEE ROSE $9 who has 2 placings from 2 slow track starts and her run over 1100m on a bias Scone track was good. She meets SATIN SHOES 3kg better off and getting to the 1200m on a bigger track is a big tick!

DYSTOPIA is a genuine G1-2 performer, I’m just wondering if she is just past her absolute best.. PRINCESS LAYLA is unknown on a wet track but I think can be a big improver.. BOUND TO BLUSH may just want a better surface then we may get? And CITY OF SONG would have been in my top couple on top of the ground. She is in good form and the ground is my only concern.

*Watch track conditions closely. CLASSICS worth something on at the odds.

On Top: 9- CLASSICS

Hardest To Beat: 4- DETOURS,  10- SHARNEE ROSE

 

 topline

 

Race 6:

SIZZLING blinkers on! Can that do the trick? Yep it sure can. I can’t believe how quick people have wanted to jump off him. 1400m is more to his liking, Eagle Farm is his track (4 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs here) and with any luck he gets a bit of cover and can sit on the outside of horses. The blinkers are just another tick. He is 2 from 2 on a heavy surface and they were dominant wins. I think we will see the real SIZZLING here and hopefully that’s enough to win.

ACADEMUS is flying and has to be the horse to beat. He ran 2nd to SIZZLING on a heavy track last year and is going better now. The race didn’t pan out last start but he was probably the best run in the race.

PLATINUM KINGDOM will eat the mud and was dominant in SYD 3 runs back on those conditions. Nice win last start when things played into his hands. He is a legitimate chance again here.

BOBAN is going particularly well. Not really known if it gets wet but Bowman can sit in a nice spot from gate 4.

COMPLICATE and LILLIBURLERO can both sit somewhere near the pace and I feel the wet will suit them just fine. COMPLICATE is on the way up and is underrated.

*Lots of other chances but I can’t mention all. Keeping the faith with SIZZLING.

 

On Top: 1- SIZZLING

Hardest To Beat: 6- PLATINUM KINGDOM,  3-ACADEMUS,  9-COMPLICATE

 

 Matt Dunn Racing

 

Race 7:

A shame about the rain but this could still be a great Oaks.

No doubt DEAR DEMI and GONDOKORO deserve favouritism and both are right in this but there are some horses at nice odds with every chance of rolling them.

GONDOKORO was incredible late in the Roses and has to be the filly to beat. She ran in the big Sydney races, and ran well. The bigger track and the step up in trip are a help and she will be the strongest late.

I was taken with VAQUERA in the Roses. She was the best of the horses on pace that day in what was a real ‘swoopers’ race because of the pace. Rodd will know her better and there is no need to bustle her to much early from the good gate. She can easily sit around 5th-6th and she will look the winner at the 200m. Has this come a bit early for her? Possibly but she does have a sense of timimg about her and she is on the way up still. She is $13 but I wouldn’t be surprised if she started better than that.

SOAPY STAR is a question at the trip but is a dead set swimmer. Respect on that alone. PROPER MADAME is $17 and a real one pacer who has some chance if it is still raining race day. JUST AS COSMIC was very good in the Roses and I am more than forgiving of EXPRESS POWER who was sore after that race when starting fav.

MISS ZENELLA a Zabeel filly on the rise for Moody and Nolen… Big jump in grade but she may be one out of the box?

*GONDOKORO is the one to beat. VAQUERA will be the value. I will probably back both.

On Top:  4- GONDOKORO           Value:  8- VAQUERA

 TRIFECTA-   4,8 — 4,7,8,17 — 1,2,3,7,8,17

 

 

 

Race 8:

I was very keen STARTSMEUP and MAHISARA all week until the rain but really hard to get a grip on this race now.

HOT SNITZEL, BORDER REBEL, GRIFFON and CELTIC DANCER are the swimmers in the race and I feel MISS STELLABELLE and GALAH are a couple that will handle it and be live chances.

CELTIC DANCER and BORDER REBEL push forward as does MAHISARA most likely. All of those have nice light weights and can be hard to run down.

Even though I blackbooked MISS STELLABELLE I wasn’t that keen on her at first glance but she drops 5kg on her last couple of runs at Listed level and at her only start on a Slow surface she got the money in a G3 event. Munce takes the ride and he may sit her up 5th or so and get a nice track into the race. $6.50 is probably around the mark for her.

GALAH has promised plenty and not delivered a great deal. He was only beaten 2L in a weak G1 last start and I think he gets his chance on the minimum weight to win a decent race. As long as you can make ground late in the day he has to be respected.

My question with GRIFFON is that his recent records say he is best fresh, so 3rd up on the back-up may not be great, but if Heathcote runs him he must going well.

*Nothing would surprise. Follow the money and any bias if there is one on the day.

On Top: 11- MISS STELLABELLE

Hardest to beat: 16- GALAH,  3- HOT SNITZEL

 pineapple

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS

Not overly keen to make a best on the shifty Eagle Farm..

 

BRISBANE Quadrella

3,4,6,9,10 — 1,3,6,9 — 1,4,8,15 — 3,11,12,16

 

 

This weeks ‘Longshots’-  May be worth something sneaky on these.

Race 7 No.8 VAQUERA  (may get to juicy odds raceday)

Race 5 No. 9 CLASSICS

 

 PERTH Quadrella  –  2,4,5,7 —- 1,3,5,7,10 —-  2 —-   1                $20  =  100%

 

 

‘THE PROPHET’s’ BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 2 No.9 BLOW A KISS  $26

Brisbane Race 6 No.6 PLATINUM KINGDOM  $6

Brisbane Race 7 No.3 KAZANLUK   $26

 

 You should be able to hear a chat with AJ at 

www.helter-skelter.com.au   later.

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS + Market Movers:

EAGLE FARMTattsBet

2/1 RAEBURN $15/$13

4/8 HOUR OF PERIL $11/$9.5

4/10 LONGSHOREMAN $10/$7

5/9 CLASSICS $17/$13

6/19 LILLIBURLERO $9/$8

7/3 SOAPY STAR $15/$12

8/4 STARTSMEUP $11/$10

8/8 BORDER REBEL $21/$17

 

ROSEHILL NOTHING OF NOTE TO REPORT

 

SANDOWN

2/1 BLOOMINGDALE MISS $8.5/$6.0

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 1 June 2013

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

EAGLE FARM (BR)

7

$122,609

QUEENSLAND OAKS

EX

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

8

$16,575

0 – 75 HANDICAP

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

3

$2,000

SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (2YO FILLIES)

F4

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

4

$2,000

SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (2YO C&G)

F4

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

5

$2,000

SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (3YO FILLIES)

F4

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

6

$2,000

SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (3YO C&G)

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$30,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$10,000

SOUTHERN CROSS CONSOLATION (2YO C&G)

 

HERE IS A TATTS PREVIEW with STEVE HEWLETT and WILL NORMAN

 

 

 

*Thanks for checking in. Feel free to copy and PRINT ‘The Punt’ section out if you are heading to the track or pub on the weekend!

 

Bet responsibly and good luck if you have a go at them…