On ‘The Punt’ Saturday- Doomben

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Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’.

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!blackbook

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*

BLACKBOOK Runners:

FRIDAY, 11 APRIL 2014

County Commands – Eagle Farm R2 No.6 (1000m): Colless on and the one to beat.

Crackerjet – Eagle Farm R8 No.7 (1400m): Looks placed pretty well and live chance.

SATURDAY, 12 APRIL 2014

Olympic Anthem – Doomben R7 No.7 (1350m): Nice win first up, should go on with it?

Detox – Morphettville R3 No.6 (1400m): Probably does want further but can run well. Underrated.

Office Bearer – Morphettville R7 No.5 (1100m): Hot race! This is the horse on the way up though and really well placed.

Gypsy Diamond – Randwick R2 No.1 (1600m): Major concern giving weight to the boys but she may just be good enough. Genuine Group 1 filly taking on group 2/3 males..

Politeness – Randwick R3 No.14 (1200m): Capacity field and gate 22…. If track allows you to win from there she will rocket late.

Royal Descent – Randwick R8 No.9 (1600m): How is track playing? Tough from the gate, but really good mare who can give this a shake.

Gypsy Diamond – Randwick R8 No.22 (1600m): Runs race 2?

 pineapple

NOTE:  Just a little note that this track should play ok but with a lot of racing in recent times, a lot of it after a bit of rain and the rail out 5m just watch the first few races to see if there is a pattern. My guess is it will be fair but probably won’t hurt to be sitting top 4-5 in the running early in the day.

I have done this preview on a GOOD SURFACE, anything other than that it has to be remembered and considered.

Race 1:

Really even 2yr old race. Prices not out as I type but assuming COMBATANT will jump fav and fair enough. Comes off a couple of good efforts when strong late and was a 5L winner two starts back.

SAMBUCA SHOT fought hard behind SHADOWSIDE to go down narrowly and that horse would be $1.90 here!

DESPINA couldn’t do anymore in her impressive win midweek. Got a toenail share in her so the fingers are crossed!

GIRLSGOGIDDYUP and RUNWAY ANGEL (BOTH SCRATCHED)are more than capable of winning without surprise and are better than latest efforts look.

On Top:   1- COMBATANT

Hardest to beat:  6, SAMBUCA SHOT,  8- DESPINA, 

 MaluaRacing...

Race 2:

Prepared to get egg on the face here and say people went off early on MARGINS. (SCRATCHED)I feel his best is 1600-1800m on decent ground. 2100m on a heavy track was never going to get my coin last time out. The very talented Wolfgram takes the ride, I’m still not overly keen on the 2030m but back onto better ground I am prepared to say he is the horse to beat. He will look the winner and last 100 may be hold your breath kind of stuff…

Away from him ARCTIC is in career best form, HIGH KIN is ready to put it all together and if he finds his best form 3rd up watch out. HIGH KIN and BRAVE ALI would really love a SLOW track but that looks unlikely unless the storm hits?

SECRET GARDEN and HEARTFELT QUEST must be respected for exotics.

*Looks even but think it is more suitable to MARGINS and giving him a chance here.

On Top:
(Would have backed MARGINS but will just watch on now)

 

 

Race 3:

Although BRADBURY CHOCOLATE has the ordinary gate there should be enough speed on to give her an opportunity to get home. At double figure odds and with the claim she gets her chance to turn the tables on GALLINARI. (The concern is if the track is playing to front runners)

GALLINARI finally got some luck last time out and was good enough to win. She may well go on with it here getting the run of the race again.

ELUSIVE STORM was good fresh and will again push forward. She did beat Kentucky Woman on that occasion and she won a good race last Saturday to frank the form.

TICKET TO DREAM was a mixed effort last week, looked to have a few excuses but never looked a winning chance. Good enough to win this on her day and LADY COLOURS similar but wants some rain.

TAMBO’S JEWEL will look the winner and from gate 1 gets the chance to run out 1350m at this level.

*Hoping you can make ground*

On Top Value:  1- BRADBURY CHOCOLATE

Hardest To Beat:  7- GALLINARI,  3- ELUSIVE STORM, 4- TAMBO’S JEWEL

 Matt Dunn Racing

Race 4:

The market is all over this like white on rice. The top 4 look the only chances and it looks thin behind them.

Although beaten less than two lengths I was disappointed in FINAL CRESCENDO and more than happy to follow him again. He is up to this in my opinion and a recent trial was very good! Cahill takes the ride.

$4-5 early about LE CAP is probably a great price, the horse is airborne and no doubt better on top of the ground, class got him home on the heavy track last time out. The only hurdle is the 58kg.

COVERT CHAMOUR is screaming for a win and going better than form looks on paper. The only reason I have leant towards the other two is this bloke has to overcome gate 9. It’s not the end of the world, just a little negative compared to the others draws.

Best of the rest LITTLE LONG HORN, have him as a better horse on a wet track but can trouble these from the good gate.

On Top:  4- FINAL CRESCENDO

Hardest To Beat:  1- LE CAP, 2- COVERT CHARMOUR, 3- LITTLE LONG HORN

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Race 5:

This race has changed complexion with LOVE ROCKS AND THE STOREMAN scratched!

Gee this is hard to work out. LOVE ROCKS 1st up, gate 12, does he still push forward from this starting point which is never ideal. There is also pace underneath him through THE STOREMAN (gate 7), FLORAL INSIGHT (1), EXCELLANTES (4) and FLORIDA FELLOW (10). He may still get across but you have to wonder how much petrol he spends?? In saying that If he turns up as good as he was last prep he still probably wins!!

THE STOREMAN (Believe hes going to Toowoomba)  just needs a dry track, he did win on a ‘shifty’ dead track last start but is lengths better when it is dry. If he strikes a Good track he will run very good.

EXCELLANTES was always very consistent but has mixed his form for a prep or two. He gets all the favours and can camp 4th-5th here and get a terrific run without spending a penny. Gets his chance.

SEEKING MORE, ALTAI WARRIOR and SPORTING PAGE are all chances of adding value to exotics.

*Not overly keen here. Just not sure exactly how hard they go in front, looks plenty of speed. This is Excellantes chance to run over them if good enough.

On Top:   1- EXCELLANTES

Hardest To Beat:  12- ALTAI WARRIOR  $51,  9- PURE PURRFECTION, 4- SEEKING MORE

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Race 6:

Very difficult race. I don’t think there is much speed here. Expecting Munce to be positive on HEART OF MANY and he should get a decent time of it on or outside the lead. KURTLEY will probably try to get the run of the race 3rd.

Like the fact KURTLEY has form around Just A Pearla who has come out and won since and HEART OF MANY ran well when flushed out early and wide against KISS ME DEADLY who has gone on to win again. They are good signs and both horses strip fitter for those runs. Should be rock hard fit now and very little between them.

What do we make of DYSFUNCTION. I was super keen last week and she was given no hope. If they got back to 3rd last in that race then from gate 11 she has to have an even worse run? Do they run? She gets the drier track to suit so afraid to say no even with all the negatives.

EMPRESS ME in a similar boat, she comes of a win but concerned that she will spot them a start off the slow speed. TRAGEDY the best of the rest from the inside gate.

On Top:  3- HEART OF MANY

Next Best:  1- KURTLEY

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Race 7:

This could be the trick race.. Very dangerous as a fair few have the heavy track form which can be misleading, some will have been flattered and others looked flat that could jump out of the ground.

Case in point in FRIENDLY DRAGON who was just ok but his form on top of the ground is far superior and don’t sell him short.

Not completely sold RUDY ($6) is just a wet tracker, reckon he will be underrated if track id dry and may surprise a few. Got the job done for us at $7 last time out so owes nothing.

BODEGA NEGRA has had the 3 trial leading into this 1350m fresh which should have him ready.

OLYMPIC ANTHEM was terrific first up in an easier race. Will have a task from the wide gate but is on the way up.

Respecting the Meagher’s with VINTAGE COGNAC. The kind of races he has been in usually hold up ok in Qld and he got close to a couple of good ones early in career. A big run wouldn’t surprise.

We see the return of a very good horse in SHIRAZ ATTACK. Probably thought she would go to 1200m 1st up but have no doubt she is the best horse in the race. Not exactly a push button horse and has got into some awkward spots in some of her races but with avg luck she can run over the top of these at set weights.

*Thinking Rudy may be forgotten if track is good/dead, prepared to give him a go at the odds.

On Top:   2- RUDY

Hardest To Beat:   13- SHIRAZ ATTACK

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Race 8:

Everyone has them- One of ‘THOSE’ horses that is impossible to catch, NOISY OCEAN is one of mine. A very handy horse on his day, always seems to be in the market and usually pops up when least expected! He is a blowout chance.

The race actually looks pretty weak for most part but there are 3 or 4 chances that have very strong form lines.

*The four horses that can fight this out all get decent runs within the top 5 settling which will help their cause.

JUST A PEARLA ran 2nd to Buakaw and then come out and beat Timeless Prince who has since come out and won. That ties in nicely and should get a decent enough time up front again. Would love it wet but goes ok on top of the ground.

CUM DIVIDEND was ridden a treat by Wolfgram (who keeps the ride here) and smashed a midweek field last run. The 1350m really sees him out in my mind but he was strong late last run. Ready for 1350m now?

CARMORA is potentially the best horse in the race and returns from 70 days off, I may be wrong but my suggestion is that was because they are targeting the carnival, and if that’s the case you want him to go very close here. Blinkers off is interesting.

FIVE O’CLOCK has the Harada Bay form so far from the worst.

CRACCO is no star but as honest as they get. Six starts this track and trip and never been out of the money. He ran 3rd last time out to Baukaw and Pitt Street which lines up well, was giving them weight that day and drops 2.5kg here. This looks tailor made and he will again be there fighting out what looks to be a competitive race for those mentioned.

*Could be CRACCO’S time to break through on a Saturday, but I am taking the odds CARMORA can camp outside the lead and class can carry him home.

On Top:  11- CARMORA   $6

Next Best:  8- CRACCO,  9- JUST A PERLA,  7- CUM DIVIDEND

 TattsBet

GIBBO BEST BETS:

Nothing really solid today but these couple e/w around $5-6 look a bit of value and get the right runs.

Race 6 No.3- HEART OF MANY e/w

Race 8 No.11- CARMORA e/w

(I do think we can get a few of the BLACKBOOKERS running well!)

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BRISBANE Quadrella:

1,4,9,12 —— 1,3,8 —— 2,5,13 —— 8,9,11

This weeks ‘Longshot’- Not so much a longshot, but ‘Value’ bet is BRADBURY CHOCOLATE (Rc3 No.1)

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‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

*Sydney Race 7 No.5- REBEL DANE

*Brisbane Race 6 No.1- KURTLEY

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STEVE HEWLETT’S Best:

Tatts never sleeps

***TATTS MARKET MOVERS  + Gibbo’s DOUBLE TRIO numbers:

$$$  200,000 QUADRELLA JACKPOT  — Sydney!!