On ‘The Punt’ Slipper day

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Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’. Back to EAGLE FARM and your guess is as good as mine when it comes to how this track plays!! If it is dry it will be fine, if it is DEAD or worse it is a lotto….

 

 

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*blackbook

You can hear a chat with AJ here

http://www.helter-skelter.com.au/

BLACKBOOK Runners:

SATURDAY,   5 APRIL 2014
Runway   Angel –   Eagle Farm R1 No.10 (1000m):
Vandalised – Eagle Farm R6   No.6 (1400m):
Harada   Bay –   Eagle Farm R6 No.7 (1400m): Leading chance and well placed
Beatniks – Eagle Farm R7   No.1 (1400m): Even race, nice chance
Fairytale   Belle –   Eagle Farm R7 No.2 (1400m): Same as above comment
Some   Call Her Wild –   Eagle Farm R7 No.14 (1400m): Goes forward which is advantage in this   race.

 

 

 

Race 1:

I can’t line these up. Have looked over all the different form lines and not willing to bet.

MaluaRacing...

 

Race 2:

First of all, what a disappointing race with just 6 acceptors.. Anyway it does look the perfect race 3rd up for LADY ECHELON, but $2 and possibly shorter on race day is not for me. HEARTFELT QUEST and KISS ME DEADLY are both in good form and RAEBURN also going well.

*Another one I am going to leave.

 

 

Race 3:

Nothing would surprise. I have never been able to catch FRETON. He had been racing well but being clearly held in races and then smacks them by nearly 3L? Can he back it up? Possibly but as I said, I can’t catch him.

COLLAR and SCARBOROUGH both have solid enough form to be first 4 chances but I am leaning to CASARATI and HARBOR SPRINGS. Both dropping back from 2100m races but the 1800m around EF is ideal for both. They will both settle midfield and that could be a query as the speed does not look strong, however they look the two main chances in my mind.

On Top:   9- CASARATI    +    10- HARBOR SPRINGS

 

 

Race 4:

I like the look of this race. DYSFUNCTION is double figures, TAMBO’S JEWEL is airborne while QUICK WITTED is ready to produce.

I would probably rather QUICK WITTED going up in trip instead of back to 1500m but I’m sure she won’t be ridden as aggressive this time out. The effort was still good last start when she fought well.

TAMBO’S JEWEL gets in well for Matheson after the claim and I think he is an underrated hoop. This horse is going particularly good and just needs a pinch of luck from gate 10 to be the one to beat again.

If TAMBO’S JEWEL doesn’t get the luck early DYSFUNCTION is the other horse going as well as ever and the No Metrop Win conditions looks ideal. He has improved each run and gets a nice run to unleash late. Track record at EF is very ordinary but as mentioned he is going better now and at $10-11 he may be worth the risk here.

*Working around TAMBO’S JEWEL, DYSFUNCTION and QUICK WITTED and may even have them in a quinella.

On Top:  7- DYSFUNCTION

Hardest To Beat:  1- TAMBO’S JEWEL,  6- QUICK WITTED

Quinella:  1,6,7

 

Denman filly

 

Race 5:

I would be very keen on a horse like GDAY OLD MATE in a race like this but I simply don’t think it is ideal dropping from 1400m back to 1000m. He is a chance but hard to see him having the same sprint in his legs as a fresh horse like LA TIKKA ROSA. The speed will be decent here and I can see Colless just swinging of LA TIKKA ROSA for as long as possible and then releasing the brakes at the 250m and going by them..

CUDDLESOME is not known for her 1st up record or her 1000m record but she is the class horse and even with 57.5kg I would be respecting.

Interesting runner is the Victorian OVERRIDE who is a 1000m specialist and carries about 5kg less than he has in a lot of recent runs.

SHAFEEQ, BAHSA, MR FAVULOUS and TERMS OF TRADE all good 1000m horses but I am keen LA TIKKA ROSA.

On Top:  8- LA TIKKA ROSA

 

 

Race 6:

This is incredibly even. Followers will know how much I think of HARADA BAY and from the good gate with the clever claim he is again the horse to beat and gets in beautifully. In saying that, early markets have him around $2.50 which is bloody short in my opinion. ($3.60 TATTS is the best I can find and a fair price)

If you look for value there is plenty around.

BUAKAW has won 3 of last 4, stays on the same weight as impressive 1.3L win last time out and is around $7

PITT STREET has form around BUAKAW and Leebaz, has Colless on top and is around $10

VANDALISED has won 5 straight in cracking style up north and should be well respected. A nice horse around the $10 mark.

SPARKLING SOUND a stupid price at $21, CAELLUM comes of a lower grade win but is $15

And KENTUCKY WOMEN is the one we are still learning about and may prove the fly in the ointment for her older and more experienced rivals if she continues to progress with just 52.5kg.

KEEP IT MOIST in new camp and also gets a nice run from the gate and has won similar races.

*Will leave this with you to decide. $3.60 may get some of mine with HARADA BAY but can see value amongst others.

On Top:  7- HARADA BAY

Next best:  1- BUAKAW,  4- PITT STREET,  14- KENTUCKY WOMEN

pineapple

 

Race 7:

Set weights fillies! Really interesting to see most of the chances will get a long way back in what looks a race with just an even tempo?? Luck in running will play a massive part.

A horse like QUEEN OF THE LOCHS gets in extremely well after winning 4 races and $205,000 and gets to carry the same as midweek maiden winners. She does however get an ordinary gate and is going to need a bit of luck in running. Blinkers go on first time.

SOME CALL HER WILD gave most of these a beating last start and meets most of them about 1.5kg better off for winning! She is another quality filly who just needs luck from the gate. Her big asset is that she will push forward and may offset the gate, if she can settle first 4 in running she will take some beating.

QUEST FOR PEACE ran in some very strong races in Melb including starting $8 one day against Derby winner Polanski.  Munce takes the ride and she should settle back and be strong late.

TINTO simply needs 1400m and gets it here. Again Colless will have to be patient early and will need some luck on straightening, but this horse is more than capable.

The O’Dea pair are blackbookers and both will be well found. They are crying out for 1400m and other than the slight swing in weights (a negative way) this is exactly what they are after, 1400m on a big track. Keep both safe BEATNIKS and FAIRYTALE BELLE.

Same goes for LITTLE BIT DITSY, she has a ‘flat spot’ in her races and I think getting to the 1400m will only help her cause and gate 2 should help her find the fence.

NAVELINA a classy filly who does want further but fresh over this trip means she is more than capable. Decent form in good races!

Even SATIRICAL LASS and SNAPCRAKLE are far from the worst.

***Cracking race, anything could happen and probably will! I thought it was hard to make ground out wide and BEATNIKS did that last time out, have her just on top along with TINTO.

On top:  1- BEATNIKS   +     15- TINTO

 

 

 

 

Race 8:

Good speed here with COMMANDARE wanting to hold the fence, whether it be leading or box seat, WHO WILL, JEFFERSON PARK and PURE WHISPER are all drawn wide and rip across together to put pace into it early!

I have no idea what to make of BRIBIE but he is going to find form and pop up one of these days at big odds!

EMERALD DUKE is one of the most promising horses in QLD and gets gate 3 for Colless! He will be smoking his pipe behind the speed and if he has actually progressed from last prep he should win. Has he progressed?

COMMANDARE has only missed a place 1 of last 11 runs. JEFFERSON PARK had every chance the other week but was only beaten a neck by The Storeman. A similar performance goes close here.

HLUDOWIG was terrific 1st up and is in the Blackbook, only concern is an ordinary 2nd up record.

ALDINI yet to win here but liked latest effort at the coast.

MORE LEVERAGE is hard to guide, promised a lot and although an easier race last start he was impressive and may go on with it?

On Top:  6- EMERALD DUKE

TattsBet

GIBBO BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 5 No.8- LA TIKKA ROSA

Best each way

Brisbane Race 4 No.7- DYSFUNCTION

Brisbane Race 8 No.6- EMERALD DUKE

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BRISBANE Quadrella:

8   ——-   1,4,6,7,14  ——-  1,2,4,6,9,14,15  ——  1,2,6,13

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This weeks ‘Longshot’- Sydney Race 7 No.6- SUAVITO  $15

 

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets: (We have selected the same horses, hopefully a good sign!)

Brisbane race 3 No.10- HARBOR SPRINGS

Brisbane Race 8 No.6- EMERALD DUKE

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STEVE HEWLETTS best:

 

***TATTS MARKET MOVERS  + Gibbo’s DOUBLE TRIO numbers:

 Tatts never sleeps

****DOUBLE TRIO NUMBERS:  JACKPOT pool $21,734

3,4,5,9,10,11,13

2,3,5,6,13,16,17