On ‘The Punt’ Stradbroke Day

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It is the biggest day of racing in QLD and you’re kidding if you are not excited!

Fingers crossed we don’t get any rain during the meeting. If we avoid the rain Eagle Farm will hold up ok, if it hits the question is how bad does it get? I would be waiting late to bet and not getting carried away in early markets. That is just my opinion, but so is the whole article, you can make what you want of the information.

It’s a cracking day and hopefully Brissyraces can help you find a few winners. Feel free to print ‘The Punt’ section out for you and mates to hit the track with!

Track: EAGLE FARM

RAIL: TRUE

Surface : Preview is done on a Dead trackblackbook

 

BLACKBOOK runners:

Someday – Eagle Farm R2 No.12 (1600m): Very suitable race.

Academus – Eagle Farm R3 No.1 (1600m): Well placed.

Lilliburlero – Eagle Farm R3 No.14 (1600m): Rough chance.

Fire Up Fifi – Eagle Farm R5 No.12 (1400m): Would rather her at 1600m but racing incredibly well.

Perfectly Stunning – Eagle Farm R5 No.17 (1400m): Wouldn’t surprise

Zoustar – Eagle Farm R6 No.1 (1600m): Comes off a great win.

Vilanova – Eagle Farm R6 No.3 (1600m): Big chance, rain would help

Paximadia – Eagle Farm R6 No.8 (1600m): Really like him e/w at the value

Survived – Eagle Farm R7 No.4 (2400m): Him and the filly are the best horses

Gondokoro – Eagle Farm R7 No.18 (2400m): (as above)

Belltone – Eagle Farm R8 No.13 (1400m): Gets the right run to be competitive.

Smart Moochi – Randwick R3 No.5 (1400m): Should be competitive.

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

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Race 1:

I can’t go past COSMIC ENDAVOUR here. Yes she is stepping up from a maiden to a Listed race and very few ever win when they attempt it but she looks the goods. She has got early pace but from the good gate I’m sure Cassidy to take a sit if he would prefer. She had gate 14 on debut and won by 3.3L but the best thing was the time on the day, she ran about 2L quicker than the benchmark 75 and 5L quicker than the other 2yr old race.

BERNABEU (SCR) is by Fastnet Rock and started fav on a heavy track for debut. He may well improve a lot from the run and can win here.

MISSY LONGSTOCKING didn’t have a lot of luck last start but I’m not one buying into she was any chance at that time. She may have been an outstanding 2 yr old and just a nice 3yr old who has not progressed.

HALLSIDE ROSE nearly beat MISSY last start and is underrated while CHILWERO is as green as grass but has a lot of upside for Bougoure. It nearly fell at Rocky and he will hit the line well but his manners are the main query.

*Not a race I’m overly keen on at the prices.

On Top:  13- COSMIC ENDEAVOUR

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Race 2:

A bit of pace should be generated here through 3,5,9,13 all going forward.Matt Dunn Racing

TRANSPORTER $3.50 has the form on the board. If you like Solzhenitsyn in the Straddie surely you think this is a good thing? He drops back from a G2 and G3 placings at WFA and has 57.5kg in this Listed event. Loves the big track and has won or placed in 7 of 8 at this trip. He is the one they have to get passed.

SOMEDAY $4.60 ready to fire at the 1600m from the good gate and down to 54kg. He ran well last start but I did think he had his chance and I expected him to win that day. This is very suitable.

JETSET LAD is the value. His run in the WFA G1 10,000 was good. He finished near some very good horses and up to the 1600m with 57kg at this level is his go. I think $17 is very generous on Tatts.

WHITESAILS was very good on an unsuitable track last week. She can run well. TOKAMAK, LISTEN SON, VENTURE ON and DIADEME all worth thought but feel there are a few main chances as outlined.

*Favs hard to beat but JETSET LAD looks ‘overs’.

On Top: 3- TRANSPORTER  – 12- SOMEDAY

Value in the race-  4- JETSET LAD  @ $17

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Race 3:topline

A few horses with mixed form… Possibly from differing track conditions so this looks dangerous.

ACADEMUS has been the most consistent, gets gate 1 and all the favours but $2.80 ? Short enough in my mind. I think he is the horse to beat but I’d probably want a little better than that.

Stablemate LIMES has to be respected coming off the Hawkesbury Guineas win but that form can be mixed.

LUCKY HUSSLER terrific behind SIZZLING but probably has to go back again getting to the 1600m from an awkward gate.

3 horses here I am happy to have something small on at the big odds.

HEZA JETSETTER $26 won 3rd up last prep and you can forget his 1st up run this time in. 2nd up was better and back to a big dry track he will race a lot better than that price!

SAINT OR SINNER has improved each run this time in and he was very good just getting nosed out by a horse I have time for in Prince Of Penzance at Flemington. Freshened up for the 1600m and gets a sweet run.

LADY ECHELON $34 for one of our fav’s in Nat McCall. Massive step up in grade and may have been flattered by the fence last win but it was dominant and she is well and truly on the way up.

*ACADEMUS the one to beat but if you are looking for value bets or tri’s respect HEZA JETSETTER, SAINT OR SINNER and LADY ECHELON

On Top:  1- ACADEMUS

Value: 8- HEZA JETSETTER,  12- SAINT OR SINNER,  6- LUCKY HUSSLER

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Race 4:

As usual the Lightning looks better than a race worth just $50K to the winner..

Not a race I am keen to be putting the lunch money on but with the speed on this almost looks set up for DELAGO BOLT to explode late. This horse is an absolute bomb fresh and he gets a lovely run midfield from the gate. There is some quality engaged but I am more than happy to make him my only bet in the race e/w at the $14 on offer.

PENTASIA obviously the horse to beat after her very good win 1st up in the Chief De Beers. She again gets a nice gate and the 1000m probably plays into her hands as well.

EXCELLANTES, LIESELE and the very consistent RIVER LAD are my next best but this is open and I couldn’t talk you out of any.

On Top:  5- DELAGO BOLT  e/w @ $14

(2,4,5,6,7  Box trifecta)  guide    $20    =  33%

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Race 5:

Not gonna spend much time on this race. Can make a case for most of these as they all have some quality.

It’s one of those races where most people will stick with their personal fav’s, keep the faith and take a decent price.

Many have dropped off RISK AVERSION but I still believe this is her type of race, 1400m, pace on and she gets in ok at the weights. At $26 im not going to drop off.

FLORIA and PERFECTLY STUNNING are a couple I think can run well at nice odds and obviously the class of STEPS IN TIME and RED TRACER are always around the mark in these events.

*Stick with the one you believe in.

Value: 11- RISK AVERSION   @ $26

 

 

Race 6:  Kick off to the $200,000 Jackpot Quadrella on Tatts

First leg of the Quaddie and ROMANTIC TOUCH will be smacked in the betting. Obviously looked outstanding last start but does have to run up to that again. Should roll forward and has to be strong late over the 1600m at EF. On paper he looks to get an easy lead and if that is the case it may be all over, but there is one at value again I am very keen to be on.

PAXIMADIA is really coming to hand at the right time and I love his preparation into this. The tougher 1600m and the testing EF track will suit him perfectly. Snowden has applied the blinkers and at $13 I am again happy to just have one bet and back him each way.

Stable mates ZOUSTAR who I underrated and VILANOVA ran 1,2 in the Sires’ and should both enjoy the 1600m. SIR MOMENTS is the QLD hope. Initially I was leaning away from him but he is in form and still on the way up so has to be respected.

*Paximadia is the horse I expect to lap up the 1600m.

On Top:  8- PAXIMADIA  e/w  @ $13

Hardest To Beat:  1-ZOUSTAR,  7- ROMANTIC TOUCH,  3- VILANOVA

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Race 7:

The fact GONDOKORO and SURVIVED have drawn out a touch and that means they may just need a touch of luck at some stage and makes it a bit more interesting.

I have been keen on SURVIVED for a long time and I can’t completely  jump ship now but it won’t be as easy as I first thought. He is a real improving stayer and I’m not worried they have freshened him up a bit. 2400m around here is tailor made and he just needs some luck in running.

GONDOKORO was extremely good in the Oaks and Pat Carey knows how to get these stayers going! The 2kg she gets off the boys is a help and she actually looks a great price early at $7.50. I would probably be inclined to take her at those odds.

RYTHHM TO SPARE was 1600-2200m last time and surely takes a lot out of that run. Boss sticks and I’d expect a good run.

HONORIUS was strong late in the Grand Prix, is very well bred and does look as though he has improved this prep.

HAWKSPUR has had everything in his favour his last two starts but the fact is he has smacked them by good margins. 2400m around EF is harder than 2200m around Doomben but how can you knock him?

ELECTRIC FUSION is the best roughie in my eyes.

*Just see GONDOKORO as a better price so just have her on top of SURVIVED.

On Top:  18- GONDOKORO

Hardest To Beat: 4- SURVIVED

Others:  1- HAWKSPUR,  9- RYTHYM TO SPARE, 2- HONORIUS

buffering

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Race 8: THE STRADBROKE 1400m

Many punters have BUFFERING getting a sweet lead here. I do agree he leads and gets it easier than the 10,000 but don’t underestimate what a $1,000,000 prize will do to some connections, trainers and jockey’s minds.. Many may decide to ride horses upside down. It happens all the time.

BUFFERING should lead FONTELINA and horses like SPIRIT SONG, HOT SNITZEL and BELLTONE get the gun runs just in behind the pace.

As much as I do actually respect stats in this race I do believe BUFFERING can win. Although weights are similar between he and EPAULETTE I just see BUFFERING getting a far better run this time and you can bet he will look the winner at the 100m mark. The last 100m with the 58kg is the only little query.

SIZZLING was exactly that last week and gee he looks to be in well here compared to the other 3yr olds. He can make a long run and Munce will put him into the race around the 600m. BETTER THAN READY will be around the same spot in running and one of them may even tag the other into the race. Both will finish hard. I was a little surprised they didn’t apply the blinkers to BETTER THAN READY but Schweida knows him a hell of a lot better than me.

STREAMA is a quality mare and a genuine G1 horse. With the blinkers 1st time and fresh I suspect she can run well with a bit of luck in running.

YOSEI is a multiple G1 winner who has had little luck of late. EF suits and dropping to 53.5kg brings her into this and the blinkers go back on!

SPIRIT SONG and BELLTONE for Kelso Wood get beautiful runs in transit and get every chance. Interesting to hear Wood say BELLTONE should improve greatly from the run the other day which is a great sign. FONTELINA has form around Pierro and the 53.5kg is a nice weight for him.

*Another super race and value everywhere. I am just thinking SIZZLINGs ability to finish off may just get him over BUFFERING late..

On Top:  18- SIZZLING

Hardest To Beat:  1- BUFFERING,  17- BETTER THAN READY, 12- YOSEI,  13- BELLTONE

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Race 9:

What sort of track do we have? Have the rain come? Let’s hope not.

If the track is still dead or better MORIARTY is going to be very hard to beat. I am still not 100% convinced 2400m is his best trip but he does have the quality to win. His run last week at WFA was very good and he just needs some luck in running as he will go back.

LIGHTINTHENITE is a genuine chance here and the $15 was a nice surprise. I never thought he would be a 2400m+ horse but that looks as though it may be his go. The drop from the Doomben Cup WFA to 56kg in this handicap (and weaker race) plays into his hands and he is a must in Quaddies in my opinion. Boss should get a decent run midfield and there is no better distance rider in the land.

QUINTESSENTIAL won’t get it her own way with 57.5kg but she is just in super form and surely starts fav? She handles all conditions so any rain will only help her.

*They are my main chances but you can make a case for a couple of others:

ZURELLA- Ran along in WFA Doomben cup and drops significantly in weight.

ROTHERA- Just wants rain.

VOILA ICI- Showed signs he was back on track last week?

VERDANT- Will want pace on but lightweight chance with 53kg…

MID SUMMER MUSIC- Too bad to be true last start and may be forgivable.

*The fav’s hard to beat, just going with the value yet again.

On Top:  6- LIGHTINTHENITE @ $15

Hardest To Beat:  3- MORIARTY,  4- QUINTESSENTIAL

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GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Best Each-Way Race 6 No.8 PAXIMADIA  $13

(Not making them specials but GONDOKORO and DELAGO BOLT look value)

This weeks ‘Longshot’- Race 5 No.11 RISK AVERSION  $26

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BRISBANE QUADRELLA:

(Many will shorten their quaddies. I am simply going wide as I do think a few fav’s may be susceptible and I am going wider than I usually would and taking a small % for that reason.)

NOTE: This along with the preview will be updated after scratchings Saturday around 9am.

(This is on a DEAD track. Obviously rain will change this so I will hold fire. Horses like Rothera and Your Song have been left out but things change with rain)

1,3,7,8 —- 1,2,4,9,18 —- 1,2,4,12,13,15,17,18 —- 3,4,6,9tattsbet

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THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 2 No.6 DIADEME

Brisbane Race 4 No.4 EXCELLANTES

Brisbane Race 8 No.13 BELLTONE

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TATTS JACKPOTS and MARKET MOVERS:

EAGLE FARM Quaddie JACKPOT  $200,000

First 4 JACKPOT Race 8 EAGLE FARM- $300,000