On ‘The Punt’ Straddy + Derby Day

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Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’. STRADBROKE HANDICAP day!!

(There is a FULL STRADDY preview you can find on the ‘home’ page)

*This preview is done on a GOOD/DEAD surface*

*For those on Early you may be able to catch an interview on RadioTab Friday morning with Steve Hewlett if he has time and otherwise www.helter-skelter.com.au should also have one up. 

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*blackbook

BLACKBOOK Runners:

SATURDAY, 7 JUNE 2014

Cape Kidnappers – Eagle Farm R4 No.4 (1000m): The one to beat.

Belle De Coeur – Eagle Farm R5 No.13 (1400m): Step up in grade but on the way up.

Rock Diva – Eagle Farm R7 No.16 (2400m): Underrated, chance.

Rebel Dane - Eagle Farm R8 No.2 (1400m): Needs luck from gate but can win.

Knoydart – Eagle Farm R8 No.10 (1400m): Value runner.

Belle De Coeur – Eagle Farm R8 No.22 (1400m): (probably wont run here)

 

Race 1:

Tricky little event to kick off and will not be getting to involved early. A few different form lines to try and work out.

Think the horse over the odds is TOTALLY SURE $18 for the Schweida camp. Got well back last time but finished well, should be improved by the run and most inmportantly this is her first go around EF and I reckon it will suit her perfectly.

Happy to have her top of the locals and obvious dangers are the visitors LIMEHILLS, BERIMBAU and SPORST EDITION but the race does not end there!

*Something small on Totally Sure for an interest.

Value:  7- TOTALLY SURE   $18

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Race 2:

A mile race without a great deal of speed engaged. I’m assuming ELUSIVE STORM takes up the running and ALLKNIGHT SAINT is probably happy to take the sit on her back or sit outside her if a muddling tempo. That gives them a sneaky chance and reckon ALLKNIGHT SAINT is going pretty well.

CHOICE BRO is the horse I think they will be more positive on from the good gate and I’d expect him to settle in the first 4. Gates 10, 14, and 12 have meant they had no option his last few other than to go back.

Always had a lot of time for EIGELSTEIN (May run in SYD)and if the tempo is even he is good enough to run over them late. Great win with 59kg last start, Nash takes the ride and expecting a good run.

ELMANTOSH suited on the track he loves and plenty of others in the race but leaning to the others mentioned.

On Top:  5- CHOICE BRO

Next Best:    3- ALLKNIGHT SAINT,  6- ELMANTOSH

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 pineapple

Race 3:

Cleary the top two horses are the ones to beat coming out of the QLD Guineas and running the quinella in that race.

For LIBERTY’S CHOICE to finish off the 1600m there is no doubt in my mind they have to ride him a little quiet but I can’t see that happening? The day he sat back at Scone was a career best!

SIR MOMENTS just loves the roomy track, gets time to wind up and will have every chance to run over them late. Really looking for the 1600m and is clearly the horse to beat.

Although not exactly ‘value’ at the $5 but I feel ROUGH COPY is the one who can trouble the fav. His runs here have been all I expected over the trips. If you had seen his 1600m in NZ you would know he was always going to struggle to sprint over 1100-1200m. He just to a distance he will appreciate and they will have to be going well to hold him out.

The rest of them are a pretty even bunch and SMART HUSS at $17 could be some value for first 4’s.

On Top:  6- ROUGH COPY  $5

Hardest To Beat:  1- SIR MOMENTS,  2- LIBERTY’S CHOICE,  7- SMART HUSS

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 Matt Dunn Racing

Race 4:

Speed on speed on speed here! They will go like last week’s wages and CAPE KIDNAPPERS will start fav. This does look suitable with another good barrier draw and he should be able to sit in the first 4-5 just off the hot speed and get every chance to pounce.

HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME is obviously the class horse and has to lump the 61kg. Afraid to say ‘no’ but he can trouble them.

The run on horses should be LIESELE (quality mare with excellent fresh stats), METALLURGICAL (in form) and BIG MONEY who hasn’t finished worse than 2nd in 8 career runs.

*Not the value I was after because I can select away from Cape Kidnappers. Not getting too involved.

On top:  4- CAPE KIDNAPPERS

Others:  7- LIESELE,  9- METALLURGIGAL,  10- BIG MONEY

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Race 5:

This is about the hardest race of the day!

At the set weights and penalties you have to think DRIEFONTEIN and CATKINS actually get in ok against a few of these. DRIEFONTEIN has been up a while which is a slight concern but the 10,000 run was ok at WFA.

CATKINS is simply class. The freshen up should help and she will push forward from the gate.

BELLE DE COEUR and PLATINUM ROCKER come out of the Srikandi race and finished 2nd and 3rd on that occasion and meet at the same weights here. Both have good gates and not much between them.

COSMIC ENDEAVOUR beat Liberty’s Choice at Scone which matches up well after he ran 2nd in the Guineas last week. 58kg for a filly is a big ask but she is flying.

Really like McEvoys comments when he jumped off SEASIDE at Scone. Was obviously very happy with her but seemed as though she definitely had improvement in her going forward. That is enough for me to slightly lean her way at some value around the $13 mark.

*If the real CATKINS  (SCR) turns up she should win but I am looking for value.

Value:  7- SEASIDE

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 Gollan-Racing

Race 6:

Well the market seems to be all over this. BRAZEN BEAU is a short priced favourite and deserves to be off two super runs in the sunshine state. Missed the start in the Sires but finished off really strong. Nash should get a lovely sit from the good gate.

PRESSING gets blinkers on and with the talent he has he should be the X- factor here. It may turn him right around.

LOOKS LIKE THE CAT raced closer than usual because of the track and barrier last time. Will be ridden a touch further back, is in good hands with Gollan and Browne, don’t sell him short.

ALMALAD, not really sure what to make of him but has to be considered in everything I guess. He is the one we will find out a lot more about and for that reason I am respecting! TIME FOR WAR did beat the fav last start so obviously should be around the mark somewhere.

On Top:  1- BRAZEN BEAU

Next Best:  5- LOOKS LIKE THE CAT,  3- PRESSING,  6- ALMALAD

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Race 7:

Almost too many to go through here.  A really even derby and should be a good punting affair.

AMEXED settled closer last start and will go back to find his feet a bit further and should finish the race off better, he is a live chance.

VILANOVA is super when ridden cols, his effort in the Rough Habit was great when ridden closer but when he dropped out the back he exploded last start. He is hard to catch but if the same happens here it should be the same result.

It was PINSTRIPE LANE who was the unlucky runner in the lead up and who will improve on the bigger track. I don’t buy into the fact he would have beat the winner on that occasion but he should have finished closer. Targeted this race all along and spot on for the race. If you like him you must respect ELUSIVE RUNNER who two starts ago gave PINSTRIPE LANE a 3kg advantage and got within 2L.

Can’t knock SONNTAG’s form and he looks like he is well on the way up which is always a good sign.

Two fillies in the race and a few people want to knock them. TELEPATHIC was given no hope what so ever three wide the whole triplast time out and the effort was good. Although ROCK DIVA gets a bit of a sticky gate again Zac Purton takes the ride and I thought her run in the Oaks was outstanding. She may be up against here with some of these boys but I feel she is a really good chance, is rock hard fit and the $12 looks like value here.

On Top:  2- VILANOVA  +    Value:  16- ROCK DIVA

Hardest To Beat:  4- PINSTRIPE LANE,  1- AMEXED,  11- ELUSIVE RUNNER

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 MaluaRacing...

Race 8:

(Runner by Runner report for the Strdbroke can be found on the home page in another article)

I have SRIKANDI shooting across and should lead them up. I’d expect TEMPLE OF BOOM to try and grab her shoulder and get a drag across while CONSERVATORIUM will do his best to hold the fence but will probably settle for 3rd the fence behind SRIKANDI. That should all happen at a fair tempo but more speed will be created if CONSERVATORIUM wants to hold the front. RIVER LAD may also try his luck to tag them across and get a sit in behind them, if the pace isn’t that strong Oliver may even keep pushing for the front. EMBLEMS may try to hold a decent spot in the run while HUCKLEBUCK should get every favour in the world and there is every chance SPIRIT OF BOOM will try to find his back and get a tow into the race. Interested to see where RED TRACER settles, has the ability to roll up to the first four or so but probably better suited coming from further back/\.

 Many are gunning for SRIKANDI and while I really respect her she is going to have to be extremely good. She will have to carry 1kg more than Dane Ripper and 2.5kg more than La Montagna did when they won the race as 3 yr olds. On the other hand HUCKLEBUCK will carry the same weight as her and being a gelding obviously gets in better. Not much between them but I feel HUCKLEBUCK may get in better here and should improve sharply off his first up run into his 2nd up run (terrific 2nd up record 2 starts 2 wins).

The BOOM brothers are airborne and both horses will love getting to EF. Neither had won over the road but have great records around the bigger track with TEMPLE OF BOOM winning 5 times here. I would have a slight leaning to SPIRIT OF BOOM but there is a chance of showers and TEMPLE OF BOOM gets in better at the weights out of the 10,000 so there is only a split hair between them but the gate sends me the top weights way.

RED TRACER has the weight of a good mare but that is exactly what she is, a real top shelf mare who handles all conditions and in my mind the 1400m is about her ideal trip. Add to that her fresh record of 8 starts for 4 wins and 4 placing’s she is in this up to her ears. Needs a pinch of luck from the gate, I’m sure they would settle with 3 wide and cover if it happened.

For mine two of the best runs in the 10,000 were REBEL DANE and KNOYDART. Let’s start with KNOYDART who settled at the back, he ended up getting on the back of REBEL DANE and couldn’t really sprint with him, however he finished off a touch better. He was entitled to finish like that as REBEL DANE had taken off early. REBEL DANE went back on the bias track, he circled early and from the 350m-50m he was incredible and the effort had to tell. He goes on top for me as they are the runs in the lead ups that usually win the Straddy. Connections would have loved a gate to get a nice easy run in behind but he will nearly have to settle last from the gate. He always puts in and will be extremely strong late.

FAMOUS SEAMUS brings all the right form lines in and gets a gate to suit, he should be respected in trifecta’s etc.

*Can find a knock on nearly every horse. Have it down to 5 main chances and hoping for a patient and well-timed ride by Tommy Berry on Rebel Dane. That’s what may prove the difference in an even event like this, best ride wins.

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2014 STRADBROKE handicap Selections:

 2- REBEL DANE

18- HUCKLEBUCK

10- KNOYDART

4- RED TRACER

1—SPIRIT OF BOOM

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Race 9:

Looks a thin race with only a few chances and the market about spot on again.

MORIARTY found form last week and it is not surprising that coincided with getting onto Eagle Farm. Bigger track suits him and even with the weight he is going to be extremely hard to beat.

I cannot find PRECEDENCE! Now I am going to jump on board you can bet he loses a leg. To be honest though, he is probably racing more consistent than he ever has before. He strung some nice races (and wins) together in the Spring and has continued that on. He gets a 2kg turn around in his favour against ZEPHYRON.

ZEPHYRON is the new kid on the block and with the weight pull could prove a handful for the toppies. Another one exceptionally well handled by Team Hawkes.

MR O’CEIRIN and FLORIA possibly the best of the rest.

On Top:  2- PRCEDENCE

Next Best:  1- MORIARTY,  5- ZEPHYRON

 TattsBet

GIBBO BEST BETS:

No ‘Best’ this week but TOTALLY SURE around $17 and $4.50 worth thought.

And ROUGH COPY may get to an ew price if favorites are specked.

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BRISBANE Quadrella:

*Two options here, I have stood out Brazen Beau and Almalad leg 1. Other option would be to add 3,5, in the first leg if going wider*

1,6  —— 1,2,4,11,16 —— 1,2,4,10,17,18 —— 1,2,4,5

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‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 6 No.5- LOOKS LIKE THE CAT

Brisbane Race 8 No.1- SPIRIT OF BOOM

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STEVE HEWLETT’s Best:

Brisbane Race 4 No.4- CAPE KIDNAPPERS

Melbourne Race 8 No.7- AKAVOROUN

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***TATTS Jackpots**

  1. $5 for either Srikandi or Hucklebuck to win the Stradbroke Handicap.

Open Saturday 9am AEST*Available until TattsBet liability reaches $50,000. Offer valid for account customers (online and app only). One transaction per customer capped at $25.

 

  1. Stradbroke Handicap Feature Race Pack. The first 5,000 packs sold from Friday will receive a 15% bonus. (all selling channels)

 

  1. $500,000 Eagle Farm Quaddie jackpot (all selling channels)