Ramornie preview

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We usually try to keep the punting side of the sight for the weekends but I love the Grafton carnival and it’s usually a nice chance to find some well-placed horses. I will try to pick out the best few bets of the day over Wednesday and Thursday. If possible I will do a preview of the two features also, The Ramornie (Wednesday) and The Grafton Cup (Thursday).

*There is some rain predicted during Wednesday and they are saying more overnight and into Thursday. That can play a big role, so be patient and wait to see what happens.

**We have two Blackbookers – RIVER LAD + LOSE IT.

Here is a look at day 1 RAMORNIE DAY:

Race 1 No.5 -IN THE BACK ROW

*The carnival kicks off with a pretty weak maiden and AMPHLETT will probably start a short priced fav. It was scratched from the $100,000 maiden last Saturday in Brisbane (where it was a false fav) and comes here instead. Again I think it will be too short to back. The Bradley Herne trained IN THE BACK ROW ran well on debut and will take a heap of improvement out of that race and has been a nice trial winner at Doomben on 19/06.

Race 3 No 2- SAINT SAIALA

*Probably not the best race to get involved but Hammersley gets the ride and it will improve a lot 2nd up. The query is if it will still need one more run? If it comes up a decent price it’s worth thought but wouldn’t be taking skinny odds.

Race 5 No 4 DRIVING REIGN e/w

*There are a few horses who will be supported here including POSEN and THE MIDDLEWEIGHT who was backed off the map when winning last start. There is a fair bit of pace engaged and the tempo should be pretty strong. DRIVING REIGN was solid enough up north last start, gets Colless and gate 1 this start and is 3rd up. More than happy to have her e/w here.

Race 6 – THE RAMORNIE 1200m.

Not the usual ‘Ramornie’ pace on paper here but HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME, PIMPALA SECRET and MAGIC CASSIUS are the ones that will be on pace. MAGIC CASSIUS may well be the winner and the horse on the up, but being close to even money I think that’s far too short to get involved. I can live with myself if it wins without me, but it will be going in tri’s and quaddies etc. (Worth noting any rain would play into his hands)

HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME is a horse I have a big opinion of but it is a tough task taking on the older horses and there is a lot of improvement left in him. This may be his race in 12 months’ time.

There are a couple at nice e/w odds I think should be given plenty of thought. PROST would probably rather 1400m, but he has a nice barrier, Jeff Lloyd engaged and his run in the eyeliner was top shelf. He opened around $12 and that is generous and will get me involved ew.

RIVER LAD is very adaptable and he won a Group 3 last start and carries just 55.5kg in the Ramornie. Add to that he can race forward or back and handles all going, that makes him a big player at $6 on tattsbet.

RIVA DE LAGO really mixes form but in my opinion is he is simply a (good 3) horse and he needs that surface to show his best. If he can reproduce his Scone run he would be right up to this. At around $8 that seems his right price.

For those having quaddies and tri’s there are a few that can have a case made for them.. PERSIAN STORM is from a smart stable with Brisbane’s top jockey on top at $30.

On Top: 6-PROST

 (Only on a dead track. Slow or worse dampens his chances and I’d head to River Lad)

Hardest to beat: 3-RIVER LAD

Others: 9-MAGIC CASSIUS

 

Race 7 No 6 LOSE IT.

He  is a blackbooker from the Brad Herne stable and it is a horse I have a lot of time for. His last two wins have been exceptional winning by 3.5L and 4L. This looks a perfect race and I think he is the best bet on the program at around $4.40 on the www.tatts.com  early market. Rain is no concern which is also a bonus.

 

Early Quadrella numbers: (Finalised after 9:15am Wed)

3,4,5,6,11 — 3,4,6,9 —- 2,6 — 1,3,10,14

**That is the round up for day one of the carnival. Check in after 9am Wednesday morning in case of scratchings and numbers may have to be changed.

 

 

 

Good luck!