Saturday at Doomben ‘The Punt’

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Saturday the 10/2

DOOMBEN: RAIL 3m+

Surface- The track should be ideal, plenty of rain last week and hot dry weather this week. CHECK IN SATURDAY after 9am for final preview

 

*Nice to bounce of a good day at Grafton with winners for those who checked in or have signed up to the free newsletter.

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BLACKBOOKERS:

Race 2 IL RICCIO

Race 3 PLUMARO

Race 5 ANOTHER DOLLAR

W.A Race 4 ELEVEN SECONDS

 

 

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Race 1:

Look OUTRAGED is in great form and no surprise it’s after Lloyd got on his back. Looks the winner again here but you are being asked to take $2.05. Does jump 4.5kg on his last run and 5kg on the MM run so that’s just enough that I stay out.

GET ON THE GRANGE and IRISH OPTIMISM might be the next best. IRISH OPTIMISM pulled up lame last time so forgiving that and going on the win the start before that. GET ON THYE GRANGE has run well and now three runs into the campaign is ready to show best.

*Happy to watch on.

 

boomracing

Race 2:

Firstly a lot of people want me to comment on horses I have an interest in. LIFESAVER is going really well at home. We always thought he might have had more potential than Care To Think, however anything that could go wrong has gone wrong with this bloke and it’s been one thing after another. The other horse come back and went to another level, I’m really not sure what level this guy will get to but he’s likely to be aimed at a country championships heat and try to get a spot in the final.

SPEED:

Plenty of speed here with CAPTAIN PARKER, MR MARBELLOUZ, WHYCATCHIM, JEST EXCEL and DESIRABLE MISS all genuine leaders wanting to find the front!

WHYCATHIM run a track record and led them up at his 1st QLD run for the Currie stable. Was good through the line which was most important going forward. I have a couple of good mates in this horse in Shane Ciurleo and Matt Welsh so if we aren’t winning I sure hope they do.

IL RICCIO won by 10L on debut and was exceptional in a trial on Tuesday. He will love the speed on here and going by the way he gathered them up in the trial he could well be the horse to beat. He has led in both career runs but sat back off them in the trial? I’m assuming he tries to hold a spot on the hammer of the leaders.

KNOTTED looked like Rough Habit at Ballina but that form down there can be deceiving, looked good all the same and he will be strong late.

LIFESAVER probably doesn’t have the speed to go with some of these so will need a stack of luck and some sort of peach from Fradd. I’d be happy to see him finish off hard.

MR MARBELLOUZ looks very handy but only start away from Toowomba was beaten and I’d like to see him get it done before being too confident. In saying that he gets the 3kg claim and gate 1 so no excuses.

Have always liked SO INVINCIBLE and he returns a gelding which may well improve him out of sight! SECRET MO also returns a gelding and ran 2nd in a trial Tuesday also.

*Interesting race and a pretty handy class 3, might be a few winners come out of it moving forward.

On Top:  12-IL RICCIO $7

Hardest To Beat: 6-WHYCATCHIM, 8-LIFESAVER, 7-SO INVINCIBLE $41

 

 

Race 3: 

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Munce and Currie with first starters in town without trials always makes punting hard. Good stables and you simply don’t know how good they are!

The one we do know has any amount of talent is PLUMARO off the incredible Toowoomba win. Settled back, worked through and just put them away to win by 9+L. Very keen to see what she can do here but at $1.65 if watching and not punting for me.

 

 

Race 4:

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SPEED:

Good speed here with a heap pushing on and this isn’t the best starting point, for that reason it may be a bit of a trap race.

I’ve always had a good opinion of SNITZ $3 and he rarely lets you down. Gate 7 sounds fine but there is plenty of speed underneath him and he may get a bit out of his ground. In saying that, the speed will be good and should allow him to find the line late. The negatives are the 59kg and the stable are not a 1st up stable, striking at just 7.6% with fresh horses over the last 6 months.

UMBERTO $6 is another who might get back a little but the run fresh was very good. The Sunny coast looks a track that suits and even though he has performed well at Doomben I’d rather him on a big track. Needs some luck in running but can race well.

SHESEES EVERYTHING $6 was getting the reputation as a bit of a myth but the MM run was very good and then come out and won well beating Italia Bella. Lloyd a big booking but with the speed underneath he will have to make some decisions early because three wide from this starting point is nearly impossible.

Expected more of BASARA last time and at the price she can go around without me.

ABSOLUTLYPOSITIVLY has won 3 of 4 this prep and the win last time was good with a nice turn of foot to put them away quickly on straightening. From the gate probably goes back and makes his run with UMBERTO and co. Luck will play a big part here.

*UPDATING FRIDAY night and now have UMBERTO on top. Feel he can sit closer and thinking the fitness edge on SNITZ might be telling

On Top: 3-UMBERTO $5

Hardest To Beat: 8-SHESEES EVERYTHING, 1-SNITZ, 2-ABSOLOUTLYPOSITIVLY

 

 

Race 5:

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SPEED: No real speed at all which makes it a bit tricky. Sometimes when this is the case a few do their homework and change tactics, all of a sudden three or four push on and speed is ok. Hoping that’s the case. VAN WINKLE led and won last start so it’s most likely to lead them up.

PINCH PASSION looked home for all money and I have to admit I almost looked away thinking the race was over! He was run down by BOLD ASSASSIN who is $11 again here. PP meets him 1.5kg better off in this. PINCH PASSION is rock hard fit now, can box seat behind the speed and he will go for home after straightening and be the horse they all have to run down. Only one placing from 8 runs at Doomben the only little downside.

The gate is a concern for ANOTHER DOLLAR but really like what I’ve seen so far. The debut run was good, missed the start and got back in a slow run race but attacked the line to just go down. Next time out he raced EPIC RANT and GO DIXIE at the Gold Coast and was dominant that day showing a really nice turn of foot. What I liked was not just the turn of foot but the obvious improvement he took from the debut run. Simply backing Fradd in to give a good steer and happy to have something on around the $6 and $2.20 mark as I see him as one on the way up.

EPIC RANT seemed to be beaten fair and square by ANOTHER DOLLAR last time but this time has a 2kg swing in the weights and gate 1. Also ran pretty well last week behind Susurri. Has been hard in the market and beaten his last two as well as being on the back up off a Heavy 10 run last week. Plenty of positives along with negatives and I feel he will be in the money somewhere, I am just really surprised at the $2.30 quote.

GO DIXIE not the worst $51 pop and has been gelded. Good luck to some brissyraces supporters with their horse BRENDA.

*Think ANOTHER DOLLAR is on the way up while PINCH PASSION and EPIC RANT get the favours and hard to beat.

On Top:  5-ANOTHER DOLLAR $6

Hardest To Beat:  1-PINCH PASSION,  12-EPIC RANT, 3-BOLD ASSASSIN

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Race 6:

Just don’t like the race. Another I’m just happy to watch on.

May run the eye over after scratchings Saturday.

 

 

Race 7:

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SPEED:

Really hard to map a race like this when there will likely be 6-7 scratchings because of the big field. Will try to update the race closer.

Possibly a couple of bets here. You can make a case for plenty in the race however gates have put me off a couple of them.

DREAM MASTER did the job for us Australia Day and will again roll forward and try to dictate. Lloyd got it easier enough last start to take off on the point of the corner and stole a winning break, this is a harder race but deserves to start fav and is the horse they have to beat. Around the $4 is about right and you’ll get a good run for your money.

The value in the race for mine is RULING QUEEN at $21. This is no Khalama, but same owner, has changed to Gollan like the other horse and has trialled well twice leading into this. She is an 8yr old mare which is not usually a great betting play but her trials have been very good and even though beaten she ran some nice races when last in work and more importantly went through the line each time. If the speed is on she will be strong late and a winning hope at $21.

If GYPSY MISS was to gain a run she is also a decent roughie for exotics at $21.

*As mentioned its an open race but I’ll be backing DREAM MASTER at the $4 and also RULING MISS at $21.

On Top:  10-DREAM MASTER $4

Roughie: 21-RULING QUEEN $21

 

 

Race 8:

Pretty poor race to be honest.

At first look GLENDARA stand out on recent form and the drop in grade is ideal. However he hasn’t run a placing in his last 12 starts which just plays on my mind. The gate and the claim play to him here and should get every chance to break back through.

FIRST CRUSH comes off a BM90 win and gets the 3kg claim back to a BM75. You have to like that scenario and he was dominant on and through the line last time out. Needs a good ride from the apprentice which can be hard around Doomben from this starting point but with even luck he’ll be around the money again.

DOUBT DEFYING was very good last time in winning at the Sunny coast, this time he has gate 18 and will need a lot to go right early. Loves Doomben and just needs luck.

ROSIE POSIE is yet another with an apprentice and she will get back which isn’t an equation I like a lot but was unlucky last time out and will be one of the strongest late.

WHAT’S THAT is a stayer resuming but from the soft gate I’m hoping Byrne can land midfield and hoping that he can sprint well fresh. He won 2nd up at the mile last prep, takes it on fresh this time but like the fact he is getting a bit of weight of these and has the senior jock and gate 4.

UPDATED

*In a race with little interest I’ll have a small bet WHAT’S THAT @ $34 but will also be making GLENDARA a winning result.

on top :  2- GLENDARA

Roughie: 16-WHAT’S THAT $34

 

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Race 9:

SPEED:

I expect Lloyd to lead on SALMANAZAR and BRIGADOON RISE to be right on speed and they may well get every favour and fight it out, well they should.

Big money for SALMANAZAR when he walked them along and kicked last time out. They went slow and he had to win there but in saying that he might get it ok here and the booking of Lloyd is key!

BRIGADOON RISE just isn’t one of mine, not a bad horse, very consistent but I just keep looking at the last run and thinking that he got everything go right but couldn’t get the job done while plenty were having trouble getting clear behind etc. She hasn’t had strong slpits late which always concern me and just feel $2.30 is unders.

More than happy to back MR BELLAGIO at $13 as he is in form and I like the way he has gone about it lately. He has been going through the grades but has had good late sectionals his last few and the step to 1350m last time was ideal. Has bumped into Scallopini twice and Inspired Estelle once this prep but last start found the right race and belted them. Will need luck or a gem from Stewart but feel he is well worth a bet as he’s honest and with some breaks he’ll be running on out wide.

DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE and SUGGAN BUGGAN probably the next best and worth thought for quaddies etc.

*MR BELLAGIO scratched. Gollan pair dictate pace and can fight this out. DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE the one who can sit a couple of pairs back and be the value hope.

On Top:  6-SALMANAZAR, 11-BRIGADOON RISE

Value: 8-DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE

 

 

Race 10:

One of the better races and very keen to see how this plays out.

What do you do with PRIORITISE? Poor in my opinion his first two runs back. No luck his next two and they are forgive runs, but tell that to those who have backed him all four this time in. What he has going for him here is he should be able to park behind the leaders, possibly rail up on the corner and steal a break on the main rivals who are all likely to be a few lengths off him. Shouldn’t be an excuse this time!

Couple of pretty handy mares engaged in OF THE DAY and INSPIRED ESTELLE. Not much had gone right with INSPIRED ESTELLE and she looked ordinary in a couple of races I tipped her in early in the prep but blinkers went on and she was good from the back to beat Scallopini and Mr Bellagio (who runs earlier) albeit in an easier grade. With Lloyd and 52.5kg she will be hard to beat here.

OF THE DAY is a ripper and not sure why but maybe the fresh run on speed may have flattened her a little but you have to believe she is back on the last run. She travelled sweetly on that occasion and put them away easily. Has won or placed in 4 of 7 this track/trip and expecting her to run up to the last effort and be the one to beat.

OINK meets OF THE DAY 3.5kg better off and PRIORITISE 4kg better off. He does have an ordinary gate though and he might be back and wide. Sometime this track can play to the front and fence on hot days, keep an eye on that.

HANWRITTENS trial was very good but he is just hard to trust.

*Really handy race. Leaning OF THE DAY but not sure if I will punt or not yet.

On Top: 14-OF THE DAY $5.50

Hardest To Beat: 11-PRIORITISE, 16-INSPIRED ESTELLE,  10-OINK

 

 

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GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Best e/w Race 5 No.5- ANOTHER DOLLAR $6

Next Best: Race 4 No.3- UMBERTO $5

Couple at the GC (Not best bets but worth a flutter)

WITNESS $6

ZIN ZAN EDDIE $12

DIAMONDS ARE $2.90

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Race 4 No.3- UMBERTO $5

Race 8 No.15- BENFICA PRINCESS

 

STEVE HEWLETTS BEST:

 

SHANE CIURLEO:

Race 5 No.5- ANOTHER DOLLAR e/w

Race 4 no.3 -UMBERTO $6